What's wrong with my scenario on how Tesla will take over the semi-truck market?

The Game Changer:
I have seen the future
and it's no longer a
long way off...





Tesla has an odd problem--their regular production cars are so back ordered that they haven't been able to get around to their electric semi.But there are hints a few will be produced, maybe at their Nevada plant. They are already hiring technicians for service centers.

Whereas cars for regular commuting and pleasure driving are somewhat dependent on styling appeal, the Tesla trucks are not beautiful but you can bet aerodynamically they will be pretty close to the best aero
you can get on a tractor without going to an egg shaped cockpit

(see Colani --the Swiss designer had some aero designs that promised more).

The American truck industry is waiting and watching to see:

1.)how much weight can they haul ( needs to be 60,000 to

80,000 lbs.).

2.)How far can they travel before needing to be plugged in? 300 miles

would be the minimum expected, 500 would be fine.

3.( How long will it take to charge one? One hour would be good but even 3 to 4 might work if the charging station have dorms for truckers to take a shower, and catch some shut-eye while the truck is being recharged, so next we will see Tesla portable motels next to the chargers. Trucker re forbidden from spending too many hours at the wheel so if the range extends to be about the time they take their first sleep break, that would be ideal.


The crunch will come if most companies want the 500 mile range one, which goes 200 miles behind the base 300-mile one and adds $30,000 to the price over the base model. Can Tesla produce enough of the larger batteries? If all the nation's truckers order them, and spend $30,000 more than originally planned the price of shipping will go up..

The purchase cost may be more than ICE trucks but it i expected that the cost of maintenance will be lower.

They don't have to build a factory. They already have one next to their battery plant in Nevada. Production though will be slow: only five a week by the end of the year.

Now sources familiar with the matter told Electrek website that the drive axle production line is ready and the general assembly line is going through its final debugging before starting production.

It is one of the last steps There are several firms that have reservations in but the first

ones will go to Tesla themselves--Tesla trucks delivering parts to Tesla factories. Musk is the king of vertical

integration. But it would be good PR and free advertising if the trucks can be sold to businesses that are everywhere. i have only to see Amazon Prime delivering to my apt.
house daily to know they are everywhere

PepsiCo, plans to take delivery of 15 Tesla Semi trucks for their Frito-Lay facility in Modesto, California.

What I predict is that after the first quarter
of Tesla Semis are in action for a private firm, a report will be
issued on maintenance cost and downtime for mechanical reasons.
If that report shows big improvements over
Diesels, Diesels will be dead.
Future employment of Diesel mechanics, sale of diesel parts,even trade schools teaching diesel maintenance will close or alter programs to include electric truck
maintenance, the sooner the better..

All we have to do I look back at film cameras. I've
shot maybe 40,000 pictures on film but almost gave
my film cameras away when digital cameras took
over. Today i wouldn't touch film There are die-hards
who will stick with Diesel but unlike film , Diesel
emissions will be legislated out of existence. to the point
where will be NO Diesel engines admitted to ports like the Port
of Los Angeles by 2030.

The biggest game changer will be who's behind the wheel. First of course will be humans. But then as Full self Driving proves adequate for the big empty parts of the US--say between California and
the Midwest--I predict the driverless trucks will stop at depots in Nevada and Ohio to be temporarily steered into delivery/pickup location by temp drivers similar to "pilots" boarding cruise ships
as they near port, the local pilot knows the hazards.

So do the math--if 2/3rds of the trip can be driven by
AI, robots or FSD, that's a lot of human drivers that
will be off the payrolls.

THERE WILL BE even a brief flurry of ol' fashioned
Wild West-style rustling, with hackers diverting trucks off the road,
and stripping them of cargo. But then Tesla will
employ drones directed by satellites and such attacks
will be rendered useless (and who do you think
has thousands of satellites overhead? Space-X,
another Musk owned enterprise).

And so it is--all this would have already happened but for the unexpected popularity of
Tesla cars postponing the trucks. But for those states
where the governor would like to curtail emissions to show they re climate conscious,
it will be a feather in their cap if they greenlight electric semis.

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I thought of that. But what if they swap in a damaged one that couldn't deliver the same range? Maybe they will warranty the re-charged replacements? But then you're implying after a few minutes for the swap, the driver would be "good to go" whereas many States require human driverd to take a prolonged break after several hours at the wheel. Unless you're figuring these semis will be pilotless FSD, robots don''t need no friggin' break....

 

I am not sure if the critics of battery life are cognizant of the new 4680 battery design. Also how much would switching to a slide out modular battery delay the mass production? I'm not sure if I owned a truck if I'd want to accept someone else's used-but-recharged battery. On the other hand if the replacements are fully warrantied...maybe

 

The thought occurred to me that these figures of weight to be hauled vary from 60,000 to 80.000 lbs. But that must be for full trucks. i don't know if semi tractors are driven long distances (thousands of mile) once they emptied their cargo or are they lined up with a new cargo for the return trip? If they are driven long distances with empty trailers, that will be easy on the batteries. But i don't know how much of the time tractor trailers are hauling empty trailers. Anyway Musk told talk show host Joe Rogan “You want something in the order of probably a 500 kWh pack. What we have in the Model S and X is a 100 kWh pack and probably something like a 500 kWh pack in the Tesla Semi.”

He also said the higher priced semi will have “almost twice the driving range, the larger battery pack could be between 800 and 900 kWh."

 

I changed my mind on replacing batteries in trucks because after seeing Sandy was down on that idea for cars, I can see where with trucks the problems would be worse. Find on You Tube under title
SANDY MUNRO Debates New "Full Battery in 1 Minute" Tech































15:31 / 17:16




SANDY MUNRO Debates New "Full Battery in 1 Minute" Tech































15:31 / 17:16




SANDY MUNRO Debates New "Full Battery in 1 Minute" Tech

 

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