Thoughts on this 328 ??

Look at Hagerty's website valuation tool- shows last 5 years- and compares to S&P, Dow Jones and Gold, with Ferrari 328 GTS showing the best gains of all of them!

 

Car looks fairly priced for its condition. Very difficult to predict where a GTS 328 will be in the future. I think what makes this car special is its current low mileage and what appears to be good condition, perhaps even the color. I'd say #2 condition just looking at pics (interior in particular) though the pics can be deceiving. PPI for real knowledge. The GTB seems to reign king for value whether a 328 or a 308. If you are going to park a GTS and watch the market, I don't think its a wise investment. If you are buying it to drive it, the value will fade some, but you will have a heck of a lot of fun and not loose your shirt in the process. Might even break even when it comes time to sell.

 

This car is probably better suited for a collector or whoever wants to keep it for long without driving it extensively.

 

That looks like a very nice car. But age is age, and rubber parts and such degrade with time, more than usage. So these low milers are best for collectors. Of course, nothing wrong with starting with a great example, and then freshening up various things like hoses, greasing various parts and such, and having a fantastic driving car that can be viewed as rolling art. If you are buying for pleasure, then cost is not the driver, and it is no small task to find a great car to start with on the path of a rolling restoration.

As for investment, I think we are headed for stagflation. That means things go up in price, as most people slowly get poorer. Eventually, the wealth destruction hits real assets like collector cars, but it takes years. So I think a couple of years of enjoyment of this one is reasonably safe. 5 years out I would not be so sure. Long term it would make sense for the early fibreglass cars, perhaps the late euro qv's and the run out 1989 328 to be viewed as high points in the 308 story and attract the "cars as engineering art" collector interest.

 

This is for someone who has a "low mileage" fetish and more money than brains. You can buy a perfectly good 328 GTS with a fresh major, clean title, needing nothing for $70K all day long. That's why this car hasn't been sold (and I venture it hasn't attracted a single serious inquiry). Same deal with that 308GT4 that another dealer thinks is worth $125K.

Regarding the future trajectory of prices, we are going to see inflation one way or the other. In the case of cars, the import tariffs will lift the price of all cars, esp. cars not made in the USA. But in order to get rid of the debt monster, inflation is coming as sure as the sun will rise in the morning. And that's the best case. Worst case, the currency implodes along with most of the economy and Ferraris will be traded for cans of tuna.

I will, however, encourage you to get a black 328 ... or any 328 for that matter. Ageless styling, reliable mechanicals, enough power, great handling, and relatively easy to maintain.

 

I love tuna! Now, if I can find someone to throw in about four cases of Coca-Cola, I'm riding this ship to the bottom!

 

First, I agree with all the good advice you have been given above. Second, I may be able to quantify how much the 4,000 miles you propose to put on the car might decrease its value.

When I was in the market for an '86 to '88 GTS in 2015, I gathered all kinds of price and mileage data covering 278 cars. The data consisted of auction results, asking prices, and highest bid for uncompleted eBay auctions. Certainly not perfect data, but enough to build a scattergram. I then let the computer draw exponential and logarithmic curves thru the data to arrive at a best price for mileage ranging from 0 miles to 100,000 miles. I realize that prices were less 2 years ago, but would expect that if I conducted the exercise today, most of the data points would be shifted higher up across the mileage spectrum and also raise the corresponding curves higher. Thus, to avoid starting arguments about appropriate price today, I will cite the deltas between mileage points.

Going from 13,000 to 17,000 miles results in the following value loss-
Exponential Curve: $8,000 cost (or about $2.00 per mile added)
Logarithmic Curve: $5,000 cost (or about $1.25 per mile added)

Recognizing that the car in question is at a "steep" point on the cost curve, I will present for comparison more of a "driver" car at 30,000 miles going to 34,000 miles. Notice that the 2 cost curves have crossed each other at this point-
Exponential Curve: $2,000 cost (or about $0.50 per mile added)
Logarithmic Curve: $3,000 cost (or about $0.75 per mile added)

Thus, in the worst case, the car will need to appreciate $8,000 for you to break even to compensate for the extra miles added. As pointed out above, there is no guarantee that prices will rise this amount in the next 3 years. Also, there is considerably less risk with a "driver" car as it is on a flatter portion of the cost curve.

This is only for capital cost. Holding cost including insurance, storage, and maintenance will also need to be considered. Given all these factors, it is hard to justify a car as an "investment" unless prices soar in the future. Just consider any unrecovered costs as "economic rent" for having the car and having fun.

 

Just to offer a counter view, though these low mileage cars age just like anything else, the low mileage does count for something.

With a typical mileage use pattern these cars will never catch up to their counterparts with average miles. They don't have to live the rest of their life in a time capsule.

As with any of these cars there are two things to evaluate. 1) Is the car complete (tools, spare, roof with cover, manuals, etc.) and 2) what is the maintenance history?

With these low mileage cars, often the history is spotty, so watch out for that.

And what exactly was done at the most previous major? Belts and tensioners? Fluids? Spark plugs too? How are the shift shaft seals? Brake pads? Fuel lines? How old are the tires?

Those all need to answered before preceding further.

328 GTS's can be found for less. But if this car is just right for you (complete, good maintenance history, the right color combo), you shouldn't hesitate to spend a little more than market. 328's will continue to be loved.

-F