Where will F430 prices go with the release of the new 458?

Steve

In my humble opinion I dont think the scud guys are going to sell their cars for the 458.
I think the 430's may come down a little but not much more than general depreciation.

 

i dont think the prices will drop any faster either. sometimes they actually stabilize or bump a little as people cant get the 458 so they go for the previous model. so demand rises a little

 

I am relatively new to Ferrari ownership but the way I look at it, the prices of the 430, 360, and 355 will not fall much more when the 458 is actually released. My reasoning lies within the increase in base pricing for each new model.

The 458 costs quite a bit more than a 430. Thus I don't think that the 458 will displace the 430 further down the totem pole of pricing. Plus, as already argued, try buying a 458 in 2010. I don't care what the economy says--there will be a huge mark-up in the secondary market on these cars, which might not allow someone with a $150k budget to jump into a 458 thereby allowing him to only buy a 430. There is a huge difference between a $150k car and a $250k car.

Again, not an expert, but I do see logic in my thinking. Anyone have any insight?

 

The prices will continue to fall when the 458 hits the market because plenty of folks will be trading in their 430s to get it. So now you have a bunch of new 430s hitting an already over-saturated market. More supply, same/less demand = lower prices.

 

This is assuming that the 458 is going to drum up a ton of new demand from people who don't already have a Ferrari and who, despite getting excited by the 458, are willing to settle for the 430. Not a very likely scenario.

The 458 and the 430 market are indeed separate in terms of who can buy them, but the introduction of the 458 will push a lot of existing 430s out of owner garages and on to the market. A market that already has a huge overhang of unsold cars. What usually happens when you have a ton of cars for sale that aren't moving and you add another ton? Prices go down.

 

The 430 is a really good car and doesn't have any real driving negatives like some of the other cars. That said, how good does it get??

 

tank like the 360s you can get for the price of a 355 4 months ago

 

I do not think the prices can drop anymore, without more economic crash.. the 360 is already shocking low, 355's refuse to go much lower than 40's... the 430 can drop.. likely a lot more in the 110 even 100k when 458 is out.. but they should hold there..

 

The 430's will continue to drop - the rate may stay the same - but it may also increase.

My personal feeling is that it will increase. Meaning 430's will get cheaper, quicker.

Eventually the franchised dealers will realize that they have to take their losses on the cars
they have been in too deep on for 6mos to 18 mos.

There is a GLUT of cars on the market.

There won't be a waiting list on the 458 - unless Ferrari (again) plays games.

There are brand new 430's sitting on dealer lots unsold. Coupe', Spider, AND Scud.

A good portion of this country is wondering if they are going to have a roof over their head
tomorrow - and food to eat next week. FAR beyond the "official numbers" you see in reports.

So yeah, F430's are going to keep depreciating just like they were "any other car".

Dealers are going to keep expecting WAY OVER MARKET prices - and the cars are going to
CONTINUE not to move. When they do move, it's going to be like the price toilet flushing.

Jim

 

If 430s were in demand, you might see a bump. That is, unfortunately, not the case. Scuds, spyders, and coupes are all readily available and I imagine demand will pick up when sellers throw their arms up in despair, and buyers jump in for the vulture purchase.

In all honesty, I think you you want a 458, you'll be able to take delivery of one without much effort. The market for sports cars and exotics is, to use an understatement, soft.

 

I don't think the 458 will have much effect, particularly with Spiders.

The reason is it's going to be very expensive (about the same as a scud) and that's without options. Also it's not going to appear in significant numbers in US for at least two years. Spiders won't even begin to get here for another 18 months at the earliest.

Given than the F430 is a really fine car (everyone agrees on this) and that there will be no new spiders shipped to the US in over 2 years from the last 430 spider, demand will be high. If demand is high, then so are prices while waiting lists are long.

That means, if you want a fairly new spider with some warranty in the next 2 or even 3 years, you're most obvious choice will be a later model F430 spider OR wait several years AND pay a premium over it.

My only caveat is the economy must start to recover. If the economy remains weak, then it will have much more effect on prices than the introduction of the 458.

 

If you have a Scud coupe and you paid 350 incl options, goodbye to 100K of that !

 

+ 10000.

 

For Scud and 16M prices, look at 04 Stradales compared to same mileage/conditions 05 F430, as far as I know the Stradale is still more expensive. The F430 was a larger improvement over the 360, compared to the F458 improvements over the F430.

With around 500 combined Scuderias and 16M in U.S. in the two years they were produced (2008 and 2009), there is no much room to saturate the market.

However, the F458 will be produced in large quantities. Expect 2000 of them sold in U.S in 2011 (combining Coupes and Spiders), no idea how many will come this year to U.S.

My expectation is that next year you could get a Scuderia for $200k and a 16M for $225k, and they will depreciate at the regular rate after that. This should put a 2005 F430 on the $100k-$110k range, not bad for a 6 years old car that sold for $175k.

People expecting the F458 MSRP to be at $200k are a little optimistic. Ferrari has already reduced their allocations for U.S. and increased their presence in other markets, that means that to sustain revenues, prices need to move up, basic finance.

 

Hey guys, I've been trolling for a while between this forum and *********** and wanted to get some of your thoughts on pricing. I have an M6 now and love it but I'm itching to get into the F430. I'm in no hurry and have the money ready to go but I'm wondering if I should sit out on the sidelines and wait for the 458s to put further pressure on the 430 market. Can prices go lower than this one?

http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/F1-Power-seats-Yellow-tach-Sil-calipers-Red-stitch_W0QQitemZ120524347863QQcmdZViewItemQQptZUS_Cars_Trucks?hash=item1c0fcf99d7#ht_13437wt_1165

I feel like this is pretty good deal?

 

That's debatable.

 

This is exactly what I was told by my authorised Ferrari dealer.
430 owners should do the deal now and flog their trade ins because once the 458 becomes available, there will be lots more usedies on the market and this dealer will not have to be desperate to do the deal on what will be an over supplied used 430 market.

 

All you "market optimists" are assuming 1 thing. You're assuming that the 458 is truly going to sell for the numbers it's asking.

I think you will see something never seen with the 458. You will NOT see people flipping them for big bucks. They'll try, don't get me wrong. I'll even bet they don't all sell at introduction.

I'm not saying the 458 isn't bad ass because I think it's awesome. I just think times are very different now and there are a lot of very awesome cars for sale in the $300K range that can be had also.

There are a lot of "truly collectible" Ferrari's on the market for those numbers.

 

I agree that it is debatable whether the F430 was a larger improvement over the 360 Modena, compared to what the F458 is/will be over the F430.

I'm referring to the standard production cars, not including the Stradale, Scuderia, 16M as there is not yet a F458 Stradale/Scuderia.

My support to the statement is that the F430 got a totally brand new engine, while the 360 was carrying the old 308 engine updated through the years, expensive engine to maintain, and out performed by the competitors engines from Porsche (GT3 RS) and Lamborghini (Gallardo).

This new engine in the F430 was a huge jump in performance, producing 343 ft-lb of torque compared to the 3.6 Modena 275 ft-lb, and an extra 90 Hp. It is still today a very powerful engine after 5 years.

The F430 came with the CCB as an option, these great brakes were not available in the Modena. Another breakthrough technology, at the time used only by Porsche in the GT3/GT3RS/GT2.

So far huge performance gains in the engine and brakes.

The electronics in the F430 put Ferrari at the top again. The Manettino (multi-stage control of suspension, TC, SC, differential) and the e-diff with its variable locking ratio.

Top Speed went from 183mph in the Modena to 196mph in the F430, a lot. The F430 dropped 4 secs/lap at Fiorano compared to the Modena, a huge different on such a short racetrack.

The F458 introduces the dual clutch transmission and direct fuel injection to the Ferrari mid-engine V8, but this is hardly a technology breakthrough (like CCB, manettino, e-diff were in 2005), as both technologies are being used already by Volkswagen/Audi/BMW/Porsche/Lamborghini. The engine is based on the F430 engine, not a new unit but an improvement over an existing one. This car won't drop 4 secs at Fiorano, or gain 13mph at top speed.

The F458 is a great car, but not so much of an advance in technology as the F430 was 5 years ago.

 

^My research shows a "gazillion" 430's for sale.^

I agree that they're a "better car" but the market doesn't care.

 

This subject has been covered before and, as always, it's all speculation. So here goes...........The 458 will not have a big effect on 430 prices mainly because there will be a huge price differential right from the get go. I have an '05 430 I bought new and was on the list for a 458 but got off. The main reason is that I just don't see the value in giving them my car plus 175K for a 458. My 430 already has more performance than I could ever use so a faster car holds little added appeal for me. I know other 430 owners who have similar thoughts. Perhaps if the economy was really cooking and I was hauling in the really big bucks, I'd give it consideration but if that were the case, my 430 would be worth more also. That's not to say 430 prices won't continue to decline, I believe they will. It usually takes 10 years or so for a model to bottom. The newest cars will decline the most, also as expected in normal depreciation. 430 prices were hit hard in the fall of 2008 but have not changed much since then, at least for 2005s. If the economy were to recover significantly and 458s become hard to get, 430 prices might actually increase like 355 prices did in 2000.

Dave

 

+1 as usual well pointed out Dave. What kind of bothers me on these threads, are usually the people who are non-owners and really cannot afford these cars posting about drops in prices. I bought a car in October of last year after searching for the right one for about a year. During that year, I did not pontificate about prices or being a bottom feeder, I just did my homework in finding the best car I could. The rest is really mental masturbation.

 

Not for a few years because no one can afford a 458 yet. So what are you left with, the choice of a 360 or 430.

People with the money buy a 458, people with less money buy a 430 and people with less money still will buy a 360. Depreciation would be accelerated only if 430 -458 came close in price terms.

 

I know I'm new to this board but this is a pretty pious comment... So you're stating that because someone brings up a concern about cars depreciating that they can't afford the car? what kind of logic does that present? Any reasonable person spending six figures on a car regardless of the 100, 200, 300K clip would naturally want to understand where the the direction of the resale market is heading...