Which model be the next classic model?

IMO there were way too many modern day Lambos and Ferraris produced to see appreciation:
14,000 Gallardos
18,000 360's
21,000 430's

If they keep producing these exotics in the quantities listed above, seeing a modern day Ferrari will be as common place as spotting a Toyota Prius. With that said, for increased value I like relatively low production numbers (under 3,000) to start, with the exception of the Testarossa(7177) because it has a racing lineage, was an iconic pinup, has a very unique, over the top design unmatched even by today's standards and is un mistakenly a Ferrari.

My top 4 that I believe are the next high risers:
Countach
Testarossa
512 BB BBI
Diablo

With all due respect to the owners of the following Marquees, my opinion of the following is:

Mondials are the poor man's Ferrari
348's are like Toyota MR2's
355's are nice but problematic to sort and expensive to maintain
458's too new
328, 308, 360, 430 too many collectively produced


F40 & Enzo will continue their ascent like Amazon.com(AMZN) stock despite the F40 spending most of it's time in a mechanic's garage
F50 is the unloved step sister to the F40 that gets no respect, that I actually like a lot more
599's nice but not exotic looking
550 Maranello....~yawn~
512TR not as shape defining as a Testarossa

 

I hear what you're saying. However, this might be a good time to point out that GM produced over 1.5 MILLION Chevrolets in 1957. Try buying one now. I'm just sayin'.

 

Muscle cars are way off their highs now,trend is down vs Euro cars (there are some exceptions in case very special,limited US cars or the Ford GT).

 

Wow, that's a bit of a stretch?

Uhmm....really?

 

Darren,

My up front apology to everyone that read my post and thought I was denigrating their Ferrari in one fell swoop. I believe all Marquees have beauty in some way shape or form.

Mozella,

Quote "I hear what you're saying. However, this might be a good time to point out that GM produced over 1.5 MILLION Chevrolets in 1957. Try buying one now. I'm just sayin'."

I understand your point and believe there is merit to it at some point in time. However, although they all fall into the category of "Automobiles" in the end, I believe there is a different market for American Muscle cars than Exotics. For example, which of the 1.5 million cars produced in 1957, might cost $10,000 to maintain in one year of General Maintenance Service. The cost of Insurance is also different and so too I believe is the general mindset. American Muscle cars have a much broader appeal, are generally easier to work on and lighter on the wallet in most respects. The higher up the food chain you go, the smaller the market.

The racing lineage behind the Testarossa is a stretch but there is a link. I personally own a 512 TR and a 430 so I have no dog in this fight..

Sorry again for sounding like I was ragging on the cars that was not my intent.

 

I think you missed my point. The question is; Which of the cars some of us are driving right now might become a "classic"." I'm not sure of the correct answer, but some folks apparently believe that some Ferraris can never become "classic" simply because they made too many of them.

I thought it important to point out that just because somebody makes a lot of one particular model, 1.5 million in the case of a 57 Chevy, doesn't prevent it from becoming a "classic" in the future. In other words, the 360 and others like it are not automatically out of the running, given enough time of course.

True, it doesn't cost 10 grand a year to maintain a 57 Chevy and it never did. But most of us don't spend that kind of money on our current Ferrari either.

But if you want an example of an old car non-American car which is/was a little bit exotic, the Mercedes Benz 300SL comes to mind. I remember seeing one of these back in the late 50's and it struck me as about as exciting, expensive, and exotic as one of today's new Ferraris. However, it really wasn't anything super special and was produced in numbers about ten times greater than nearly any Ferrari of the day. Yet the 300SL fetches north of seven hundred grand and some more than a million bucks.

Given enough time, any car which is desirable now will be super desirable (and expensive) in the future.

As for broad vs narrow appeal, even crappy cars will eventually become expensive, which isn't quite the same as universally desirable. I'm thinking of the car my friends and I thought of as the worst-of-the-worst when I was a kid back in the 50's; the Nash Rambler. Anyone who's folks owned a Rambler was the laughing stock of the school yard. Yet, a good one fetches 25 grand or more today.

 

Cars that are not as "special" as Ferraris (when produced and on market),have very low survivability compared to the really "special" cars.
40-50 years down the road their higher initial production may not matter as much,most of them turned into razors.
High production Ferraris are affected though,their number will still be very high.
Hence the theory that these high volume cars (456,550,360,430,458,599,etc) will never become true collectibles.

 

I am certainly not in the know, just reiterating what I have read here, thanks for the clarification!

 

I'm always amazed at the comments that reflect "you're going to have to remember where you parked your Ferrari in the parking lot to remember which one is yours because they're so common..." If 21,00 or 16,000 is a worldwide number. How many made it into a country esp the US? 8,000 maybe 10,000? And how many have been taken out of commission because of a fire or idiot driver?

In the end not common at all outside of South Florida, LA and perhaps the NY metro area though I haven't seen too many there. I.e. for 99% of the country of 300 million people a "common" Ferrari is still pretty rare. If you really do the math, 1-2 cars per person = abut 300-600 million cars. 20,000 cars /300,000,000 cars x 100 = 0.0067% of all automobiles. Yeah. Real popular. Which one was mine again? I'd better hang something from the mirror so I can tell.

I'm not sure which FCar will emerge as the collectable.. Its seems the 355 resonates with 40's and 50's tifosi based on the last survey here. Something I don't get.. but my generation may have a different view of quintessential. I'm surprised 512bb and BBi's aren't $200-400k personally. I do agree that like the 80's.. this asset bubble is unsustainable and will correct.

 

agree to first part.
comment on last line though....i think you have to differentiate between some of these models in terms of numbers. the 456 total run was about 3000 cars - which compares favorably with the bb run at a similar number. the barchetta, the superamerica, the cs, and even the scud and speciale, have all been produced in even smaller runs.

BUT the regular 550/575/360/430/458/599 were produced in numbers from 5000 to 18,000 and that is many multiples more.

 

You are right of course,limited editions you listed are exception, I had regular production cars in mind.

 

I disagree. Many of those old cars bringing big bucks have modern ignition systems because the old stuff was unreliable and high maintenance and the modern stuff fixes that but doesn't change the performance or feel of the car.

Same with updating electronics on a 355 or 360. You won't gain performance, that's limited by the heads/cams/etc., not the engine management systems. Same with the f1 system, a new ecu isn't going to make it shift significantly faster or better as you're not improving the basic hydraulics, which are the main limitation on those systems.

 

+1.

Now if an adaptor plate can be made to place a DSG trans in the back of a 360 or 430 with adapted/retrofit electronics...

 

I don't see the same excitement from kids these days about cars as when I was young. I find it is the 40 - 50 year olds that are interested in my 355 versus the late teen early twenty crowd. What does that say about the future of collectivity?

I also couldn't guess what will be collectable as this site has shown me that what one person thinks is a not a nice looking car another thinks it is the best ever?

 

I wonder if the survivorship rate will differ among models. Are some better "cherished" than others?

 

Unlike the 550, these cars were built for and around the F1 transmission. They were all compromises as these cars performed better with the F1. IMHO the 550 Maranello seems like a pure, modern version of past great Ferrari road cars like the Daytona and 275 gtb.

 

How about this? In 20-30 years the internal combustion engine will be dead and all these cars will be dinosaurs akin to CD players, cassettes and turntables.

Flame suit on and ready!



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

My turntable and CD player take exception to that remark.
As does my Betamax.

Thank goodness I saved my cassettes. They play in the GT/4.

 

tell that to the guys who have the few manual trannies in these models....they will tell you how much they like them and how well they work....

 

Interestingly, there were 3.5k 550's built for the world.

4.5k 246GT and GTS
4K Ford GT (I think)

So in terms of production numbers, the 550 isn't necessary too mass produced to be considered special. Especially considering the stigma Dinos broke through after 30 years and GTs lingering on sales floors below MSRP for months. I also believe global wealth and demand for classics will eclipse and contemporary niche-buyers' wealth declining.

I feel as though the 550 fundamentally embodies characteristics that can categorize it as a classic down the road. Nothing on that car will age. The perceived weaknesses, largely labeled by groupthink I'm guessing, might one day be the very things that make it desirable.

At the end of the day it's a (the last exclusively) manual, front engined V12 with classic Ferrari styling that won't confine it to an era. It's only predecessors are the 275GTB and Daytona. It's only successors (for the most part) cross over the technology/digital threshold that may still be relevant now, but may not age so gracefully starting very soon.

There have been many excellent points in this thread. I think we're all very, very close to the lens here though. We're only a tiny subset of current and future Ferrari buyers and owners, and our perspectives- which are on the edge of the spectrum- are warped by being so close to these cars. We need to take a global view if we're discussing the markets at large.

-Joe

 

I see a split of the collector car market in general.
Cars that are desired by car enthusiasts and are still affordable or semi affordable and cars that cease to be just "cars" but rather another valuable collectible on par with impressionist or old masters paintings,sculptures,etc,purchased no longer just by wealthy car collectors but increasingly by art collectors (for whom a $10mln Ferrari is at the lower end of his usual purchases).
This segment is not going to suffer economic downturn as much as the first,if at all......