whats the next ferrari to appreciate significantly over the next 5 years?

I purchased my car to enjoy when I can, as a reward for many years of hard work. I intend to do just that regardless of the market value. The dollar value cannot replace the experience!

 

I think much of what you say is very insightful, as ever, particularly regarding the trend for young wealthy people (there has been a huge demographic shift towards youth in wealth) to buy what's newest and shiniest. I was with a friend in his 250 Cali Spider, a $15m car, and when we drew up next to a bog standard 488, the young tourists were all taking pictures of the 488, even though you could have bought 45 of them for one of 'our' car.

But, modern Astons may drop like stones; however older ones are in some cases doing much better than Ferraris from the same era. Pre-1990 V8 Vantages were ugly (I think), antiquated and generally rubbish, and they are selling for four or five times the price of any 1980s Ferrari, save the F40/288. DB5s are riding high also. If you'd bought a DB5 five years ago you'd have done a lot better now than if you'd bought a BB or even a Daytona.

Not sure why.

And why are BBs so much lower than Daytona prices? It's not a generational thing - one replaced the other. And it can't be just numbers (1300 Daytona v 2300 BBs approx).

 

I had a poster of the BB - yellow over black - when I was in high school, but the Daytona was the first Ferrari that really caught my imagination. The 365 GTC/4 2+2 was also beautiful to me. That was the beginning of the modern era as far as I'm concerned. The 275 and before are the classics.

 

I am in agreement, maybe we should change our prognostications from 5 years to 10+. That enables valuations more concrete then the ebb and flows of a cyclical economy.

 

My cars.... j/k

Because I don't plan to sell, I think the depreciation does not really matter to me. That's what I told my wife.. .. hehe

 

They all go up, and they all go down. However they are only worth what somebody is willing to pay.

If in 10 years gas operated cars are replaced with electric, good luck selling a classic Ferrari for any price..10 yeaes later..

 

Are you saying when gas cars are squeezed out they will then lose value?


Sent from my 16M

 

One thing all “futurists” have in common: invariably they are wrong.

 

I don't know, i still remember reading Gates' "the road ahead" back in late 90s.

I was like 'yeah right'

Pick up that book for free anywhere, you'll find everything he said came to pass....

 

I'm kinda with Paul here.. for the long term it's a 50/50 wash but I thought Andreeson was full of it with LoudCloud in the early 90's. Now AWS is huge. I just don't think the change is as fast or as dramatic as some will portray. In 1968 the year 2010 was portrayed as having a moon base and permanent space station. Instead we're all looking into our phones.. but the ISS circles the earth..
FWIW Gates VR prediction with screen resolution was on par, the sensation technology is still a bit off.. gut interestingly the public still hasn't embraced it en-mass.

 

1. We don't have the infrastructure for that many EV's, the capability would overload our grid, thats just a pipe dream that won't come true especially as oil prices keep tumbling and EV subsidies of $7,500 are phased out. You can't buy a Tesla here soon with $7,500 off the price, that will affect ALOT of demand. Moreover there aren't enough materials to make all these imaginary batteries for the world. Cobalt,Lithium, etc these aren't just things in unlimited quantities, hedge funds, like vultures, have already circled some things like cobalt and driven the price to the moon, it will affect manufacturers moving forward.

2. Have you ever driven an EV? A tesla is a super cool method of transportation, its simple, its high tech, but it was the most bland experience I've ever had in my life. It made no noise at all. Even a rolls royce ghost has a little exhaust note letting you know its got a 600 hp v12. Cars that have no soul may be what the mass want, but there will always be enthusiasts who want exhaust and driving experience, and gas powered exotics will always offer that.

 

2. Have you ever driven an EV? A tesla is a super cool method of transportation, its simple, its high tech, but it was the most bland experience I've ever had in my life. Cars that have no soul may be what the mass want, but there will always be enthusiasts who want exhaust and drivingexperience, and gas powered exotics will always offer that.

I tend to agree with you, but I don’t think the power plant matters to most except for the passionate auto enthusiast. I think design is number one, then speed/acceleration is a close second. I don’t think the younger generations are as concerned with where that power comes from. If the car looks amazing and goes fast, they will sell.

 

again as i mentioned above, do some research on the capabilities of the grid. It's physically impossible to have that many EV's and charge them and moreover the cost to produce that many batteries is just impossible to compute bc the materials just don't exist. We physically cannot add 100 million ev's to the US grid and charge them without straining the grid. It's all nice in theory but with oil prices plunging, we're sub $2 in many parts of the US again, Ev's are just toys for rich people. They're not even as green as people think they are. I just chuckle when I see people who drive electric cars thinking they're saving the world. There's one here in miami license plate "0 oil" lol ok pal what are your tires made of? What about all the cheap plastic inside your car.....

If anything EV's should make our gas powered ferraris shine as real cars

 

I remember prognostications like, hotrods would never be allowed on the roads after about 1980, nobody will be able to hotrod cars now due to electronic fuel injection, and blah, blah, blah.

Now some redneck car guys have laptops and a chip burners to program their own ECU's.

 

I’m not disagreeing with you, although don’t underestimate the power of the marketplace. If the demand exists, someone will figure it out. My point is simply that most are attracted to design first and foremost, then speed and acceleration, regardless of its source. I don’t think the next generations are all caught up in traditional gasoline motors like we were growing-up. Aside from a small number most couldn’t care less.

 

Believe me when i say I'm 100% sympathetic to everything you said and found my self nodding in agreement.

However a lot of governments are mandating it. That's what really scares me.

 

IT will most certainly be the next one I sell .. and of course the one to drop in value will likely be the next one I buy ..
sell low buy high as they say or is that the other way around always seem to get that wrong...

 

Such a beautiful example. The t Coupe is my favorite Mondial.

Enjoy!

Image Unavailable, Please Login

 

I agree with you. Im seeing the same thing in pop culture collectibles. From ~2000-recently it was all about the cartoons, movies and music from the 1980s. Not anymore. Thats all tanked and everyone wants stuff from the 1990s because the new generation of buyers grew up in that era.

Same with cars. I also agree with you that its probably still a bit too early for cars as they require a deeper bank account. Teens from the 1990s are now between 30-40 years old. On the early side of having the bank accounts to afford car collecting.

In another 5 years thats when the 90s car prices will start to skyrocket.

 

Look at the cell phone. They existed in the 1970s ! But it took another 20 years of development and cost cutting to get them mainstream.

Same is happening with 3d printing. I remember the first 'you will be able to 3d print that right at home' marketing in the late 1990s. Its only just now beginning to happen and still another 20 years away before it really is like an appliance.

 

We didnt have the infrastructure for the car 100 years ago either. Now look around. In just over 100 years we have paved the planet to accommodate the automobile. Now we are on the cusp of self driving cars etc..it happens fast. The infrastructure will grow along with the demand. It always has.

 

things are different now and for better or worse we could never build the infrastructure that was built for the automobile today.. back in the first 60 years of the last century ... we could do anything just by having the desire example the interstate road system the president declared it and it got built now we would be tied up in 50 years of red tape and environmental studies and global warming worries ... etc etc.... back then infrastructure just took money now it is very slow and nearly impossible

 

Disagree..electric cars are the flavor of the month. They will throw money at it, and are already doing so. Every car manufacturer is starting to push the electric cars. The supporting structure has no choice but to be built and modified to support it.

Then the next big thing will come along, and the cycle repeats..