What Ferrari would you buy when the next crash comes.

I would be a bit worried about the life expectancy of air bags around the 20-year mark and the potential to activate on their own and cause interior damage. Parts damaged by air bags might be difficult and expensive to obtain at that point. Perhaps it would be permissible to disconnect air bags when the vehicle is regarded as an antique.

 

Just wait...

 

Maybe, but current laws don't allow that. As I understand it, shops can get into trouble for doing it.

 

That does not really worry me. It is very unlikely that an airbag activates on its own. Rather that it will not inflate in case of an accident. So, just as "unsecure" as any classics of higher age.

 

Something worth noting:

While lots of people were complaining about the bubble and wringing their hands about the rising price of F cars and a coming crash, some of us were buying cars. I bought the cars I wanted, not the "it" cars of the moment or cars regarded as "the next big thing" at the time. I heard lots of people tell me that I was buying the wrong cars from an appreciation stand point. I didn't care as I was buying cars I love and appreciate. Later on, the prices on my cars went up dramatically and everyone commented on what spectacular cars they were. Like they weren't spectacular when the prices were lower? Anyways, I would bet that when the market does correct, none of the cars I own will be worth less that what I paid for them (not that I would care if they were). There have been very good buys in the last 3 years for those that took the time to look for it and didn't look at cars from an appreciation standpoint.

I would also bet that many of the people (not all, though) who say that they would buy cars "when the crash comes" will do no such thing, just like they didn't buy in the past when prices were lower. When there is a correction, and I highly doubt that it's going to be "50%" across the board like others say, the same people will stay on the sidelines saying that the cars are still overpriced, will be going even lower, are a bad "investment," and/or a multitude of other excuses that they will say to themselves to justify their position of not buying.

Let's get real here: to buy something in a down market takes a different mentality than the herd. If everyone was buying, then it wouldn't be a down market in the first place. It takes a different kind of courage and conviction to buy something when everyone else says it sucks.

 

Happy with what I've got. Also, need to get the wife a new car before any additional "toys" for myself.

 

PF Coupe.

And, depending on how far down?

Lusso. Series II PF cab.

I like this game!

 

Great post Sherpa,

I've often wondered the reasoning on the plethora of 'bubble threads' permeating the boards at the moment. Are these ghost images from our collective hangover of the 09' pop? Some desire to ease the inherent irrationality of a market by being able to prognosticate the next Tulip implosion?

No doubt riches are to be had (see "Big Short") with well-placed positions in the next downturn. But with no practical or efficient way to 'short' the classic car market - financial gain itself seems far from the primary motive.

Are these posts being made by self-flagellating collectors guilty about spectacular gains recently? I think Pope Francis has had an effect on the flock, but not *that* much.

That leaves us with a person like me, an enthusiast of modest means that shares the same passion with these collectors I am blessed to call friends. I am too ignorant of the high-end collectible market to call a bubble, but hypothetically speaking, say I wasn't and felt a bubble was impending...

Am I in a position where I am ready to snap up these 'overvalued' works of art when the bubble pops? No, - if I were - the wise action would be to accumulate capital and wait - broadcasting caution and prudence would hurt my cause - the higher the price disparity - the larger the fall, it would profit me to be silent.

So that leaves the armchair commentator with no intention of action whatever the direction the market goes. FerrariChat is public forum board and opinions, and thoughts, of course, are the very lifeblood. I have seen however that negative commentary has overwhelmingly coming from this contingent of folks with "no skin in the game" so to speak.

I can see how that angle can only serve to aggravate and poke collectors in the eye. Similar if I were to go to a Picasso collector board and create a bunch of Picasso is over-priced threads...

 

Paul, I do want to be clear that my comments are not directed at everyone as I know that there are commenters in these threads who have the means and intentions of buying cars the want at a price that they deem correct. My point is that there is an extraordinary amount of attention paid to the "what ifs" and "if onlys" while if people put that same attention to looking at what's available now that they love that's a solid value, they would be much better served in a much more constructive way. But it is always easier to sit on the sidelines and list the excuses why to not act than to have the courage to act decisively and swiftly and from the heart.

But that brings us to your final observation where there have been an influx of posts by a few users who have no intention of buying Ferraris who only post to put down those who have, and they do so in the most flagrant of manners. That's not necessarily the case here but it has become part of Fchat in the last year. They keep talking about how Ferrari owners are fools and morons and anyone buying now is purely a speculator with ill intentions and that a huge crash is coming.

 

Very good points Sherpa and good of you to call out. My post is in the same spirit as well...there are tons of folks waiting for a individual price point for entry. My post, like yours definitely is not targeted at that cohort. My commentary is especially reserved for folks that deliver inaction whatever direction the market goes (outside posting "I told you so" on fhcat perhaps)



Be well

 

I completely understood the spirit of your post.

The thing is that if someone posts for 3 years that this is a bubble and it's going to burst any day, when the prices drop, even if it's not below the price levels of when they first started calling the bubble , you know that there will no shortage of "I told you so" posts. Can't wait.

 

ANything with a v12

 

Anything I can get my hands on at the moment
I always lose money on cars, my MO sucks.
Buy a Jag or MB for $10 K, put $5 K into it and a year later sell it for $5 K or less.
Truth is when the bug/urge hits the only thing my brain is saying is "must have this car now" so I quit buying Jags and MBs
I drive my F car, I will never break even ..... by the time the bubble arrives for my 355 the miles I put on it will lower the price.
I have always wanted to buy/sell cars but my emotions get in the way.

 

Well said. Not only does it take a different mentality but also liquidity. In a down market, most people suddenly find they have zero liquidity to capitalize on killer deals and nobody ready to lend to them.

I bought my 1st Ferrari in 2009 and my 2nd one in 2010. Those were very dark days in the US economy but I had positioned myself (half luck, half foresight) to be liquid at the time so I pounced.

The ones who will be on the sidelines (and complain the prices are still high) are the ones who never get themselves into a solid enough cash position to do anything other than grouse about it.

 

F40

 

If it was such a bubble, nobody would be saying "it's a bubble".

Bubbles are usually only seen in Hindsight. The mear fact that so many people are saying its a bubble, means it's probably not going to pop. In the next recession, prices will temporarily go down, just like stock and real estate..

It's really pretty simple. The world has realized that cars from this point forward are going to be computerized appliances that lack soul. That simply makes the more analog cars from classic sports car companies desirable to own for pleasure. There are speculators, but most of the owners of these cars are enthusiasts. The newer stuff that isn't that rare may be a different story.