What you need to do to get an AP, Patek, or Rolex at retail.

I’m not sure what Deleted means. Sounds like a good idea to me.


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I was thinking out loud.
I am "aged" now which I am truly enjoying, but if I were a young whippersnapper, maybe something to consider. I just like to sit back and ponder these days. I struggle with trivial things like choosing the color of my new Bentley build. The dealer will not be happy to get another call from me later this morning with a new build code. You would think having more options makes it better, but no.
Maybe a good discussion topic would be as to what issues your local AD's and Rolex / Patek have? Patek maybe, as I hear they like to know who is getting their watches new from AD's. I could be wrong.
The way I see it, these watches would not be going to the grey market. They would be going to actual buyers who, if offered by their local AD's would snatch them up in a heartbeat.
The AD's get to keep good clients. And Rolex and Patek get to keep their watches off the grey market. New buyers at AD's. Rolex and Patek do not see the over retail money anyway. I am certain some AD's do sell new watches to family members so they can resell them in the grey market. Or SA's are doing it without their manager knowing. Naive if you think otherwise.
I guess the only thing the AD's would loose out on would be the clients who believe they have to buy the non-sport watches to move up the "chain".
Personally I think Rolex should just stop making the small case models and focus on 36mm and up. And make the smaller watches in small quantities as boutique editions thus making them more collectible (Your welcome Rolex). I am sure the AD's would love that so they do not sit on 31mm datejust for years.

Fun topic anyway...

 

Market is crashing, you might see many coming out for sale in secondary market soon


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Just got offered this over the weekend. Still not what I wanted so turned it down. Hopefully what I'm looking for will eventually show up. Image Unavailable, Please Login

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I got lucky this Saturday. Walked into Bachendorf's Clear Fork ( Fort Worth) looking for a wedding present. On the way out, I asked the salesman when he thought they would get any Rolexes in stock. He said they just got two- one was a two tone Black Faced Sky Dweller. He said "corporate had said no more calling customers- let them sell from the showcase when a customer walks in. BRILLIANT!!!Increase traffic through the store, novel idea! Needless to say, I have a new Sky Dweller.

 

Patience finally paid off - got the call, or text rather for this. Picking it up on Monday. One down, two to go! For those that are interested, I put the request in about nine months ago.

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Bought a new SS Submariner/Date today at normal price from the AD in Palm Desert. They received two today.

This after passing on the same at a local jewelry dealer asking $22K (!)

Maybe sanity is returning…


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I have some thoughts on this. Please indulge me and allow me to make some posts that may be able to shed some light on the current watch situation. Between my wife and I, we own mostly Patek (13 of them) every single one purchased at msrp. I’ve had a long standing relationship with my AD who is also a Rolex dealer. We both also own several Rolex’s although for me all my future purchases will be Patek only. Just like them better though I have no intention to sell the half a dozen Rolexes we own either.

This first post is a summary that I posted on another forum regarding my hosted trip to Patek a month or so ag. Patek is going to be difficult to start a relationship but please read my summary and in the next post I’ll address what I believe to be the formula for getting a Patek. My entire trip (airfare, hotel, meals) was complimentary


I’m on the way back from a hosted trip to Geneva with a group of great guys by my AD. We were the first group to go from The US to Geneva since the new PP6 building opened and the Covid restrictions were lifted.
This was the most epic trip I’ve ever been on in my life as a watch enthusiast as we spent the last 3 days with a small group of Patek fans seeing the entire process of making a watch from start to finish, from design to final QC.


We toured the factory (both the PP0 and the PP6 buildings). We spent time with the design team, had a chance to sit at the bench and work on some components. We visited the dial factory where every dial was made for each of the 65,000 or so Pateks produced each year.

On our trip was also members of the US sales/management team. Spent a ton of time with them and really got an appreciation for how difficult it is to allocate 65,000 watches to 1 million plus customers. If not more. No matter what they do, someone is going to be disappointed.

After realizing the difficulties, I told my AD that I wanted to-apologize for continuing to ask when my next watch is coming. Each AD has so many heavy hitters that they have to try to please, I felt bad for the times I felt entitled to get a piece. I remember how upset I felt when he didn’t give me a green dial 5711 but then realized the person sitting next to me with over 50 Pateks also didn’t get a green dial. The perspective was eye opening for me. Made me realize to just have your wish list and be patient and the pieces you want will come in good time.

I also apologized for asking him to try to get my friends an allocation. I realized they just don’t have the pieces to give out. If your AD gets a 100 watches for example and they already have 300 regular customers- what are they supposed to do with the new ones. In an ideal world you want to try to please everyone but the reality is there just aren’t enough Pateks to go around. Especially when everyone only wants a nautilus or an aquanaut to be trendy but not a calatrava because it doesn’t look as good on Instagram.

We also spent a ton of time taking about the gray market. The goal of Patek is to minimize the effects of the gray market and only have their ADs sell to legit customers as much as is in their power. They want their clients to have a great relationship with their AD and in turn Patek so the ADs that still exist they are going to go deeper with them. While impossible to shut down, Patek will buy suspicious pieces that appear on the gray market to see the serial number and if it’s found that that watch was given to a dealer and the dealer knowingly sold it to someone who they knew was going to flip the watch/ the dealer has a big problem. An example of this would be a green dial 5711 that shows up for sale soon after release. Why did that happen? Did the dealer sell it to a long time customer or did he sell it to someone new who they didn’t know their intentions? Those dealers who don’t know where their watches are going- well, maybe they aren’t going to be dealers too much longer.

Patek would like to have their clients be in it for the long haul and not a quick wham bam thank you ma’am. So for example- which is a better customer for Patek- someone who sold their bitcoin and wants to buy 6 pieces in a year and disappear only to be seen on Instagram?Or someone that adds to their collection and builds it over time, the next 30 years? I think you can figure that out.
Here are a few more random thoughts from the event in no particular order:

• They have gone from 150 us ADs to 60 in the last few years. More closings coming. See note above why.
• It’s going to become more difficult, Not easier to get a Patek.
• Every Patek is finished by hand. They could literally just crank up the cnc machines and do everything by machine but the reason it takes so long and production is so slow is that while lots of machinery is used, each piece is finished by hand. Each component is polished by hand. Each dial is fabricated by hand. This to me was the most impressive part. It really made me admire my current collection so much more.
• It takes 4-6 months to make each dial. That’s not design, that’s production of every single dial-4-6 months per dial.
• The new PP6 building is insane
• The dials are made in a separate factory away from their Geneva headquarters. Most of the dial makers do not get to see the final piece. We met a couple of the enamel dial makers and one person in my group was wearing a 5370. The dial makers just went bananas when they saw the reference in person. They had never seen the finished reference in the wild before.
• They (PAtek) don’t consider the Nautilus anything special. Infact they are just sick of the hype of the nautilus. A replacement 5711 is coming (more on that later) but they don’t want to be a one trick pony. I don’t think that is news here.
• From reading the tea leaves and not because of anything anyone said- I don’t think you are going to see what happened with the 5711 ever again. Meaning reference is gone but then a limited green dial and then an even more limited Tiffany dial. While they aren’t complaining about the hype and publicity, I don’t think the end result of pissing off a bunch of loyal clients was something they want to do again. They would rather have enthusiasts wear their watches and not necessarily rappers. My view only.
• The movement is always designed first and then the watch is designed around the that. Simple reason is a new movement is a 10 year project so you have to use what is already available.
• It took 7 years to design the 175 anniversary piece.
• They are currently working on the release of watches for a few years out. Next couple of years models are already done and ready to go.
• Expect some really interesting stuff with a couple of references this year. Maybe expect a couple brand new models? Can’t/won’t say more.
• They have the ability to repair every single watch made in the history of Patek. There is a team that will recreate and build from scratch any damaged cars r missing pieces. It fascinating to see repair work being done on an 80 year old watch. Might take a couple of years and cost thousands but they can do it.
• The Patek team (US but assuming the rest of the world as well) monitors websites like chrono 24 and others (maybe here) as they like to stay abreast of the conversation around their brand but more importantly to see any strange grey market pieces. I would not be surprised to know that they are a buyer of pieces sold on the secondary market to see where that sought after reference that everyone wants but can’t get- why is it for sale so quickly? Do not be surprised if many of the secondary pieces are not legit- meaning maybe fake, maybe an older model with a fake certificate. This really solidified my decision to only buy new and only from my AD.

The trip culminated with all of us in a confernce room where they opened the safe and literally we got to try on every single piece in the collection. Not just a couple of calatravas or aquanauts- I mean every single piece! Got lots of pics but was asked not to post. I am only posting my personal 5270 and the 5370 of one of the other visitors. But trust me- this was beyond epic.

And ofcourse the cherry on top was the final dinner. Mr. Thierry Stern joined us and we had a blast talking to him. He had just arrived from Singapore and to take time out and spend with the group was very gracious of him.
Couple of points to mention about the conversation:

He wears a 5164 when he travels. He had just gotten back from Singapore so this was still on his wrist.
His favorite watch of all time is 5970.
He (not his father) owns the museum, his father curates it.
He wants to try new things and not be boring. Look for some interesting new releases. Can’t comment more.
He is happy Nautilus is gone but replacement coming. I think this is fairly common knowledge. Lots of rumors have been floating around on this.
The new building PP6 took 6 years to design and implement.
Each minute repeater is checked by him personally before leaving for sale.
Production is not going to increase in a meaningful way. If they just machined every part, then cranking out more watches would be easy. But since there is so much hand finishing, we will be at 65,000 or so pieces for the foreseeable future.

 

Ok so we know there are only 60 or so authorized Patek dealer in the US- 400 or so in the world. Divide roughly 65,000 watches a year by 400, you get 165 or so watches per AD give or take. So if you want a Patek and ofcourse you want a brand new nautilus or aquanaut- you really have zero chance. The line of existing customers at a PAtek dealer is probably 50 deep who want the same watch and likely the dealer will get one, maybe two a year. Since Patek is cracking down on gray market- any remaining Patek dealer will not risk selling a hot watch to an unknown lest that watch shows up on the gray market and Patek finds out, that dealer is done. Do the math on 165 watch’s and let’s say 35% margin for the dealer- it’s an annuity they have of several million bucks. They aren’t going to risk it.

You want a Nautilus, contact Eddie and pay market price. I will tell you the folks at Patek are sick of the Nautilus hype. They want their customers to buy their other models cause that shows you aren’t an Instagram whore wanting to show off your new watch, it just means you are a true watch aficionado.

So what’s the secret sauce to getting a Patek relationship. Buy whatever the dealer has in stock. This is going to sound crazy and almost like blackmail but bear with me for a second.

let’s say the dealer has a 5524 (Pilots watch) in stock. These for some reason aren’t as popular and can often be found at dealers. Or let’s say they have a calatrava. Or more likely let’s say they have a ladies watch. I know you want a nautilus but buy something that is in stock (assuming you like it ofcourse). That shows the dealer you are a serious buy and more importantly that gets you on the Patek radar as a customer . Maybe your wife needs a new ring or some jewelry- instead of shopping around- give your AD the business. All they want to know is if this guy gonna flip my watch for a profit or are they truly a watch fan. The more you buy the more things become available.

you may not get your desired watch today or tomorow but do you want short term gratification or do you want to build a proper collection of the finest time pieces made?

Summary with Patek- patience and persistence and obviously a deep pocket is key. Don’t ask for a nautilus or an aquanaut right off the bat. Even if your dealer wanted to sell it to you, they don’t have it. Literally.

Ill do Rolex next.

 

My AD is also a Rolex dealer. And if you go to their store, just like every other Rolex dealer, there is nothing in the display cases. And yet they sell roughly (in this market) 1300 or so Rolexes a year.

for whatever reason the Rolex market skyrocketed, as is already evidenced on this thread- the market is coming back to normal. There are more and more Rolexes available and we should get back to what it was like a few years back.

Now I’m Not as experienced with Rolexes cause I’ve been a Patek guy and have been able to pretty much get any Rolex I want (msrp ofcourse). But the key here is just patience. Yes a buying history helps but it’s not as critical simply because your average Rolex is 10k your average patek is 50k? Maybe more?

if you have a local Rolex dealer just stop in and make it known what piece you want. Calling isn’t as effective. Going to to store makes a big difference. These aren’t rare watches. 1.5 million a year? Somewhere in that ballpark? Your dealer will get plenty of inventory and if you are in the store often, you will get your pieces.


This has been my experience. I don’t sell anything or trade anything. I’m just a private collector who has had the fortune of being in the game before all the hype.

I hope this has been helpful. Apologies if this was a waste of your time.

 

Thanks for sharing your unique experience.

 

Thanks for this. I also learned that if you’re doing other jewelry business with the AD, the Rolex you want may become available sooner. The display cases were still empty, but we were in the store yesterday and while the g/f was getting her ring sized a couple of Submariners somehow appeared from the back room.


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100% accurate. Tons of inventory but just not in plain sight. Helps to give the appearance of scarcity and reduce the chances of you asking for a discount.

 

I got a follow up call from my AD on a rolesor sky dweller. I met with him twice probably 6 months to a year ago to get on his list. I think it is likely due in fairly soon so hopefully will have good news. He says I am number one on his list for this whereas the stainless one I would be like number 15 or worse… so I stayed with the rolesor. I really wanted the blue dial, but he said that it was a unicorn and that he wouldn’t even put my name down on one because I guess he had been told by corporate he’d not be seeing one… like ever.

our second house is in another state so I dropped in to that AD also and got on their list as well. For them, I gave them three models I’d be interested in but only with a blue dial. The woman owner there took down my info and welcomed me to the neighborhood.
Both Rolex AD had “exhibition” watches only but their cases were back to full. But none of the exhibition watches could be purchased, although they had my blue dial right there… that was frustrating.

anyway, I wanted to add a Rolex so I’m being patient to get the one I wanted. Hopefully soon. I am not willing to overpay on the gray market for these, and I won’t buy something to get on their list. I wouldn’t buy a California to get on the pista list. Anyway, if it happens, it happens. I’ve got other watches I enjoy. Patek is out of my pay grade.

Robb

 

Our Palm Desert AD actually had a Patek catalogue in their display case. And… nothing else.


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I’m really enjoying this thread.


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Great write up was a really interesting read, thank you for posting on your experience, it sounds wonderful. Ref your comment on the green dial 5711, are they really going to buy all of these? Given the limited numbers seems like a huge amount are being flipped? https://www.chrono24.com/patekphilippe/ref-57111a014.htm#gref This is what I have never understood, it can't be that hard to figure out who is flipping these and just put a stop to it?

 

The ones being flipped are not from the US market. They know their ADs, they know their customers. Likely overseas sellers and It’s a fine line for Patek- while they don’t want their watches flipped- an occasional gray market sale for a stupid price doesn’t hurt the brand.

Patek in the us will buy suspicious pieces to see the serial number. This is why they went from 150 or so ADs to roughly 60. They are dialing it in the us. Rest of the world is more difficult.

 

Only been sporadically checking in with my ADs for years for an Oysterflex... still waiting!

 

We were in Zurich 2 days ago and went into the AP dealer to have a look around. I was told I needed an appointment and the next available one was in about 3-4 months. So we’re gonna camp out in front of the store for at least few months I guess. Lol.

 

I was offered the exact same watch last week , out of the blue...(pun intended) and jumped on it...Looks awesome!!