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When will the F12 reach the bottom of the bell curve?

Discussion in 'FF/GTC4Lusso/F12/812S' started by VG221, Sep 22, 2018.

  1. raider1968

    raider1968 F1 Rookie
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    Mar 13, 2008
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    How about the interior
     
  2. Dontbethatguy

    Dontbethatguy Rookie

    Nov 25, 2017
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    Trevor D
  3. F12JAJ

    F12JAJ Formula Junior

    Apr 24, 2016
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    Jerry
    That is a steal. Sold my 2014 with under 4K miles for $230k.


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  4. F12JAJ

    F12JAJ Formula Junior

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    Is this blue TDF? Love the spec.


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  5. VG221

    VG221 Rookie

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  6. VG221

    VG221 Rookie

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    When was that if you don’t mind me asking?
     
  7. F12JAJ

    F12JAJ Formula Junior

    Apr 24, 2016
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    Less than one month ago. It was listed with the dealer for $255k but no takers and I wanted to get into a Speciale they had so I pulled the trigger as prices were dipping. Maybe could’ve gotten another $10k if I waited another month but didn’t want to lose out on the Speciale.


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  8. Dontbethatguy

    Dontbethatguy Rookie

    Nov 25, 2017
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    It is NART blue. There’s a NART blue 458 Speciale with red interior that’s been for sale for months that I considered before buying my spider, but he wants all the money at $419k. Would’ve been cool to have two NART blue F cars.

     
  9. F12JAJ

    F12JAJ Formula Junior

    Apr 24, 2016
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    Yeah, I’ve seen that Speciale. It’s been on the market forever. I’ve ordered the 812 in TDF blue with black TDF rims and red calipers. So I appreciate your color combo choices.


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  10. somi talwar

    somi talwar Rookie

    Dec 22, 2018
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    somit talwar
    Sorry for your loss. Going through similar. My wife only was 35 years old and just run a half marathon. Could not agree with you more. F12 was her favorite car. After 10 years of not owning ferraris, picked up a 2017 F12. Life is indeed short.


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  11. iloveferrari

    iloveferrari Formula 3

    Dec 14, 2014
    1,233
    Actually there is no "bottom" on the bell curve...i think you meant the left side of the bell curve, but then when the prices are dropped, there will be a new bell curve.

    I think you meant the depreciation curve.
     
  12. iloveferrari

    iloveferrari Formula 3

    Dec 14, 2014
    1,233
    Depends on who the next president is going to be and how the stock market reacts. The exotic car market follows that of the stock markets.
     
  13. Adamas

    Adamas F1 Rookie
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    Not a chance
     
  14. MDEL

    MDEL Formula 3
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    The depreciation curve of the 599 GTB Fiorano that was the F12 Berlinetta predecessor went like this; The price of a new 599 GTB in Germany when it started being commercialized in 2006 was around 300.000 €. The new cars continued being delivered until 2012 and two years later, in 2014, the average price for an used one in Germany was already around 110.000 €. That means a depreciation of 63 per cent in two years. If we look now at the 599 GTB prices in Germany they average 115.000 € and that's more or less the price of 2014. The 599 GTB suffered a very quick and abrupt depreciation as soon as the F12 Berlinetta deliveries started at the end of 2012 and it seems the prices have stabilized since at that low level.
    The F12 Berlinetta was launched in 2012 with a commercialization price in Germany around 320.000 € and the model last deliveries occurred in 2017 when the sucessor 812 Superfast was released. If we look now at the used F12B available for sale in Germany we see an average price of around 220.000 € and that means roughly a depreciation of 31 per cent in one year. Will the F12 Berlinetta reach the 63 per cent depreciation of the 599 GTB in the second year (end 2019) ? That answer is futurology and therefore anything is possible but IMO the F12B is holding the prices better than the 599 GTB and I would be very surprised if it depreciates another 30 per cent until the end of 2019.
    To conclude, the bottom of the bell curve for the 599 GTB happened more or less two years after the sucessor model was released. The F12 Berlinetta prices could take several more years to reach their bottom therefore we have just to wait and see.
     
  15. Themaven

    Themaven F1 Rookie
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    That's not correct. The NYSE composite went from under 11000 to above 13000 in a period from 2016 to 2018 when all the classic car indices dropped. Stock market has been hot almost all the last 2 years til a few weeks back. Classic cars have been flatlining or worse for all that time.
     
  16. ryalex

    ryalex Two Time F1 World Champ
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    Aug 6, 2003
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    Well it's not the complete nadir, but if you look by ~10 years out the V12s level off. The four seaters even faster.
     
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  17. Adamas

    Adamas F1 Rookie
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    Barring a borderline financial collapse, F12s are not dropping another @ 50% in next 3-4 years, save perhaps for some outliers with issues. I doubt even ROMO'S old high mileage F12 drops another @ 35%, and I believe that's the lowest priced F12 currently on the market.

    Mike
     
  18. F12JAJ

    F12JAJ Formula Junior

    Apr 24, 2016
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    Having owned and sold an F12, my educated guess would peg the bottom of the F12 pricing at around $195,000. Just my opinion. I agree thought, the lowest level for the F12 pricing will be reached at the end of 2019 as the production of the 812 is revved up by the factory.


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  19. LVP488

    LVP488 Formula 3

    Jan 21, 2017
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    #69 LVP488, Jan 13, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2019
    There are some simplifications here, the average price in Germany in 2014 for used 599 was not exclusively related to 2012 cars. So the 63% depreciation was for cars from 2006 to 2012, and not in two years since I'm sure in 2012 the 2006 cars were not selling for the same price as the new ones (so they had already taken some depreciation). If we assume the average car with the average price in 2014 was from 2009, it was 5 years old so suffered the 63% depreciation in 5 years, not 2.
    I also doubt the average price in 2006 was €300K, this amount was for a heavily optioned car.
    In France I bought in 2010 a 2007 car, I paid €170K and computed at the time that its list price was €250K (so a 32% depreciation in 3 years). My 599 had F1 gearbox, CCM brakes (not standard in 2007), steering wheel with LEDs, Bose HiFi and contrasted stitching, so it had a few options, of which some were relatively expensive.
    Regarding the F12, there has been a circumstancial bubble on the market for all Ferrari from 2014 to 2016 - which has supported all used Ferrari prices, irrespective of the model (that's what makes the impression of the 458 having been performing very well against depreciation) but IMHO not relevant in the long term.
    As things are retourning to normal it's now possible to find some F12 for as low as €180K (even lower for high mileage cars), and several from Ferrari handlers at less than €190K (so I'm not sure the average is still €220K, even though obviously the 2012 cars with low mileage have higher prices - for €280K one gets a car with delivery miles).
     
  20. bobbyd

    bobbyd Formula Junior

    Nov 17, 2003
    704
    Base US price of F12 was about $325K new. The car came to the US market in 2013. Expect 10 years later about 50% depreciation give or take so by then F12's should be in the $165K range plus/minus $20K.

    Factor in downward pressure from used 812's as well. The second hand market on 812's is weak. That will influence F12 values as the two are obviously closely related.

    Long term I think either will be decent ownership propositions if well bought.
     
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  21. Thecadster

    Thecadster Formula Junior
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    Apr 27, 2017
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    The F12 enjoys a unique position. It’s quite a big step up from the 599 (hp, DCT, more refined, more sorted, etc) and gives up very little to the 812 (4ws, hp, more refined, somewhat polarizing styling, etc). Those cars represent the boundaries and the price probably lands much closer to the 812 than the 599. I bought my 2014 about 19 months ago with 259 miles on it for $288,000. I thought it was an incredible bargain at the time (it has $403,951 MSRP). It’s dropped so much in the last several months, that I might just keep it when my 812 arrives in May, because I feel like the cost of ownership will be so low by then (opportunity cost, insurance/registration/maintenance, depreciation).
     
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  22. dustman

    dustman F1 Rookie

    Jun 12, 2007
    4,114
    Too many f12’s sold in USA, will be a $100k car some day no doubt. But that’s 15yrs out.

    Near term agree $150-200 hold for a while.
     
  23. Bundy

    Bundy Formula 3

    May 18, 2011
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    Well said. Our 2015 Tailor Made F12 is currently for sale after taking delivery of our 812. Asking price $299K on an MSRP $509K. We have been discussing just keeping it, too. So much car for the money and an instant classic. Seems silly to sell it, and I think I’ll regret it when the era of non-assisted NA V12’s ends.

    The F12 also doesn’t have HELE. That alone is worth $50K. ;)

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  24. Potenza430

    Potenza430 Karting
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    Wow...what a beautiful car! Could we get more pictures, and a list of options?
     
  25. Bundy

    Bundy Formula 3

    May 18, 2011
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    Thank you. It’s the ex-icoburn car which has a lengthy thread on FChat. Ferrari of Atlanta’s website has additional pics, too.

    Grigio Ferro. Every CF option, including the engine covers & rare headlight surrounds, plus custom red interior CF details. Pelle Frau leather in Carminio red & Inchiostro black. Alcantara floors & trunk. Nero Elkann wheels & trim.

    I’m experiencing potential seller’s remorse after looking at these pics. I question my emotional “need” to seek out a tdf at 3-4 times the cost.

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