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Discussion in 'Vintage (thru 365 GTC4)' started by Juan-Manuel Fantango, Jun 8, 2020.
Anyone know the answer to this? It was always very interesting to see.
Did you asked publisher ?
I don’t know, but I rarely read it. Barnes probably figured that it wasn’t worth the effort to try to chase the data any longer.
They are not in every issue.
It was bi yearly IIRC.
No I figured someone here might know. I'm not sure. how accurate it was, but I assumed it was based on actual sales data?
Really, well that explains it we get it have every copy twice, but I thought it was in every issue. Man if that is true I am getting old and forgetful.
Maybe market was moving too fast and they dont publish frequently enough to keep up?
I’m pretty sure they were in every issue. I’ll pull out a couple and check.
That’s part of it, probably, plus other sources like Hagerty probably have direct automated access to on line and live auction results, etc., whereas Cavallino might not.
What I liked about the feature was the production data.
Anyway, it looks like they sold a lot of ad pages to European dealers. Also, the new "Moderno" section takes up space as well. Given the choice between sketchy data and ad pages . . . . . an obvious choice.
Many of the estimates for competition cars that rarely change hands are fantasy numbers. I assume that they ask dealers, brokers perhaps collectors--all of whom offer bullish valuations.
I would imagine the publisher, if anyone, would have the most accurate answer as to why they no longer publish something, while most replies here are likely nothing more than somewhat relative speculation, kind of like what those "price guides" or "value trends" in general offer.
But then again, my suggestion might be speculative also.
Publisher's wife posted here a lot about the Cavallino events, at one time...…...named Alicia.
Barnes has said in the past that he collects information from an assortment of "knowledgeable sources" to come up with the numbers. Sure, some of the numbers from these sources are going to be self serving but on the other hand how else would someone get a feel for valuation on cars that (a) are so infrequently traded, (b) traded privately with non-public numbers, (c) not for sale would might be receptive to an offer at the right price.
At least some years back John Barnes was quite protective of his valuation guide as we discussed a one time usage I was thinking of.
One can always read the journal:
Cavallino, April/May 2020 #236 Page 74 MERCATO
We have decided to temporarily suspend the publication of the Guide for several reasons. One is that the market is flat overall and nearly all the prices have not moved. Two, there has been some panic selling, as some owners need to unload their Ferraris to raise cash or to pay off a note on the car. This leads to unnaturally low sale prices that do not accurately reflect the real value of that car. Third, the current disruption caused by the virus means there is no market at all, as businesses are closed and auctions are cancelled or postponed. In addition, as businesses remain closed and with no real income there will be a rush to raise cash by selling anything tangible, and that includes a hopefully collectible car. Ferraris are cash and they will sell but at panic prices.
We will bring it back when the market is fluid again."
I get the explanation but a current buyer is out of luck getting useful data from that source now. Less data makes it worse IMO.
The prices listed in Cavallino were usually 6 or more months behind the current situation. And oftentimes not very up-to-date.
On top of that, if one follows just auction prices he gets only 30 or less percent of the entire market. The vast majority of sales and deals still takes place between dealers and other dealers and end users but all of that not in public. Auction prices are just a small part of the entire market. IMHO the prices listed on the last page of the bi-weekly Ferrari Market Letter (FML Asking Price Index) are much more accurate and more "up-to-date" (closer to reality), even if they reflect just the asking price and not actual sales prices, which will never be known anyway. But it gives a clearer and better indication of where the market is heading to.
If you wanted to upset Gerald, all you had to do was question the validity of his “asking price” index. His point, which was valid, was any other valuation methodology was fundamentally flawed.
BTW, one of the reasons he insisted on a price and a VIN in FML ads was to update his asking price trend line.
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Thank you I did finally find that last week but forgot to comment. If BAT were an indicator of the market I would suggest prices have not declined and some deals are getting done. Of course I know this is far different, at the tip of the spear, speaking of the rarest and most desirable cars that will ever have been produced. This period will never be duplicated. Much has been written about the future demise of the collector car market, and based on what I'm seeing today from our youth I believe it to be true. Luckily we will all be dead by then.
I know I’ve never been the sharpest knife in the drawer, but if legit*, above has to be one of the most ridiculous assessment/comment published about the “market” of any kind and even more so in the context of an excuse for not “reporting” about it.
Most of the silliest ones within umpteen million different “market” threads here on FChat don’t even come close and if/when they do, they can at least be considered/discounted as personal/private opinions by individuals.
* I haven’t had time to read any of my magazine subscriptions for years and if the above is how they present/represent themselves, I’m not even sure I care to from now on.
Translation: we don't like the data, so we're ignoring it for now. Everything is fine. Nothing to see here....
I do not agree, especially when one thinks of the delay in the assembling an issue and the ship date. As Marcel points out, a publication on a 2 week schedule is more capable of following the market sentiment that something on a 3 month schedule. In the course of the 3+ months of putting an issue together, in times like these anything could have happened between when the data was updated and when the mailing is done.
I have yet to see a valuation guide worth the paper it's printed on - and I would bet I never will!! The only way you can value these cars is actually view in person as many cars as you can AND talk to as many people that are regular market participants. As others have said, many cars trade privately - especially the older limited production cars.
That being said, valuation guides have helped me in the past ---- that is when BUYING from someone who prices a car off guides that were behind the market and thus allowing me to scoop up a bargain. An example of this was Excellence magazine having ridiculously low values for Porsche 964's. The seller got over 20 calls the first day, fortunately I was one of the first ones and was able to do a deal almost immediately. I have had that scenario happen more than once!!
Accurate or not, price guides are powerful for this very reason. People base what they may be willing to pay off of these guides. So, in the end, cars are often (not always) negotiated off of published values. Therefore, I suppose the guides are a fair reflection of the market. Where these guides really do harm is failing to defferentiate a car in ordinary or good condition against one that is exceptional.