US GP in Austin Discussion and Speculation...

Easy solution:

Make sales zero. No seats to build, no transactions, no traffic.

Seems like a winning formula.

 

Indy let the US GP die over far less money than CotA has spent, that's for sure. They never paid F1 nearly what it would take to hold a race today, and they didn't purpose build a track for F1. They let F1 run their races there but really what else did they do? No one was willing to put the financial commitment down to keep the race.

So, I will stand by my statement. Even if CoTA never holds a race, they've sure put a lot of investment into bringing F1 back to the states and they should get respect for that. Failed attempt or not.

 

Only if you can get someone to buy a $300M PSL.

 

Huh?

Which part of purpose built F1 track did you miss?

For F1 they totally rebuilt the pits area and created the track on the infield. They only used one turn of the oval.

I don't have the numbers here but I'm pretty sure it was way more than what COTA came up so far. Maybe somebody can google it.

And while Indy did get a discount from Bernie the rumored number was about half of COTAs 25 million, but again that was 10 years ago before high paying countries like Bahrain, Abu Dhabi and some Asian places raised the fee.

 

Well, I did say a decade for a reason.. I don't know what Indy paid to upgrade everything for F1 in 2000. I'm sure it was a lot. Still not what I'd call an entire purpose built F1 track, but fine.

But even if we allow that Indy did more for F1 in the USA over their last few years... then is there any OTHER person or entity, in all of motorsport, that has done more in the past decade to bring F1 to the USA than CoTA? I just feel like they merit more credit than a lot of people want to give them.

 

There are a few folks in NY who have been doing quite some good for F1 in the US. While they might ultimately spend less $$$ than COTA their efforts might end up more successful.

Bigger isn't always better. Economically feasible is the magic word.

 

You are a serious bunch of very astute biznessmen but you dont know Awesome Texas {been here since 76}.Hookum does.. Last month we had 200,000+ music heads for SXSW,a pass for SXSW was $1300+...Its not unusual for thousands and thousands+of motorcycles to come to Awesome TO MAKE THE SCENE!!!!.The place will be packed,the city will be insane and being a race fan or F1 fan has nothing to do with making the scene.If nobody buys a ticket they will give them away,its done at concerts here all the time.What Im worried about is our Team isnt likely to win.......Im not buying a ticket but Im damn sure MAKING THE SCENE,,,in other words,go to watch the tourists,very entertaining activity on a regular basis here in AWESOME TEXAS!!!! HOOKUM HORNS!!! Vince will be here,heck,thousands of celebs will make the scene.

 

I just don't see how if they were unable to raise funding initially, how would it have been easier for them to do it after all of the bad publicity....

I'm curious as to who bought the debt though.

 

Really? I make it a point to avoid SXSW at all costs every year....

 

If you live DownTown how do you avoid SXSW?

 

I'm am to old for SXSW, call me and leave a message as I'm fly fishing the river!
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Who said was easier after the bad publicity?

They've scaled back the project - they had to do "something" (whether it be dig into their own pockets, do some creative financing, or something else) in order to pay Bernie, and they have done prospectus' for investment after they said they had all the $$ needed. I would say it's been anything but easy.

And like a slot machine, after you make the initial investment, you're loathed to walk away while there is still a potential payoff somewhere just over the horizon. I think that's where the $25MM came from for Bernie's fee.

 

November will be a really profitable month for the city. 2 home games for UT and an F1 race. And no the race does not fall on a game day weekend.

 

I recall reading some years ago that the dollar figure that the Hulman family invested out of their own pocket for the Grand Prix track mods., (etc.?) was approximately $75 mil.

 

The difference between F1 and the other events is like apple and oranges. SXSW and the ROT rally grew over a period of 20 years. They were small at first, and gained momentum over a time. SX didn't become really really huge until 6 or so years ago. The bikers have always been a part of Austin sub-culture so there is a big acceptance there.

There are car enthusiasts in Austin, true. A percentage of those actually watch racing. A smaller percentage actually go to races. An even smaller percentage watches F1 and follows the series. Now, who exactly are you expecting to "pack" the venue?

Traffic issues, liberal town, bad press, and Bernie Ecclestone. I think it will take some time to build an event up to 120,000.

Oh yeah, trivia question: Why will they not be able to fix Elroy Rd. before the first race?

 

...because the county commissioners are against it and don't want to pay for it LOL! http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/racing/entries/2012/04/17/travis_county_offiicials_to_he.html?cxntfid=blogs_formula_austin
You should be asking why they changed there minds...especially since the event is not taking place! Come on all the naysayers, spin that one!

 

Um...what race?




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It still remains to be seen what COTA will do for F1 in the USA. If I were COTA, I would rather sell 120, 000 tickets at an average of $300 each, than only sell possibly 10,000 tickets at $1500 each. I really doubt there are 20,000 people that will pay $1500+ for a seat, plus have to pay for a subscription.

 

That sounds about right. I remember the number of 45 million for just the pits area plus Pagoda. So 75 sounds about right for the whole enchalada.

You beat me to it.

I'm still stunned when folks post the race happening as an absolute certainty. I'm giving it about a 10% chance at best for this year and a 50% for next.

 

I say 65% chance in 2012, 35% chance in 2013, 10% chance in 2014

 

And I'm figuring a 100% chance that you're going to be proven wrong in november

From the friends of f1 austin FB page:

Seating:
-Grandstands will seat 9 to 10k
-Paddock will seat 5 to 6k
-4 additional temporary seating areas
-Tents for hospitality
-Portable suites
-Seating for 40 to 50k in temporary bleachers

 

Very interesting:

So you have changed your mind and think they have a more than 50/50 chance to make it this year?

Also deducing from your statement you think if they don't pull it off this year, it'll be even harder next year? I would have gone along with that until Bernie made some ugly comments about the NY GP. Sounds to me that he is playing these two events against each other, so I'm not sure that Austin has lost it all if they don't do it this year.

And last if they don't get it done this year and next, I'm giving 2013 zero chance and a carbon fibre covered toaster.

I'll gladly eat that crow if it means we'll have a US GP in Austin. Honestly.

Werewolf invited me to a BBQ and Austin is definitely easier to get to than a European GP.

 

I'd say 75% chance for 2012. I just see too much money put at risk not to do everything possible to make it happen. Still, something could go wrong, weather could intervene, lawsuit issues could escalate. But right now they are on track IMO to host the race, given a scaled back facility.

2013 I can't even guesstimate. I think they are totally gambling on the fact that they can get state money to kick in -- and that will require at least a somewhat successful event. They are hoping, as many say, that the money and attention lavished on Austin will be something no one here has ever seen or could have imagined. Then the government officials will be more likely to treat them like Apple, and give them what they want.

Otherwise, I just don't see how the business plan works beyond 2013. The track can make money on other events, but who knows how much. Making money on Formula 1 with the escalating sanctioning fees and no government support... very, very difficult I think. Renegotiating with Bernie for a lower fee or revenue share, not likely at all.

 

Well, I think they are genuinely trying... I don't think the construction is all a farce or anything. But I think they have very real time and money constraints and I don't think it's a sure thing by any means that they will make it. I believe that, barring any further bombshells, they will have an unfinished but usable facility, and I think it would take a genuinely dangerous track (like no runoff areas) for Bernie to actually call off a race.

If they don't pull it off this year, I doubt it will ever happen. I bet there would be lawsuits flying, any funding gap (which would have led to not finishing construction) would just get bigger, and if they were in breach, Bernie would probably just axe the race and not even consider going there again unless they gave him the world (fully completed facility, full term of contract guaranteed through a LOC, etc).

On the other hand, if they make it, I think there will be a lot of problems. Traffic, hotels, attendance, ticket prices. I think there will be quite a lot of PO'ed attendees. Also, first year is always highest attendance because of the novelty factor. I think the track will lose a lot of money that first year. Then, for the second year, attendance will be way down, lots of first-year attendees won't be back, and COTA will be shouting from the highest rooftops "we fixed all the problems, come back!", but they will never match first year numbers. Year two they'll lose a ton of $$ and by that time, NYC is online, carving out a huge chunk of Austin sales. The only thing I am not sure about is whether the investors will wait out a 2nd year after they see the numbers from the first. That's why I give it a 35% chance (or, say, one in three).

It would be nice to have a USGP, but I really feel they are fleeing the F1 fans with the ticket policy, so in a way I hope it comes back to bite them in the ass. If I was choosing, NY is the place to be for F1 in the USA.

 

It's a rare occasion I get to do this, but I am in complete agreement with tifosi12 on this one. Only question is what are the hotels going to tell those who have already booked $500+/night hotel rooms already. Credit for next year? Cross fingers? I think hydrogen power going mainstream has a better chance than this F1 circuit for this year.