The end of Ferrari, as we know it

Discussion in 'Ferrari Discussion (not model specific)' started by johnk..., Jun 16, 2022.

  1. JTSE30

    JTSE30 F1 Rookie

    Oct 1, 2004
    2,536
    Austin TX

    so, Denmark plans to remove all oil/gas for electricity production:
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1235360/denmark-distribution-of-electricity-production-by-source/

    So, that's 25.9% of the current mix to create electricity

    Denmark is still using quite a bit of gasoline everyday unrelated to oil/coal used for electricity generation...

    https://knoema.com/atlas/Denmark/topics/Energy/Oil/Output-of-motor-gasoline

    About 50,000 barrels per day

    And for each barrel, that is about 42 gallons and every gallon of gasoline create about 120,000 BTU - that is about 35kWh per gallon - and 50,000 x 42 = 2.1M gallons of gasoline per day or about 73.5 million kWh demand per day (yes, there is a difference between how far you go on a gallon of gasoline and per kWH)

    that's about 26,827,500,000 kWh per year (73.5M x 365 days)

    and current electricity production in Denmark is about 33,000,000,000 kWh

    That would seem indicate Denmark needs to nearly double its production of electricity to support 'only EV', that is not going to happen with the current plans, not even close..seems to be no thought of that at all.

    As an aside, it seems every household in Denmark is apparently going to be forced to purchase a new heater system by 2028 or at least purchase new equipment:
    https://www.energynews.pro/en/denmark-aims-for-energy-independence/
    The government sets the goal of achieving 100% green gas in heating by the year 2030. Thus, 400,000 households with fossil heating will have to change their heat source by the year 2028.
     
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  3. tbakowsky

    tbakowsky F1 World Champ
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    They can charge..no problem consistency is the question.
     
  4. JCR

    JCR F1 Veteran
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    Thomas Gold - Wikipedia
     
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  5. INTMD8

    INTMD8 F1 Veteran
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    Jun 10, 2007
    6,004
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    Your statement of "you will" implies everyone will have an EV, no? Which would mean every parking spot for a car driven daily would need fast charger access?

    Or droves of cars waiting at public chargers?

    I mean, over time anything is possible. Just can't imagine the above scenario possible in my lifetime.
     
  6. Ultima RS

    Ultima RS Karting

    Apr 4, 2022
    64
    FIFY. So long and thanks for all the fish.
     
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  8. 695

    695 Formula Junior

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    It is a little off topic, but I'll keep playing :)

    First of all, you forget the efficiency of the EV, in my EV I have the equivalent of 2.5 gallons of petrol. In a modern ICE (Mercedes E-class 2021), that would get about 62 miles. In my EV those same 2.5 gallons gets me about 270 miles. So lets for arguments sake just say, that an EV fleet would only need half the energy the ICE fleet needs (when in reality it may only be 25%). So the need for replacement energy is quite a bit lower than your calculations suggest.

    Second, I have no doubt that the production of clean electricity will double many times before every Dane is driving an EV.

    Third, you say that the need for electricity when all Danes are driving EVs will be double the production today (which we have already debunked, as the need may only be 25-50% higher), well the Energy Island will produce more electricity than Denmark is currently using, which would, in total, amount to - double - and it is ready in about 10 years. But I don't think every Dane will be driving EVs at that point.

    Regarding the new heater. It is not every household, but those that are heated by natural gas, which is just under 15% of all Danish households. Still a lot, but despite showing off your strong math skills, 15% is not the same as 100%. The decision is driven by the current situation with the European dependency of Russian gas and you could say it is a national security decision. And since a natural gas boiler has a 'life expectancy' of 10 years, every affected household would in that period need to change their boiler anyway. In many areas they will be offered cheap and clean district heating and the rest will need to switch to heat pumps, geothermal heat pump or something else.
     
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  9. Jaguar36

    Jaguar36 Formula Junior

    Nov 8, 2010
    705
    Cherry Hill, NJ
    12 hours on a 110V outlet gets me roughly 50 miles of range. Sure there are lots of people who have commutes that are longer than 25 miles a day, but the average commute is less than that. Mix in a couple faster chargers from time to time and its easy to make work. And then you don't have to deal with going to the gas station every week!

    Obviously if you're gonna buy an EV you might as well get a 220V/50amp circuit put in, its not all that expensive.
     
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  10. 695

    695 Formula Junior

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    Add to this that many cars just sit in the parking lot for 8 hours when people are at work and more and more employers have installed charging stations in the parking lots. Some employers pay for the electricity others charge, but they are there and more will come.
     
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  11. carnutdallas

    carnutdallas Formula 3
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    The biggest, absolute frustrating thing about EV for me, is at least a solar roof. Give me some free charging even if super slow, but climatize my car with ventilation. That tech needs to come up. Instead of baking my steel roof, how about adding some energy back.


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  13. Gh21631

    Gh21631 F1 Veteran
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    Right and how about regeneration? Enough to limit charging.
     
  14. 695

    695 Formula Junior

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    Peugeot 205 GTI had a sunroof with a solar panel that powered a fan back in 1984 :)

    But seriously, look how large a solar array you need on a house. You need about 25 square feet solar panel to generate 3.5 kW under full sun. So some active ventilation is about the most you can hope for.

    https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/solar-panel-car-roofs-are-they-a-good-idea
    'Karma Revero has 200W of solar cells on its roof, which would require full sun for 105 hours to charge the car’s 21 kWh battery and drive 50 miles.

    Most places around the country get about 5-6 hours of full sun equivalent per day, which means you could drive about 2.6 miles per day using just solar energy from the Revero’s rooftop solar cells.'
     
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  15. JTSE30

    JTSE30 F1 Rookie

    Oct 1, 2004
    2,536
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    Thanks for playing, I'll just leave it "distribution losses" must also be factored in when determining electricity usage...looks to be 6% at present:
    https://www.ceicdata.com/en/denmark/energy-production-and-consumption/dk-electric-power-transmission-and-distribution-losses--of-output
     
  16. Jaguar36

    Jaguar36 Formula Junior

    Nov 8, 2010
    705
    Cherry Hill, NJ
    A couple reasons they don't, I think the real reason is that folks want a glass roof instead. However, solar panels are somewhat fragile, and would likely have a high failure rate after 100k miles of vibration and bouncing around.

    That stated reason though is that it just makes more sense to put a solar panel on your roof, where it can get sun all the time. Which is true, but still I'd agree that I would like em on the car too. Even if it was enough to just counteract the vampire drain while the car is sitting.
     
  17. INTMD8

    INTMD8 F1 Veteran
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    Jun 10, 2007
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    Yes I'm reading 2-3 miles per hour range on 110v?

    Agreed if you're going to get an EV just get a fast charger but what I was talking about is -everyone- owning an EV and street parking.

    Still don't see how -everyone- gets a fast charger or an extension cord.
     
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  18. Jaguar36

    Jaguar36 Formula Junior

    Nov 8, 2010
    705
    Cherry Hill, NJ
    I get 4 miles per hour on a 110v.

    I think its a mistake to try and guess how -everyone- is going to deal with a huge shift like this when we are still in the early days. I think there will be lots of solutions that different folks can use. Maybe part of that is street parking chargers, but that doesn't seem great. One solution would be to just put fast chargers at grocery stores. Everyone needs food, and it takes long enough to go grocery shopping that you could get a full charge. I've started seeing this already actually. Malls, Target, and other shopping centers would be good to.

    Getting ahead of it though, right now for pretty much anyone with their own house, an EV is a better daily driver than a gas powered one.

    For Ferrari, I think an FF type car could easily be much better as an EV right now. Don't think the mid engine V8s would work though.
     
  19. 695

    695 Formula Junior

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  20. swc5150

    swc5150 Karting
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    This is what has driven me crazy for years about the energy destroyers! You/she are 100% correct, we will never run out of oil. Look no further than depleted reserves refilling with no new dinos...or Moon Titan's reserves where dinos never existed.
     
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  21. voncabbage

    voncabbage Rookie

    Mar 6, 2013
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    ira j.
    As long as you set it to "suck", not "blow"
     
  22. carnutdallas

    carnutdallas Formula 3
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    I hate how the manufacturers don’t take a stand. They seem to building cars for 1% of the population. I love how Hummer shows an ad in a sporting event for a $100k car that is selling for $200k and no one can afford in the audience. Ok maybe 1% can afford. Let’s go back to the VW days, creative ads for the Beetle. Free Love, enjoyable cheap transportation.

    I have had a little Honda Civic, one owner - pristine seriously. Sold to a buddy for a family 4th car - spare when kids home from school, etc. Had a 100k on it. We both love driving it. I have first dibs if he needs cash. Cold AC, 34mpg. Cost practically nothing to maintain. Can go anywhere without range anxiety. If gas stayed around $2-2.25 or less, it is perfect. We need more of that.

    Most of us here can buy any car we want. A $150k Tesla Plaid is stupid fast. And a stupid car, when you look at the entirety of the picture. I am proud of Musk. He took it to the OEMs and built a modern car company when very few have succeeded recently. He has become a global energy company and space explorer. I ordered a Kia EV6 when it opened day one for order. $60k, great looks, great tech. Great value for a pure EV. But stop forcing the wrong agenda on the average citizen. Stop increasing cost for a ridiculous fallacy. EV is a great local daily. Love the plug in at home and go. But gas cars, for practical people are still the best. They truly are. Ev’s may be there someday, but not anytime soon.

    I will close with this. The Pure EV Ferrari will be stupid, stupid, stupid fast. It will need all the safety and technology you can throw at it to avoid instant death to the average driver. A 488 Pista is way to fast for the street. Can’t imagine what an EV Pista will be? My 355’s provide the best smiles per miles period. Best sound. Best sensation of speed without super dangerous street manners - still fast and easily exceed speed limits, but if you know, you know. Forza Ferrari…..maybe :)




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  23. wildrnesxperienc

    Silver Subscribed

    Apr 9, 2022
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    The End of Ferrari, as we know it. To me this is more alarming and disappointing. I also feel like there will always be a market for ICE cars for a brand like Ferrari, even if it’s a smaller segment of their business in the future.

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  24. DSY

    DSY Rookie

    Apr 19, 2015
    13
    Regulators, not consumers, are shaping the new market. That’s a whole different argument. New consumers are being shaped, and the pinnacle of the driving machine ICE technology has been reached after 150 years. The new machine shaped by EV and autonomous driving will shape a new generation of consumers; however, in this new world, speed and driving emotions will not be a differentiation. This last technology is the biggest equalizer in the market; a Kia can be as fast as a Ferrari, a Genesis can be more luxurious than an Aston Martin, and a Tesla is more desirable than any other EV. Is branding going to provide an unfair advantage? I think the sustainability of the old business model will be tested. What we value today is not what we are going to love tomorrow. Still, one thing is sure an ICE will be scarce in 20 years. While there are buyers that appreciate a previous generation technology, those last edition cars will thrive in a collectors market as it has never existed before.
     
  25. BLACK CARS

    BLACK CARS Rookie

    Sep 23, 2016
    29
    Morning starts of my 488GTB in the garage with the exhaust solenoids open and listening to the sound makes the day. Hearing the whine of an electric motor is not no matter how fast and powerful. Perhaps there is little choice due to unsupported bad science but the world is intent like lemmings to jump off the cliff.
     
  26. paulchua

    paulchua Cat Herder
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    I've wondered why some folks are still so behind what is our daily reality. It comes down to market penetration. To you and me, it's as common as an iPhone, so if we mention things like "there's an app for that" - folks with Blackberrys literally won't understand.

    Give it time friend, the internet is forever, this forum is littered with bold proclamations that when I feel especially devilish - I bring back up to a past naysayer. Luddites are not something I argue that will be held in high esteem.

    ***

    It actually reminds me of the scapegoating Mondial 8 when fuel injection became standard (surprise, for a lot of the same reasons we see EVs are becoming standard today.) Over 40 years later, myths abound about that car that is still believed even today.
     
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  27. paulchua

    paulchua Cat Herder
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    You're not wrong. Sound is subjective, Who is anyone to judge or force you to like or not like any tune? I personally also enjoy the sweet sound of ICE.

    As for bad or good science, here's the beauty; Since the internet is forever, it's awesome that you've staked your position so pubically. I agree with you one group are lemmings, and history/time will illuminate which one.
     
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  28. voncabbage

    voncabbage Rookie

    Mar 6, 2013
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    Tell that to the Venusians...oops, you can't. They all melted!
     

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