These price increases are truly rediculous

I'm not sure why you would say that.

There are lots of smart people with lots of money who have some spectacular cars because they love them regardless of what they're worth.

Similarly, there are lots of people who are highly negative who don't have Ferraris who love to criticize those that do.

I know who's having the better time.

I have a few friends and business associates who have made a lot of money. They're all pretty damn smart. They certainly don't begrudge other people's successes and they certainly don't bemoan the good fortune of others.

 

You took what I said out of context. I think you knew what I meant and you decided to take a jab at me.

 

I have found that most successful people don't.

 

After the 1980s bubble burst were car prices still higher than they had been before the bubble?

 

for the most part they were not higher.. after the collapse then before the increase although that is hard to determine because they bubble tends to sneak up on you ..
THis go around things seem a little different in that a car can double in value in a few months which just is not natural in any investment..
re the classic cars I believe some are now over priced and if there is a bubble they will soften however the days of a 300000 daytona are over forever now the daytona has always been the bell weather of classic ferrari prices .. although if they do fall from 800 to 600 is not a real problem .. that recovers...
I think the bubble is in any car that doubles in the previous 12 months from the collapse whenever that may be..
I also think the late model (i.e. 599s etc) that have shot up dramatically will likely collapse first. and I think those prices are being manipulated which is easily done by dealers and auction houses ... similar to what happened to muscles cars in the 2007 range.....and those cars car drop dramatically in an instant..
re late model it is two easy for the factory to manipulate those prices by coming out with a new version i.e. limited F12 (f12 GTO ) things like that which can manipute the prices..of say the 599GTO... gos on and on..

 

Absolutely not. My point is that you have no idea of anyone else's motivation to buy a car. You insert your own supposition and premise and assume that if they're buying a car in this market they clearly have money but not intelligence because you're sure some coming price collapse is imminent which will be some sort of financial apocalypse to them.

First, why do you or anyone else car how some financially successful person that you don't even know spends their money. The only way I could possibly see its having relevance is if you were actually buying a Ferrari and someone came in at the last minute and made a dramatically higher offer, much higher than market, on the car for sole (and fully disclosed) purpose of reselling the car later at a higher price. But that's not the case. As I said, you make your own uninformed premise and just go with it.

Secondly, no own knows what the market will do. Make your own opinion with your bank account and wallet. Leave it to others to make their own beds. Time will sort it all.

Lastly, if someone buys a car because they want it, they're not going to care if the market moves up or down. I have a cars that have gone up several times over what I paid for them. Am I selling? Of course not. I bought those because I always wanted them. You think I will lose sleep if the market on them falls to all time lows? Of course not. I will use them exactly how I use them now.

This ridiculous judmentalism from afar is just so stupid to me. Just because you or anyone else can't afford these cars, it doesn't mean that the people buying them today will either regret it or get hurt if the prices contract. In fact, I am sure a great number of them won't even care.

EDIT: And for the record, I have not bought anything in this current market and unless something very specific that I've wanted for a long time comes up at a price that I feel okay with, I won't be. However, far be it for me to judge anyone for buying or selling today. Whatever they're decisions, I am not the one who has to live with the consequences.

 

Very true statements. Always focus on YOUR goals, and never dwell on the success of others, just create your own. Best business principles I know.

 

I just sold a rental property to Chinese investors. They were a REIT for Chinese investors. According to my realtor friends, Chinese investors are the main source of escalating real estate prices in some areas. I got six offers the first day - with no repairs or improvements - all but one over asking and value, all cash, and four from Asian investors.

 

Take off your sunglasses . Really "successful" people will undertake everything to be "greater" than the neighbor (except killing, of course). Because their wealth, taken as such, is anyway multiple of that what a somewhat modest person will spend in 100 (or 1000) lives. So the greatness is just defined by whether you have money for 100 lives to spend or for 110 lives. Not true for all, admittedly.

I know some people, who will today buy a car for more or less any amount and tomorrow complain that 20,-- cost contribution to a non-profit eat and drink all you can event is too much and call for boykott. Just had these days such a discussion, head shaking.

 

From a very long-term perspective, prices will keep rising. The question is the rate over any given period of time.

If we see a pricing correction of say ~50%, we might then see those values in turn recover over a 10 year period (or less, or more).

A correction will not likely come independent of some outside catalyst or the market hitting a tipping point, where prices plateau and flippers start to panic and minimize losses.

The fact that these cars are (I presume) mostly cash bought, I personally doubt a crash would be severe without a broader economic / cyclical decline, however... a smaller decline (10-20%) is still possible, but hard to see people motivated to transact so long as their wealth elsewhere isn't under threat...

 

I agree w/most of this. I don't really care about people buying cars at whatever price they want to. Thankfully, there is no systemic risk involved in this behavior; it's a highly isolated market.

Also, many people w/money are intelligent. It makes sense -- smart people are able to obtain more resources for themselves. Hard work can also be correlated. And then, there are large chunks of luck (luck of birth, luck of circumstance, etc) and luck is nearly always an element. Many people with money, however, are either A) not (traditionally) intelligent and/or B) their intelligence doesn't translate to wise financial decisions. Either A or B can result in poor choices with respect to financial management. Nothing wrong with that either.

Then, finally, even (traditionally) smart people get emotional and have ego. If ego outstrips intellect, then they are likely to be over confident. I've been surrounded with extremely intelligent people for most of my life. I'm no longer surprised by the complete idiocy that high-IQ can engage in, because their ego outstrips their IQ (they think they're smarter than they are). The results can be disastrous. It is like having a car with a great engine and terrible tires / brakes.

As for commentary / criticism. Commentary around what others are paying for cars is just that, commentary. Same as anything on these boards. We can criticize style of cars, engineering choices, corporate direction, etc etc.... and I think it does make sense to critique choices being made on the greatest determinant of feasibility for people to get the cars they want: price.

I would personally love to see F40s priced at $250k or $500k. My personal bias would be that this would make them far more affordable. Once I owned one of those cars, my personal preference would be for them to skyrocket in value... This much is obvious and clear (downsides too, of course, but overall that's what I'd want to happen). Let's say (and this *may* be hypothetical) that I have significant real estate assets in a couple of markets. Now, I see those markets as bubbles. My hope / personal interest is the opposite of these cars... I'd personally rather have the real estate go up even further in value. In this case, however, I fully recognize the bubble and I would 100% not put more money into real estate and I think my current holdings are materially overvalued.

My rational action should be to sell and then rent instead. For personal reasons, this is easier said than done.

I can separate these divergent feelings / views. A market correction would make certain things more obtainable at prices I feel are fundamentally more correctly aligned with reality. Other personal resources would be negatively impacted. Net/net, I'm better off with the market as a whole continuing to go up, because real estate is worth more than (most) of these cars.

I do, however, know that me sharing my own personal views on the market won't have any impact on the market. At all. Whether I share (or read others' views) doesn't change reality, but it does make me much more informed. It informs me of those holding bullish and bearish views, and I can re-assess the risks in my own mind.

It's all interesting and all useful and constructive.

 

I think that the presence of a three pedal manual gearbox makes more of the car infinitely rebuild-able, which was a brilliant mention of yours from earlier in this thread.

 

I think this is spot on. I just received an email ad from a midwestern dealer listing a 2011 Porsche GT3 RS, 5500 miles, complete with sat nav (!), at $439,900. A few years back that would have bought an original 1973 911 RS 2.7 (without sat nav but possibly with racing history.)

I agree, not worried that Daytonas will ever fall back $300K, but at $800K a buyer really has to want the car and be prepared to hold it for many years. And yes, late models are always available in perfect condition, so no collector value other than being made to be collectible.

 

Maybe, although a dual-clutch gearbox is probably more rebuildable than the other proprietary computers and gadgetry that keep modern cars on the road.

I'm taking my 356 to lunch today (if the weather clears up...), to celebrate its 59 years in the US. I don't know what's being made now that could ever have that kind of longevity. Not sure the guys who restored my gauges would do the same for the instrument cluster in a 599/California.

 

my brother has been trying to buy a house in Dallas for months in the $200-250k range. Put a few full price offers in, but when they go to "highest and best offer" after a day on the market you know full asking price isn't going to cut it. In my observation it is ripe for unethical behavior for agents but it is what it is, until it isn't and people that paid too much will be crying the blues and we will hear terms like jingle mail all over again. Zero sympathy for these people...

I guess I am a simpleton but if someone is asking X for their property (not an auction, a listing), the first person that comes along offering X should have bought it pending an inspection. It isn't really an offer, it is an agreement from the buyer to pay exactly what the seller wants.

On one property they upped their bid $20k, missed it by $1000. And coincidentally enough, the RE agent also listed the buyer's house too. Quid pro quo perhaps?

I'm not sure how it relates to collectoer cars except where there is easy money to be made, you will see unscrupulous weasels involved.

 

I just had a brilliant idea: CCIT
(collector car investment trust)

Get in on the ground floor of this new financial vehicle, pardon the pun. Parties interested can just ship their collector car to our warehouse in Nigeria for their buy-in portion of this new instrument. Make sure you include the keys and title. We at CCIT will amass a large collection of historic and exotic cars. Eventually enough to sway the entire market when we have enough of a particular model.

Keep in mind there is no free lunch and everything has compromises. Here is the one for the CCIT. Minimum length of contract is two years. During that time officers of the CCIT may elect to sell your individual car to other enthusiasts for a profit. We reserve the right to replace it with a similar model should you eventually opt out. Similar model may seem ambiguous by design, but with all the potential upside for the trust value why worry about such small things?

Say for example you send us a 288GTO or F40. Should we choose to sell it we would give you the option of an Aperta or maybe two three-pedal 599!

 

I have no problem with anyone commenting on the market or prices. That discussion is fine, even warranted. My point is that when people who have no clue what it's like to own or care for a Ferrari, especially long term, make open judgements that the people buying in this market are stupid for doing so is a little too much for any of us veterans to handle.

I go to al the major auctions. I have bid, bought, and sold at them and at this point, I know a great many of the players. I know these guys and even I wouldn't make any presumptions about their motives or intelligence for participating in this market, let alone someone who has proven his lack of knowledge on this forum over and over.

So we can make all the comments we want about the prices and trajectory but let's keep the incredibly uninformed personal judgements about the buyers intelligence and motivation out of it. There is no place for that on Fchat.

 

Change a few specifics in this post and you could be talking about Las Vegas or Orlando real estate...in 2005.

Collector cars are clearly, unquestionably in a bubble. When cars without history, without rarity, and without any real differentiating desirablility have doubled in price in a short time, it is a bubble and by definition unsustainable. Some buyers probably are enthusiasts and realize they can afford the elevated prices and can buy almost anything except another day breathing. To those that pay their money, enjoy the hell out of the car while you can. A few may make a fortune riding the wave and selling to the greater fool. Good for them. But there are some, and I would guess more than a few, that will lose a bundle when the bottom falls out because they are convinced that red Italian or that German air-cooled tulip bulb could never go down from where they are today. They are making the current problem worse, which means the eventual crash will be even more precipitous. It is a situation they helped to create.

The number of truly collectible cars (meaning seven figure valuations or near it) remains very small. I don't buy that experts are still buying in. On the contrary, they may be talking their book to sell at the top.

 

Here's my little story.

Purchased a 328 in 2006 for $41,000. Sold it in 2013 for $37,500. This was similar to most of the car deals I've made - enjoy something for a while, then sell it for an acceptable loss.

I got out of my 328 because I have limited funds and space, and I wanted to experience other cars. Obviously, in hindsight, I sold two years too soon.

The tremendous rise in Montezemolo era cars (mimicking the rise in Enzo-era cars immediately after his death) coincided with my realizing that I missed the experience of driving a Ferrari. And with everything rising, if I wanted to get back in, now is the time.

I approached AJS328 (champion Ferrari-buyer) for advice on something that would be fun but still fiscally safe. He told me that the Serie Speciales seemed underpriced, and could be had in the $50k-$75k range, though that wouldn't be long.

So I bought a resale red 348 SS. Due to arrive this weekend.

If I hold this as long as I did my 328, it'd be great if there is appreciation. But even if it is another flat market, it should be a fun ride into the next decade.

 

Lots of GREAT insight on this thread.

However... I have the answer to popping this bubble. I know EXACTLY when the bubble is going to pop... at least the Porsche bubble.


It will happen EXACTLY when I buy one. The moment my wire clears on me finally purchasing a Porsche... the market will collapse to negative numbers.

Its a fact.

Porsche guys should send me money to buy a ferrari... or TWO... to keep me from buying a Porsche. contact me for the paypal address.

 

even better if I a porsche for sale I could sell it to you for the highest price maybe a record just before the collapse and for once it would have worked out perfect for me... ...
but just my luck I don't have one i want to sell

 

We could have been brilliant together. LOL

 

Hahahaha ahahahahaha!