The new CAFE standrds--four years and new cars have to average 55 mpg. | FerrariChat

The new CAFE standrds--four years and new cars have to average 55 mpg.

Discussion in 'Technology' started by bitzman, Apr 2, 2022.

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  1. bitzman

    bitzman F1 Rookie
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    #1 bitzman, Apr 2, 2022
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2022
    I thought we had time. By "we" I mean new car buyers. I thought that three or four years from now we'd still be able to get that rip-roarin' car with a V12 or V8 or twin turbo six.
    But that was before April 1st (I thought at first, was this some cruel April Fool's joke?) when President Biden came out with Draconian new standards for fuel mileage for automakers that to me spell the end of high performance cars in America (unless they are electric like tesla).
    It's all of course part of the plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions .

    The new "Corporate Average Fuel Economy" standards require manufacturers to achieve an average of 49 miles per gallon economy for passenger cars and light trucks beginning in model-year 2026.

    They also require average fuel efficiency to increase 8% annually for model-years 2024 and 2025 for the same vehicle types and 10% annually for model-year 2026.

    The huge raise in fuel prices was quoted as one of the reasons they are imposing these rules. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's is imposing the new standards because they believe they will "strengthen U.S. energy independence and help reduce reliance on fossil fuels."

    And they bragged that the standards would save drivers money, estimating that those purchasing model-year 2026 vehicles will enjoy 33% more miles per gallon relative to 2021 vehicles.

    Of course they always quote the benefits in the air, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg saying that the rule would stop 5.5 trillion pounds of carbon dioxide from entering the atmosphere through mid-century.

    The Environmental Protection Agency finalized its own economy standards in December, requiring automakers to reduce emissions output in new models beginning with model-year 2023 vehicles and to reach 161 grams of CO2 emissions per mile by model-year 2026, which is equivalent to 55 miles per gallon of fuel efficiency.

    Now my reaction is how is a company like Ferrari or Lamborghini or McLaren supposed to reach this standard in just four years? I would say they will have to drop V12s, drop V8s, even drop twin turbo sixes and go hybrid or full electric.

    Which ironically will start a lot of car buyers heading for the dealer now to buy their all time favorite while you can still legally register those cars. In the announcement I saw on TV I couldn't quite fathom who is going to pay the fine for violating these rules? The car maker, per car, or the car owner? But of course the new rules will have an enforcement mechanism.

    And I haven't found out yet how all this applies to used cars. What if, in 2026, you want to register a 1998 Ferrari that doesn't come close to these standards? Will they let you?

    I can see California, because of the presidential ambitions of its governor, instituting these standards even sooner. They already have the nation's automakers dancing to their tune and are permitted to set their own emissions standards.

    This whole thing could become a political football in the next Presidential election. Trump reduced the standards but Biden brought them back harder. Lots of car enthusiasts might decide who to vote for depending on whether the Presidential candidate supports the new CAFE standards.

    I can't believe it's happening so fast--the window closing on all the high performance cars that we enthusiasts know and love. The only way I can see some high performance cars surviving is by combining names, so say a Fiat-Ferrari would be under the Stellantis Fiat brand and not be subject to the Ferrari marque by itself being punished because there would be far more fuel-sipping Fiats to average out to a good score. (After they tried so hard to separate Ferrari from Fiat...)But for stand-alone high performance car makers, this is the end.... they won't have a prayer....

    Where am I wrong in hitting the panic button?
     
  2. Shorn355

    Shorn355 F1 Veteran
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    Anything I have to say on this would fall into P&R

    There are some good, passionate discussions in P&R on much the same subject- One recent thread regarding "Washington yadda yadda in 2030" has some excellent thoughts, passion and data- Check it out.

    In short- In my opinion and many others this will not happen as stated- It is an aggressive fire line that will move and get embroiled in legalities (many you pointed out) and end up with some compromise.

    Cheers :cool:
     
  3. JTSE30

    JTSE30 F1 Rookie

    Oct 1, 2004
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    Such MPG is rarely realized in a motorcycle...not possible for any "light vehicle fleet", cannot occur with combustion only, yes, there are some very small cars with small engines that can muster 55MPG or more, but not a typical car and definitely not larger vehicles.

    Most car models have been abandoned, they no longer exist, the predominance are crossovers, suv and trucks. There are exceptions, Toyota for one.

    10 years ago the regulation was set for 54.5mpg by 2025, then interrupted, now back again, so, I think manufacturers knew this was the direction and they will not be surprised. That's why the rush to EV by 2024 for many so they can continue to make combustion but only if they can manufacturer and sell sufficient quantities of EVs to balance the fleet average.

    However, just like the 'gas guzzler' fines imposed on manufacturers, that will likely continue, the fines are passed on to the consumer but they are imposed on the manufacturer. So it is likely combustion only or mild hybrid (48v) will continue for some models, but for how long?
     
    fatbillybob likes this.
  4. bitzman

    bitzman F1 Rookie
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    Want to see what is under P & R but what is P & R? Thanks,
     
  5. boxerman

    boxerman F1 World Champ
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    The cafe standards if not met mean a manufacturer pays a fine for the mpgs missed. Therefore, Ferrari could get 10 mpg and just have say 15k in fines per car, which is a minimal upcharge on a 400k car..

    On a less expensive car or truck 15k in fines is material. But then the tech to get better mpgs costs money too. The more the standard is raised the bigger the fine for the miss and its therefore worthwhile to build a 5k more expensive car to get the mpgs than pay the fine.

    meeting the standards or paying the fine costs $$$, that means the delta to an electric car purchase is less, add to that inflated fuel costs and the (distorted) economics of an electric car looks good.
     
  6. MK1044

    MK1044 Two Time F1 World Champ

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    The only way I can imagine this goal being met, would be to move mostly to electric vehicles. This would give only the appearance of fuel efficiency, since the fuel for propulsion would be consumed where the electricity was generated. (Somewhere other than the car).
     
  7. paulchua

    paulchua Cat Herder
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    CAFE has this strange conversion to real world, never understood it. So 55 MPG translates to something far lower. If somebody here can explain it to me, much appreciated.
     

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