What Is The Predictions For Drive Off and Used Depreciation Numbers ?

They will sell a whole lot less or drop the price substantially.

 

It will make the decline of the DJIA seem like nursery school......

 

I think they'll do ok for several years. Latest hotness and all. 4-5 years out and they'll be dropping like anvils, especially with the 430 replacement on the way. They're Mondials, really, with all that implies with resale.

That's good for us bottomfeeders

 

I just love your flair for understatement.

 

Hahahaha, seriously this car is THAT bad? Even the resale horrors M Marques (Mazda, Mercedes, Maserati) can hold value better that than.

 

It will tank. No question. I expect depreciation profile to be similar to 612. By all means buy one to enjoy, but don't expect this to be an investment grade car.

 

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I agree with MalibuGuy. There are going to be very few cars in the US this year and they are sold to the best customers who are going to buy them no matter what the stock market is doing. The 430 model is winding down; no more built after this fall and the replacement isn't going to be delivered to the US anytime soon and the spider version is a couple of years away. My dealer in California has pruned his "list" and he has way more customers still in line than he has allocations for 2009,2010+. My conclusion: these cars for the next couple of years are going to sell without discount and hold their values. Premiums will be small. After that, who knows but if you are looking to pick one up on the cheap it isn't going to happen any time soon. Now if you want a used 360 or 430, that is an entirely different matter.

 

With all the brillant minds predicting the California resale will tank in the first year, I'm sure you all were able to use your crystal balls to take all your money out of real estate 2 years ago and the stock market 4 months ago... right?

What's that I hear??? Hmmm. The sounds of silence.

 

This is a no brainer because most think the car is ugly, not well maybe its okay and it will grow on them . Ugly Ferraris always have poor resale. Especially 2 plus 2s look at the 612 which looks far better and has a proper 12

 

Actually- I predicted the real estate market was too high so I didn't buy since 2001.

And I sold all my stock and bought tax free floating bonds that were liquid and had a fixed par at 100 in 2004.

Everyone told me I was too conservative for my age. My private bank guys though I was the dumbest guy around.

But predicting a new convertible Ferrari will sell seems a lot easier.[/QUOTE]

 

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the cali will sell just fine....Ferrari has already anounced the first two years production is sold out....they are very good at inventory control...production has been cut...as for real estate, some markets more than doubled since 2001, so a 20-30% decline means you are still ahead...in fact, some partners and I just made a 120% profit in some colorado real estate over a one year period, and this during the worse housing and general recession perhaps ever...there is still money to made in several markets for those who are not paralyzed by fear...there is nothing to fear but fear itself..........

 

The first part of the Cali equation is the number of vehicles that will be produced and who (what countries) will get them. If 4,000 units will hit the US (won't happen), then the car will be sold at or potentially below MSRP. If the now projected 400-600 cars, then there will be that many buyers and demand will drive the over MSRP equation.

There will be 400-600 buyers who will pay over MSRP and will not even consider a 360 or 430 or any other alternative, they will want a Cali. It's the nazz, it's new, power top, wtfever, they will want a Cali. 600 buyers is a drop in a very large bucket of potential buyers especially since the Cali will have appeal to the women which markedly increases the potential demand.

As the 612 does not influence the 599 which does not influence the Cali, the market will be determined by Ferrari's output primarily and not by people who are subject to comparison F car shopping. I repeat, they want a Cali. Again, this is at low volumes of production.

The most interesting part of all of this is does Ferrari actually know what they want to do? 4,000 units now 400 units? F Dealers used inventories losing zillions of dollars. Do they try to make up lost profits by making just the right number of Calis which can be sold at premiums?

Time will tell but my bet, as is the OP, that the Cali market will get to 4000+ units, Ferrari has built their recent financial and business model around that number and as it approaches higher volumes, the Cali will drop dramatically in resale value. The F dealers will have to take it on the chin ultimately.

 

How the car does in the used market is very much a function of what it costs new and we still don't know that. There is a possibility that it could be real competition for the Bentley Continental GTC and cheaper than the Bentley. Check used Bentley prices, they are very, very good. This car is not targeted to traditional Ferrari buyers that think their next Ferrari will be a GTO in the used market. It is for SL buyers and it will do much better than an SL.

 

In the supply-pricing curve, there is a point where used pricing begins to decline and that point is defined as number of units available. It is independent of MSRP or over MSRP as to where pricing falls. E.g. 360/430s

This is the saturation point and as additional units (unsold?) are added, pricing continues to fall.

To where? <shrugs> Typically to the point where you can part out the car and make approximately 25% more than selling outright. Ferrari owners are not parters, they will take the hit so this may not be part of the used pricing equation. Given that many F 360/430/Cali owners have room to store their F-Car, at some point many will say "Nope, I'll keep it before I sell it for $25K"

 

Forget what Ferrari wants to do - fully bugger 60years of legend from the looks of it - what does Ferrari have to do?

They've created capacity for 4,000 annual units of this fecal specimen, at an obvious 100% markup, for how long can they operate that line at even 50%, much less an optimistic 20%, capacity? What of the main line, all but stifled by $225k low mile 599s and $140k 430s?

...The poseurs of 2017 will be swanning about Mumbai and Shenzhen in "the Ferrari Nano II, by Tata", and you can thank Three-Card-Montezemolo for it.

 

Don't like the Cali?

Ferrari's choices are the same as any manufacturing corporation, they will fire and lay off and cut production as the only means of staying afloat. They are locked in on paying loans, equipment costs, and other non variable expenses...these they can't make go away like people.

The dealers be damned. If a dealer fails, there will be another to take the place. The Cali is an important revenue piece for 2009/10 and with dealers used inventories depreciating at ghastly rates, dealerships are upside down these days in most every financial sense. No rivers crying here, they made bucketloads from over MSRP deals and if they fail, they fail for only one reason. They didn't retain enough earnings to stay solvent when the inevitable times of today came to roost.

 

I don't like Three-card-Monte's "Ferrari", and the FIAT Cali is more than half the reason.

Exactly.

They've dug themselves into a very, very deep hole, and the Cali is a particularly insubstantial fretwork to climb up on.