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Thought experiment about EV cars

Discussion in 'Ferrari Discussion (not model specific)' started by italiafan, May 23, 2022.

  1. italiafan

    italiafan F1 World Champ
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    (Just musing about the future as an ICE diehard fan here...)

    Imagine that EV technology continues to improve and a few breakthroughs then accelerate their capability massively in a few short years. As these hurdles are crossed production will increase and general costs will come down.

    Suppose the electrical grid becomes a “non-issue.”
    Furthermore, suppose it is routine to have a cruising range of 1000 miles, and a recharge time of 10 min with a plethora of charging stations available everywhere. Correspondingly, petrol will be refined less, there will be fewer petrol stations to come by, and increased costs for delivering a product for a dwindling market.
    Remember, this is just a “thought experiment” about what it would take to convert you to being an EV enthusiast so for now put aside lithium issues (maybe a whole new tech gets developed) or environmental battery disposal issues, etc.

    What then continues to make the case for purchasing an ICE vehicle?
    It can only be sound, right?

    EV yields tremendous power.
    EV has fewer moving parts and thus better reliability.
    ICE cars won’t necessarily be more beautiful since exterior and interior designs can be whatever they decide to build.
     
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  3. Jaguar36

    Jaguar36 Formula Junior

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    Sound, Vibration, Smell, non-linear power curves.

    For decades car manufactures have been working to eliminate these or just fake them (sound). Now that EVs have perfected most of them, the ICE makers will go the other way and try to accentuate those factors.

    Its kinda like how for the longest time craftsman tried to make their goods (think knives, or furniture) as perfect as possible. With the advent of industrial manufacturing 'perfect' became cheap, while hand-made goods became expensive. Therefore to show-off that their goods were handmade craftsman have started purposefully showing off things that previous would have been considered defects.
     
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  4. JTSE30

    JTSE30 Formula 3

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    Campfires vs electric appliances...both can be used to produce the same result (prepared food)...I say, to each his own, as each serve a completely different purpose in satisfying experiential desires...no reason for one to eliminate the other
     
  5. italiafan

    italiafan F1 World Champ
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    I agree.
    Just wondering if any advances would then “convert” a diehard ICE enthusiast such as myself.
    And for me the answer is yes, the technology can advance to the point I would just “throw in the towel” and not fight “progress.”
     
  6. JTSE30

    JTSE30 Formula 3

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    That's it, "progress", it is not 'progress', it is being forced, top-down fashion, by regulations specifically designed to eliminate choice (combustion vs EV), so much so, that "ban" is where the regulations are all leading to....if EV was all that much better there would be no regulations to force it into being the only choice.

    And I know this is a 'thought exercise', but, you do realize the entire EV fiasco is designed to fail, car companies will go out of business/cosolidate for lack of raw materials and consumer demand. There is a very political angle to it all and it is not for "our" benefit in any way whatsoever.
     
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  8. schao

    schao Karting

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    Interesting thought experiment. For me, it comes down to how one views their automobile; is it a tool or is it something one derives pleasure from? If just a tool, then ones choice of car will be based on factors similar any other appliance (laundry, vacuum, refrigerator, stove, etc.). This is complicated somewhat in that a car is a large and high cost item, so parallel items would include boats, RV's, motorcycles, etc. and the full range of experience and how one derives pleasure from owning/operating that item becomes the more important factor. I can see the majority of cars being EV in the future, but it may not be in my lifetime (I'm a baby boomer) as the current configuration of an EV is not ready for mass adoption, let alone the necessary infrastructure.
     
  9. italiafan

    italiafan F1 World Champ
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    I know you know it is a thought experiment; nonetheless, I think you are missing the spirit of my musings. I’m wondering what it would take to make a believer out of me. That implies that at some point in the future the technology will have to have “progressed” to some point I will turn away from ICE and embrace an EV. In all likelihood were I to do that it would at a minimum be a GT car, not likely a sports car—though I do recognize there may be an option there as well.

    The thing is with a “thought experiment” you can carry it out to its extremes and then readdress the same question: “is now enough?”

    EV with 2000 mile cruise range on a battery the size of D-cell battery.
    You exchange spent battery for a new one by plugging it into the center console, takes 30 sec. You order them by the dozen from Amazon.
    Electric motors good for 2+ million miles.
    It has different computer-generated drive modes that can mimic anything from a Rolls Royce to a 1950s Ferrari race car it its power characteristics depending upon your mood.
    Pininfarina designs the car and it is breathless to behold.
    Gas stations are few and far between and because of lack of demand it is now $30/gallon.

    You have no interest even then?
     
  10. Jaguar36

    Jaguar36 Formula Junior

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    You're missing the point that for most folks who own their own houses, EVs are just plain better cars than gas cars now. Quieter, smoother, instantaneous response, refueling at home, less maintenance, and stable fuel costs. Heck, excluding the very small sliver of the market that is lightweight sports cars, the current EVs are more fun to drive too.
     
  11. JTSE30

    JTSE30 Formula 3

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    So, for the (approx) 40% that have no regular ability to plug-in overnight, what of them? Just too bad so sad? EVs are definitely not for everyone for many reasons. And being forced by regulations is not to everyone's benefit.

    As for EVs being more fun to drive (overall), definitely subjective and there is no universal agreement.
     
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  13. Texas Forever

    Texas Forever Five Time F1 World Champ
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    No brainer for a daily driver.

    Ps I love it when you say "plethora." :)
     
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  14. JTSE30

    JTSE30 Formula 3

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    Correct, even then, your "solutions" do not address most of my concerns, only being heavy (via battery weight) is resolved by your use of "physics defying batteries".

    In your list, only $30/gas is an 'issue' (which would only happen if forced by taxation, please understand that if oil use for transportation demand shrinks so does the production (somewhat) as does its price -- do recall the entire real world relies on petroleum for a vast array of non-transportation-fuel products, demand and production will continue forever and I can have 55-gallon drums delivered so I do not need to 'go' to a gas station).

    Here are some of my many "EV" concerns

    for 'fun cars', for me there is no joy in driving an electric sled, there is no passion for me, no connectedness, only detachment, no sounds, no feel of the engine, no smells, no engagement of the drivetrain, just a dispassionate set of electric motors spinning away

    for 'daily drivers' (as well as fun cars) there are more concerns

    burning down the house (currently technology EV fires most often occur while charging and they are extremely toxic as the fumes can kill and impossible extinguish, must burn itself out or be completely submerged)

    reduction in freedoms such as being controlled and tracked/spied on by the manufacturer, government, criminals (speed limiters, automated braking, "assistances" such as lane-keeping, geo-fencing, manipulated while in-use)

    and, just on principal, being forced against my will to use such a device that does not align with me, that is, elimination of choice
     
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  15. JTSE30

    JTSE30 Formula 3

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    Additional thought, carry your thought further, say all combustion cars are banned from everywhere, public and private, and all you can legally drive is EV, well, in that case, I would simply have no further interest in anything other than 'basic transportation'; further still, say I was born into such a world, cars would definitely have no purpose other than point-a to point-b, there would be no visceral thrill such as seeing and hearing the opening of the Cannonball Run (movie).

    When the whole world is using "Minority Report" cars (that are hyper-controlled, automated, etc) who would desire one beyond basic transport?

    It seems the current "exotic/performance" manufacturers are trying to "force" EV into the ideas/experiences conveyed by combustion cars, and it does not work. The Rimac and other 'exotic' EVs will find few owners and Ferrari will become something else in 20 years, if anything at all.
     
  16. ipsedixit

    ipsedixit Formula Junior

    One thing that is missing in your thought experiment is weight.

    If battery weight can be minimized or be pari passu with an ICE weight, there is really nothing that will hold back an EV vis-a-vis an ICE car. At least for me.

    People always talk about lower weight or the NVH in ICE cars, but it's really about what they are used to. Modern ICE cars drive nothing like supercars even from a decade or two ago. Compare a modern Huracan to a Countach -- one is like a luxury Bentley and the other (the Countach) is basically a modern day torture chamber by comparison. Yet, by all accounts I am guessing most folks would prefer the Huracan to the Countach.

    Even now, even with the added weight penalty and the lack of charging infrastructure and limited range, I personally find EV more and more compelling, especially as a sports car.

    I got to drive a Taycan Turbo S on the track for several sessions and the only thing holding that sucker back was weight -- which burned through the brakes and tires like they were cotton balls.

    Of course like with everything in life, YMMV.
     
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  17. Jaguar36

    Jaguar36 Formula Junior

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    Keep in mind though, the Taycan is a 4-seat sedan, its closest cousin is the Panamera, which is about 4,700lbs. The Taycan is about 400lbs heavier, which is not nothing, but the Panamera would be chewing through tires and brakes too.
     
  18. JTSE30

    JTSE30 Formula 3

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  19. ipsedixit

    ipsedixit Formula Junior

    Oh, yes, I agree with you.

    My only point was that in current state of art of battery architecture, an EV will always suffer a weight penalty vis-a-vis an ICE car, and that weight penalty is really highlighted when one pushes the car at anything above, say, 5/10s.

    If Porsche can make an EV Cayman and keep it at under 3200 lb that would be a really intriguing and compelling case.
     
  20. ipsedixit

    ipsedixit Formula Junior

    Who would track a Panamera? I dunno, people who like to track their cars?

    As to charging, my hometrack has several EV charging stations (Level 2), so no problems there.
     
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  21. JTSE30

    JTSE30 Formula 3

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    I have been to many PCA track days, Panamera's have rarely appeared...

    As for L2 charging, isn't that like 20 miles of charge per hour?? Seems barely useful for a track day? And are there 50+ of those charging stations available at your home track? (a good sized track day is close to 200 cars)
     
  22. John Glen

    John Glen Formula Junior

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    And people used to say "there's no way I'm getting rid of my horse for one of those new fangled motor buggies" The price of fuel will drive the change to electric, plus the fact we all can't keep "pissing in the pool"
     
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  23. ipsedixit

    ipsedixit Formula Junior

    I never bother with PCA.

    It's a private track; members only. Rarely more than 10 cars in any given day.
     
  24. 308 milano

    308 milano F1 Veteran
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    Newsflash for anyone moving to Bozeman Montana. Montana has real winters, -30 below with the need for 4WD just to get the kids to school many mornings is common place, and I’m talking public streets. There’s been a couple -50 below mornings when my Chevy with a brand new 1000 CCA battery just about didn’t start and then the need for the vehicle to stay running most of the morning just to stay warm.Be interesting to see how the industry addresses cold winter operation. Not to mention what kind of bite 4WD takes out of battery performance. Going to take a hell of a lot of convincing for me to part with our two suburbans.
     
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  25. paulchua

    paulchua Cat Herder
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    Digital by almost every objective measure beats the darrenville vpm, yet here it is. The key thing you’re missing is nobody is saying you shouldn’t like it better then Spotify.

    Do you.

    Can you say the same?
    Image Unavailable, Please Login
     
  26. ScottS

    ScottS F1 Rookie
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    Jorge do you know what a plethora is ?



    Who gets the reference?


    The focus group I did for Ferrari was Interesting because it highlights the possible advantages of the EV platform. Such as design, speed and maybe handling. These have not been realized yet.

    And that gets to what do we love in cars that makes us love cars ? Is it being vintage ? Is it ? What is it ?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
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  27. paulchua

    paulchua Cat Herder
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    I just don't see (even here in The People's Republic of California) vintage ICE being banned in my lifetime. So why worry? Say they make the last ICE in 2035 - if there's one thing I know is if there is a market, people will find a way.

    Restomod with electrical is all the rage today, if enough people want it in 20 years, it will be reversed, and with fuels already out that are carbon-neutral, even greenies can't get upset.
     
  28. paulchua

    paulchua Cat Herder
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    #25 paulchua, May 23, 2022
    Last edited: May 23, 2022
    Doug DeMuro made one of the most intelligent posts yesterday on this exact question:


    I have a digital server and a turntable.
    I have an apple watch and a mille
    I drink new world and old world wine (both corked and snap off)
    I read on kindle and have paper
    I own prints and originals
    I play esports and pitch a ball in real life
    I listen to live music and recordings
    I drink regular and diet coke
    I own a gated and paddle
    I like solar and grid
    I own leather and vinyl
    I watch movies and enjoy the theater
    I have Fabreeze and fresh flowers
    I have a massage chair and go to a masseuse
    I text and talk to people in real life
    I've smoked cigars and soaked paper (cigs)

    I OWN ICE AND ELECTRIC.

    Folks get trapped in this either/or nonsense.

    why? We all know, just reminding folks fandom can easily lose touch with the ground.
     
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