What is the mileage hit expected on an F12? | FerrariChat

What is the mileage hit expected on an F12?

Discussion in 'F12/812' started by KY _Soldier, Sep 9, 2020.

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  1. KY _Soldier

    KY _Soldier Formula Junior

    Oct 13, 2008
    564
    Louisville KY
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    Eric Rahman
    I am considering several F12s at present. The majority are roughly 2014-2016 with under 10k miles. From talking to other Fchat members, they have purchased vehicles from Ferrari dealers and PP for under 200k for a 2014 with well under 10k miles. In addition, Ferrari is running a promo right now giving 2 years of extended warranty for the price of one (add approx $5k) which does have some value to me personally. I have seen the gamut from lightly optioned 3k mile later model years to heavily optioned earlier model year vehicles with up to 30k miles. How much of a hit do you think a 30k mile vehicle takes vs an 8k mile vehicle? I plan on driving it, maybe 5k miles a year for a few years before I look for something else. Most dealers won't touch a 30k mile vehicle but clearly there is a market for those vehicles, albeit a much smaller one. Trying to decide which direction to go in. Any and all data is helpful. Thanks in advance!
     
  2. Solid State

    Solid State F1 Veteran
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    I would stay away from 30k mile exotics. If you want the 2 year warranty and then want to sell it makes sense you want to sell with the warranty still active. So you want a 30k car and put another 10k on it and sell in under 2 years. Too small a market to try to sell a 40k car in that time frame without a fire sale. Cheap Ferraris aren't cheap.
     
  3. KY _Soldier

    KY _Soldier Formula Junior

    Oct 13, 2008
    564
    Louisville KY
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    Eric Rahman
    I absolutely worry about that. It's really a math problem + risk factor (how hard to sell). Buy 30k mile car for 170k and maybe sell for 130k in 2 years or buy 200k car and easily sell for 170k in 2 years. Just don't know what those numbers might be. Wondering what that huge mileage hit is present day?
     
  4. Rabies

    Rabies Karting

    Apr 4, 2020
    151
    UK
    I've just done this the other way round. I intend to do about 8K miles per annum in my F12 and so have gone with a highly optioned 2014 car with about 17K miles that still has its extended warranty in place. I intend to keep for a long time. I think there are quite a few F12s in Europe with over 60K miles and no maintenance problems - I've even heard there's one in Germany (I think) with over 100K miles and no issues. Long term, I don't think I'll loose in overall depreciation vs a low mileage newer car if I have/want to sell it in say 5+ years time. Plus I get the added benefit of not really caring how much I use it rather than staring at it sat in the garage worrying about the miles I put on it. At the end of the day, I think these things should/need to be driven.
     
  5. BusterX

    BusterX Karting

    Aug 24, 2016
    56
    If you drive a lot, your depreciation is higher, but your $/mile is lower.
     
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  6. Caeruleus11

    Caeruleus11 F1 World Champ
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    Jun 11, 2013
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    Lets play it out: You plan to drive 5k miles a year for a few years. If that is 3 years thats 15k.

    8+15=23k

    30+15=45k

    I think either way the ending miles will make your car not as marketable to a main line dealer. Still a 23k car will be more valuable than a 45k mile vehicle. I think these cars are built well. So the question then becomes the delta between the 30k and 8k car. I suspect its wildly in favor of the 30k.

    Now, if your driving works out more like 800 miles a year- then after 3 years your 8k car is 10.4k miles vs 32.4k... the ~11k mile car is way more sellable.

    So the answer is how much driving will you really be doing. PS F12 is a wonderful car, great choice! Suggest new tires and alignment.
     
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  7. ScottS

    ScottS F1 Rookie
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  8. ScottS

    ScottS F1 Rookie
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    If you watch the full video you will see that by crunching the numbers mileage is the most important impact on price. He goes over this in quite detail. There’s a premium for the 2017 model and spec is not fully analyzed because of the lack of data but we know that high spec cars will carry a premium as well. This video is an interesting series of videos by this economist.

    The other important take away is that beyond let’s say 25 to 30,000 miles, the uncertainty on the extrapolation goes up dramatically. In other words there’s so few cars at 45,000 miles that no one really knows how to price them. Although there was a 20,000 mile car hi spec at my dealer that site and the price went down and down and down. Personally I would not buy that car simply because of the difficulty in selling it later with real miles. For the range below 15,000 miles say the hit is approximately 2300 per 1000 miles.

    Take a look it is worth your time KY soldier.




    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
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  9. Solid State

    Solid State F1 Veteran
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    My goodness. Put me to sleep! He did not mention condition which is extremely important to buyers. And of course model year means almost nothing compared to spec and miles. Also no mention of extended warranty or service history and documentation. Its just not that hard. If you are worried about depreciation then you won't drive it and you should not buy a Ferrari. Mileage kills resale. An exotic is a total luxury item. Its for enjoyment only.
     
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  10. colonels

    colonels Formula Junior

    Aug 5, 2011
    835
    great insight and a must watch for any potential buyers
    i would also add that he's using ASKING PRICES for his model. those prices have a 15-20% profit margin built in that's your negotiation zone. good luck!
     
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  11. ScottS

    ScottS F1 Rookie
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    Absolutely. It’s the drunkards dilemma but it’s the best data we have. And surrogate data in lieu of other variables such as spec mode year etc in a big enough dataset work fine. BUT. Spec is
    Important

    It’s not perfect but it’s interesting. Also can be used to guide pricing for sale and purchase.

    So the average year and mileage price is a line - high MsRP above and low MSRP below. Same with warranty as well. He did mention the 20k premium for Ferrari dealers which is partly for the actual warranty perhaps.




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  12. BusterX

    BusterX Karting

    Aug 24, 2016
    56
    I realize Ferrari is unique in most things. However, the general rule on car options is that they are much less valuable in the secondary market. I'm not sure how much F12s follow this rule or not.

    It is interesting that most of the options are stylistic and/or aesthetic rather than fundamentally mechanical. Other than lighter wheels and things like seats and carbon steering wheel, most of the options are (dare I say it) superfluous. The question is: do dealers themselves pay less on trade or wholesale for cars that are lower specced?
     
  13. rossodino

    rossodino Formula Junior

    Dec 16, 2007
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    corona del mar, ca.
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    bruce sansone
    Personally I do no think a dealer pays up for higher optioned cars, they try to make you think that, and try to make you pay up for it . The vast majority of these high priced options go poof in the secondary market. Again the dealer might try and say lower spec cannot pay you as much , but again a tactic. It really comes down to condition ,mileage and the year of the vehicle.
     
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  14. ScottS

    ScottS F1 Rookie
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    Ask some of the owners here who traded in. There’s actually a spreadsheet that some dealers will share with you. This shows MSRP certain options colors etc. there are variables for all of this.

    I’m not suggesting that dealers pay a lot for the various options but highly options cars clearly get more money and this is true in both the private and the dealer market.
     
  15. rossodino

    rossodino Formula Junior

    Dec 16, 2007
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    Well I this is interesting, I guess you could see depending on the color and some options that it could being more money, but I would be surprised if it amounts to a huge difference, but I could be wrong.
     
  16. BusterX

    BusterX Karting

    Aug 24, 2016
    56
    My guess is that the order is something like:

    1a. Year
    1b. Mileage
    2. Spec
    3. Condition

    Maybe I'm wrong, I'm new to the unique properties of Ferrari secondary market.
     
  17. KY _Soldier

    KY _Soldier Formula Junior

    Oct 13, 2008
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    Louisville KY
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    Eric Rahman
    I would swap mileage and year, and expand year to include warranty/maint left which may include buying from a dealer. Year is only as important as it can be warrantied or any production issues with a given year. At some point in the future is less less important, for example once it is past the 7 year maint mark.
     
  18. BusterX

    BusterX Karting

    Aug 24, 2016
    56
    You're probably right.

    I suppose if you want to minimize depreciation and drive your car, it's best to find a good condition, high mileage car and negotiate aggressively on the price.
     
  19. Solid State

    Solid State F1 Veteran
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    For production cars swap 2 and 3 and then flip the whole list. Spec first (buying an exotic in colors or finishes you dislike?), then condition (great spec but beat to hell?), then mileage (all things even lower is much more desirable), then warranty and documentation (peace of mind and well cared for). Year is irrelevant to me as they are short term produced and Ferrari does not upgrade of any importance during production.
     
  20. BusterX

    BusterX Karting

    Aug 24, 2016
    56
    I put spec a bit lower because with the exception of outlandish color combinations, which are quite rare, I think they all look nice.
     
  21. colonels

    colonels Formula Junior

    Aug 5, 2011
    835
    at 30k miles ferrari do engine compression tests to certify for further extended warranty. that gives you an idea of where they expect problems to start occurring.
     
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  22. Chadly

    Chadly Formula Junior

    Mar 21, 2010
    294
    Bothell, WA
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    Chad
    Hate to sound like an ****** but I actually am one in real life. People who care this much about this stuff most likely cannot afford a Ferrari. I would find something more in your income bracket. Because I would never put a price on having one of these beautiful cars to drive at your disposal.
     
  23. KY _Soldier

    KY _Soldier Formula Junior

    Oct 13, 2008
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    Eric Rahman
    You're right. Not sure why I even consider anything and don't just flush my money down the toilet. For some people here, money isn't an object. For some, they want to take their time and get what makes sense for their situation. Not knowing someone and saying things like "more in your income bracket" does reinforce that you may be a ***** online and in real life. Funny thing is that money alone doesn't make one an *****. That, my friend, is a choice, plain and simple.
     
  24. Chadly

    Chadly Formula Junior

    Mar 21, 2010
    294
    Bothell, WA
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    Chad
    I respect that but I can tell you buying a Ferrari is flushing your money down the toilet. Anyone that tells you otherwise is lying to you. You're not going to find many cars that have a higher cost of ownership. Money is always an object no matter how much you have. But someone strapping themself to buy one of these cars is about the dumbest thing one could do.
     
  25. KY _Soldier

    KY _Soldier Formula Junior

    Oct 13, 2008
    564
    Louisville KY
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    Eric Rahman
    I go in knowing it’s going to take a hit but just like most car purchases some prefer new and some prefer just past new so that the first person takes the big hit and it’s milder after that. In my case it’s not just about value but how easy it would be to resell since I typically don’t hold mine more than a few years. My 612 I kept for almost six years because it was very special but normally I’d do about 2-3 years tops on one. FWIW I made $20k on the 612 but that’s because I was patient and bought it right. If I hadn’t done an OTO I probably stood to lose about 30-40k over the same horizon. I think 458s, 430s and a few others have maxed out depreciation and will likely slowly appreciate from here on out. In those cases you can buy one, drive it on occasion and probably get back what you put in over a couple years. I do agree though that these are total first world problems.
     

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