The Game Changer: I have seen the future and it's no longer a long way off... Tesla has an odd problem--their regular production cars are so back ordered that they haven't been able to get around to their electric semi.But there are hints a few will be produced, maybe at their Nevada plant. They are already hiring technicians for service centers. Whereas cars for regular commuting and pleasure driving are somewhat dependent on styling appeal, the Tesla trucks are not beautiful but you can bet aerodynamically they will be pretty close to the best aero you can get on a tractor without going to an egg shaped cockpit (see Colani --the Swiss designer had some aero designs that promised more). The American truck industry is waiting and watching to see: 1.)how much weight can they haul ( needs to be 60,000 to 80,000 lbs.). 2.)How far can they travel before needing to be plugged in? 300 miles would be the minimum expected, 500 would be fine. 3.( How long will it take to charge one? One hour would be good but even 3 to 4 might work if the charging station have dorms for truckers to take a shower, and catch some shut-eye while the truck is being recharged, so next we will see Tesla portable motels next to the chargers. Trucker re forbidden from spending too many hours at the wheel so if the range extends to be about the time they take their first sleep break, that would be ideal. The crunch will come if most companies want the 500 mile range one, which goes 200 miles behind the base 300-mile one and adds $30,000 to the price over the base model. Can Tesla produce enough of the larger batteries? If all the nation's truckers order them, and spend $30,000 more than originally planned the price of shipping will go up.. The purchase cost may be more than ICE trucks but it i expected that the cost of maintenance will be lower. They don't have to build a factory. They already have one next to their battery plant in Nevada. Production though will be slow: only five a week by the end of the year. Now sources familiar with the matter told Electrek website that the drive axle production line is ready and the general assembly line is going through its final debugging before starting production. It is one of the last steps There are several firms that have reservations in but the first ones will go to Tesla themselves--Tesla trucks delivering parts to Tesla factories. Musk is the king of vertical integration. But it would be good PR and free advertising if the trucks can be sold to businesses that are everywhere. i have only to see Amazon Prime delivering to my apt. house daily to know they are everywhere PepsiCo, plans to take delivery of 15 Tesla Semi trucks for their Frito-Lay facility in Modesto, California. What I predict is that after the first quarter of Tesla Semis are in action for a private firm, a report will be issued on maintenance cost and downtime for mechanical reasons. If that report shows big improvements over Diesels, Diesels will be dead. Future employment of Diesel mechanics, sale of diesel parts,even trade schools teaching diesel maintenance will close or alter programs to include electric truck maintenance, the sooner the better.. All we have to do I look back at film cameras. I've shot maybe 40,000 pictures on film but almost gave my film cameras away when digital cameras took over. Today i wouldn't touch film There are die-hards who will stick with Diesel but unlike film , Diesel emissions will be legislated out of existence. to the point where will be NO Diesel engines admitted to ports like the Port of Los Angeles by 2030. The biggest game changer will be who's behind the wheel. First of course will be humans. But then as Full self Driving proves adequate for the big empty parts of the US--say between California and the Midwest--I predict the driverless trucks will stop at depots in Nevada and Ohio to be temporarily steered into delivery/pickup location by temp drivers similar to "pilots" boarding cruise ships as they near port, the local pilot knows the hazards. So do the math--if 2/3rds of the trip can be driven by AI, robots or FSD, that's a lot of human drivers that will be off the payrolls. THERE WILL BE even a brief flurry of ol' fashioned Wild West-style rustling, with hackers diverting trucks off the road, and stripping them of cargo. But then Tesla will employ drones directed by satellites and such attacks will be rendered useless (and who do you think has thousands of satellites overhead? Space-X, another Musk owned enterprise). And so it is--all this would have already happened but for the unexpected popularity of Tesla cars postponing the trucks. But for those states where the governor would like to curtail emissions to show they re climate conscious, it will be a feather in their cap if they greenlight electric semis. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- \
The better solution would be modular batteries. Swap your dead one for a charged one like an empty propane tank. Sent from my Samsung Note 8 using FerrariChat.com mobile app
I thought of that. But what if they swap in a damaged one that couldn't deliver the same range? Maybe they will warranty the re-charged replacements? But then you're implying after a few minutes for the swap, the driver would be "good to go" whereas many States require human driverd to take a prolonged break after several hours at the wheel. Unless you're figuring these semis will be pilotless FSD, robots don''t need no friggin' break....
They will not be able to make a truck that has the range or payload to be cost effective. Massive issues with charging network for the Semi’s they don’t have room for the Semi’s at their current charging network. Full self driving trucks are a long way off, way too many issues at this point to let loose an 80,000 lb moving missile.
Don't forget "range" is under optimum conditions and you'll never get "full range" because that requires "full charge" which is not time efficient (not even for Tesla cars), so, your benchmark must be 80% quoted range and the probably less because optimum conditions are not sufficiently consistent. But for long haul, electric cannot compete, batteries are too heavy, take up too much of the maximum allowed load. But, Telsa (and all others) have a major scaling issue, battery production will be the ultimate chokehold that prevents large volume production and each truck battery pack(s) will be equivalent to a dozen or more cars...it will also stop Teslas from making more than 2m cars a year, at least for the next several years. The Frito Lay test rollout is using mega-chargers, those do not scale and will be very rare along any interstate route forever, so recharging in the wild away from specialty complexes will be rare if not exclusive to such facilities. The whole thing is progressing at a snail's pace...this from a few weeks ago https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-semi-first-megachargers-ready-for-service/
I am not sure if the critics of battery life are cognizant of the new 4680 battery design. Also how much would switching to a slide out modular battery delay the mass production? I'm not sure if I owned a truck if I'd want to accept someone else's used-but-recharged battery. On the other hand if the replacements are fully warrantied...maybe
See "Electricity, the shortage of" , then read "Our crumbling electrical energy infrastructure". Then read up on our non existent plans to fix either.
The thought occurred to me that these figures of weight to be hauled vary from 60,000 to 80.000 lbs. But that must be for full trucks. i don't know if semi tractors are driven long distances (thousands of mile) once they emptied their cargo or are they lined up with a new cargo for the return trip? If they are driven long distances with empty trailers, that will be easy on the batteries. But i don't know how much of the time tractor trailers are hauling empty trailers. Anyway Musk told talk show host Joe Rogan “You want something in the order of probably a 500 kWh pack. What we have in the Model S and X is a 100 kWh pack and probably something like a 500 kWh pack in the Tesla Semi.” He also said the higher priced semi will have “almost twice the driving range, the larger battery pack could be between 800 and 900 kWh."
They can't make money doing one way hauls. Thats why even owner operators work with agencies that arrange loads.
Its the only answer if we want the world to operate on electricity but no one is facing up to it or maybe just not admitting it yet. You know how long it takes to build one even after everyone agrees? Best get busy.
You understand. I understand. There's no free lunch when it comes to energy. This is particularly true today given our massive daily energy consumption. Next time you fly at night, get a window seat. Watch as small town after small town lights up the sky. Then watch as you hit a big city. What's amazing is how well the current system works.
I changed my mind on replacing batteries in trucks because after seeing Sandy was down on that idea for cars, I can see where with trucks the problems would be worse. Find on You Tube under title SANDY MUNRO Debates New "Full Battery in 1 Minute" Tech 15:31 / 17:16 SANDY MUNRO Debates New "Full Battery in 1 Minute" Tech 15:31 / 17:16 SANDY MUNRO Debates New "Full Battery in 1 Minute" Tech
If electrical self driving trucks are actually the future, there is the next question - will Tesla be better than the "traditional" trucks manufacturers when this will happen? Today Tesla is leading on electrical cars, but I believe their approach is simply not sustainable for a mass-production manufacturer: they accepted losing money for a long time, and now they play on a niche market that is politically favoured world wide. If / when electrical vehicles become the norm, there will not be anymore unfair incentive to any manufacturer and Tesla will have to cope with a fair competition, at which point it remains to be seen how they will compete. In Europe ICE cars are overtaxed, and Tesla cars crossing the American continent and the Atlantic ocean on diesel-powered trucks and ships are subsidised by the European governments (since the poorly educated green lobbyists think it makes sense in order to save the planet). But the governments need the tax money, there is no way this model is sustainable - the main manufacturers knew that, they knew that if they had gone the same route than Tesla the model would have immediately collapsed so it was useless to compete with Tesla in these conditions. It's not necessarily a sign that they are technically behind.
Go Inside the New Tesla Semi: Features, Screens, Seats, and More We visited Frito-Lay to find out what the Semi's interior looks like, and how it drives and charges. https://www.motortrend.com/reviews/tesla-semi-interior-review/?eml=organic:eml:brz:012523:tesla_semi:articlerint:mt&utm_source=braze&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=mtod_print
I've taken about 200,000 images on film over the last 43 years... What you left out was how they are outlawing chemicals made in film and paper processing. I sent you a PM...
https://www.trucking.org/economics-and-industry-data Currently 4MILLION Class 8 trucks in USA, and those do not have to move around 7+ tons of battery pack that reduces how much freight can be shipped, Tesla will never "take over", ever. In its entire history Tesla has not yet made even 4 million cars...period... https://www.licarco.com/news/how-many-tesla-cars-have-been-sold not to mention fleet turnover
Nothing is pointless, it's easy to do electric trains, easier than cars or trucks, it's a lot easier to swap out 'battery cars' at designated points along the route. PITA maybe, but doable. Never say never. AndI was kidding about 'airplanes, too', even though someone is supposedly working on one, maybe Harley-Davidson.....
So, have you ever considered the actual amount of power required to get a mile+ long freight train moving? Batteries can never handle it, not to mention the severe cold in which they must continue to function at 100% (through mountain passes, high elevations, etc)? Yes, I know that modern locomotives are electric-motive, but they are supplied their power, in real time, by huge diesel engines. As for airplanes, what is being worked on is a total and complete joke, I hope none of them ever receive FAA approval, very very scary if any actually do, but I doubt that (and that's just for VTOL, not fixed wing). Consider that modern civilian aircraft routinely operate in very hostile environments, temperatures well below 0F, as cold as -50F or more, never going to happen for those aircraft, ever, batteries cannot function in such environments. Harley-Davidson, never pay any attention but their stock/market cap look ok, and they are making product for China with QianJiang and importing them here, hmm.
Of course I have considered how much power it would take.... And you obviously never heard the joke among motorcycle riders: 'Would you get on an airplane built by Harley-Davidson?' It's a joke due to Harley's propensity for breaking down in the middle of nowhere and needing parts replaced...