Will 3 pedal Cars hold value or is it a 'fad'

When the old guys who started with manual transmission die off the values of the gated cars will drop like a rock. I had a 30 year old PHD in EE from Stanford ride in my Nissan TT. When he got into the car he commented "Oh a manual transmission". I said "Do you know how to drive it?" His reply "No".

When the prices drop hopefully I'm the old man still able to get in/out of the car and can pick up an gated f-car for cheap. Well I can hope!

 

Hmm.. let me guess.. EE PhD's from Berkley. His "normal" car is either a... Prius with a bumper sticker that says "Tofu is the ONLY white meat". Or maybe a Tesla.. perhaps a Camry or an Accord if he's REALLY left brained.

 

You say “the gated cars will drop like a rock”. Are you referring to all pre-F1, pre-DCT, Ferrari ever made?

 

^^Yes, all pre 355F1 will be worthless because no one, in the future, will be able to drive them. All F1 and DCT cars will appreciate, from new, because of the huge demand.

 

Not sure that’s accurate for Ferrari’s. Perhaps overall. Perhaps for daily drivers. Not for rare and exotic cars that are pure luxury items. Desirability is based on many factors not just supply/demand per se. what’s the premium on the vetroresina? That offers no driving difference and to most people,is no different than a “regular” 308.
When the f1 becomes truly dated the relative premium for manual will go up even if the absolute price decreases.

I cannot tell you how many offers I get when my 430 MT is in or around the dealer.

 

I believe we are in the muscle and super car bubble. As future autonomous cars debut, horse power and transmission type will fade away like the old typewriter in favor of lazy driving while being entertained. Kids are already too hooked on technology.

Sure, you'll have the occasional person who goes against the grain and wants something old school and "non-tech."

But let's be honest, if given the chance to own a Ferrari or a self flying passenger carrying quadcopter, which would you choose?

That day isn't far away.

Steve

 

I did not grow up with a stick shift. I taught myself cause I wanted my old Vettes to be Manual. They're just proper that way. My 02 &14 Vette are Auto as I prefer for life on the phone with a Coffee...
My 430 I selected F1 cause I think the Manual looks like an aftermarket add-on (360 looks proper in Manual) I just see Ferrari as Formula 1 and the Paddles suit the car IMHO. My 355 will be gated cause ya know I need at least 1 gated Ferrari...

I don't believe the Self Driving thing will work. There will be too much sensor failure to properly make a decision with. My Wife's car constantly warns to Brake on the least sensitive setting cause AI is programmed by people & well... there's a million situations they haven't encountered or thought of yet.

All cameras are dead in Snow and diminished in Rain. So Radar is the only input for the decision tree. I believe 1 self driving car mistook a Semi as an overpass... then get 100s of thousands of those out there... AI is still a program made by a Human and there's a lot of Mediocre Programmers out there probably working on Self Driving Cars.

Additionally I think new Younger Gens will become enthusiasts down the road. It will be like an acquired taste. I was born in 68 so my 64 Vette wasn't a childhood dream. It was from my growing taste for cars... my 2 cents

 

Well...the value I place on my 3 pedal 360 spider just keeps going up...and I hope it never stops.

 

Man that is super easy. I choose the Ferrari in a heartbeat.
Autonomous lazy driving/flying when it arrives will be dead boring. Polar opposite of a manual Ferrari.

 

In regards to the "younger" guys choice in the future of stick vs. manual: We live in a society that moves really fast now. Most of us (even us older guys) don't have much time to invest in research and taking the time to make a decision that suits us based on the nuances of any situational buy. Shopping for a classic Ferrari is not easy as they are not at your disposal to test drive, compare, and analyze like a big screen TV. Most of us have had to take a flight half way across the country just to experience a car we were interested in. It's a "swipe left" "swipe right" generation that as I see doesn't spend a lot of time making decisions. Move fast and keep moving.

So as a result, I see most younger folks make decisions on what's put in front of them. What they are told is the thing to have is most times what they believe is "the thing to have". Couple that with points already made concerning young folks' lack of enthusiasm for a stick shift car, and I think you have a very open ended question in regards to what it is that will be the "thing to have". Of course, there are always outliers. But will there be enough to affect values?

A young person looking to buy a nice car, occasional use "fun" car will be looking at a lot of exotics that have paddle shift systems. They may just see that as the norm and the "thing to have". To them they may very well see the stick cars as old technology, too engaging, and something that shows them no apparent benefits to their driving style or involvement with the vehicle. FWIW.

I'm old. Our generation grew up with a whole different set of parameters when driving the cars we dreamed of driving. Those parameters now for the younger guys is mostly based on technology of the performance and not so much the involvement with the performance-- as I see it.

 

I love my Ferrari but I'm choosing flying over driving. Especially with optional manual control.

The future controversial conversation will be manual or auto flying copter instead of manual or F1.



Steve

 

This is a well worded post.

 

So, I’ll be able to get an original GTO, or 288 GTO, real cheap?

 

Absolutely. In fact, owners of manual cars will have to PAY people to take them off their hands. The fact that the automatic transmission has been available for over 60 years and you still have a manual contingent is completely immaterial.

Sure. But I wouldn't pay more than $5000 for it because you undoubtedly will be able to buy a gen 1 quad copter for about that amount. Either that or the line is they'll be "collectable" even though nobody can drive it.

I just wish someone would tell all the mexican cab drivers about the F1 transmission and DCT wiping out all the manual demand. Every single one is working the stick and 3-pedals when I go out. Always find it funny how European demand for a 3 pedal is left out of the discussion. Must not have gotten the memo. OTOH if you asked someone in the 60's what 2017 would be like.. I'm supposed to be typing this from the space station.

 

This is scary but may come true. I know it's not in the near future so not worried; however, I wonder how many years or decades before it reach this point.

 

I have read through this thread and I think that a lot of people are missing the point. There are some important parts that no one has mentioned:

1) If someone is looking for a car like the 360, they will always be interested in a manual transmission. If they wanted something with more technology and feel they would be buying a newer car. No one is going to want an old car and not want that authentic old car experience. For the 360, that means a manual transmission (although a quirky F1 transmission could fit the bill, too).

2) The manual in the 360 is much better suited to the car than the F1, while the opposite is true of the F430. They built that whole new motor in the F430 especially for an F1 transmission and it's obvious when you drive it. As a result, the manual in the F430 just feels out of place. Now they did make improvements to F1 in the F430 over the years of production but I never drove a manual F430 that really fit the car. That doesn't mean it's a terrible car to drive or you won't enjoy it, etc. It's just that someone buying the car to drive and not collect or someone who wants the car for something other than to say, "this is the last manual mid engine car Ferrari made" will have a rational argument for an F1.

I don't think that the premium is a fad. I think there will always be a premium, especially with the 360. Do I think it will always be $40k or $50k or whatever? Probably not. But it will be worth more to buyers to have a manual car with these because if all they cared about was getting the fastest and better technology, they could make the jump to the 458. Those 458 prices have come down a lot and they have a lot further to go.

 

In my opinion, and from my experience, (I’ve owned MT 360’s and 430’s), the premium is there because the early F1 transmissions SUCKED. There, I said it. Now I will be cascaded with derogatory comments telling me my opinion is wrong.
BTW, The late model DCT transmissions are terrific. So I am not against paddles. It’s just that the pre-DCT paddle cars are not very good.
I sold my 430 Azzuro California Spider MT car to The Collection in Fort Lauderdale BTW for $197.5k. It was phenomenal! Take a look at it on their website. A wonderful car, but I couldn’t say no to the offer.

 

I'm no expert but I really think the later iterations of the F1 include some very important upgrades. My '03 is a blast to drive and the shifts up and down are great-- and this from a guy that always had 5 and 6 speed stick 911's.

I've heard the complaints on the slushy shifting of the early F1 cars and I can't say I have driven one (an '01, '00, or a 1999) so I've got nothing to compare it to. But after driving my '03 F1 I have a hard time finding fault with it. I can tell you after years of driving the 911's precise feeling shifter (on and off the track) and then driving a 3 pedal 360, I couldn't live with it. It feels clunky and the gate is too antiquated ( crude) for me. And I was already convincing myself that I wanted a 3pedal 360 before I even drove one. I had to decide if this was what I really wanted or just what I'm supposed to really want. The gated 360 was just not for me.
Just one mans opinion.

 

My inexpert opinion says there will always be a premium, but the premium will diminish somewhat as the new Ferrari collectors enter the market in 15 to 20 years, and have less interest in manual transmission cars.

 

I strongly agree... for example I take my nephews who are 5 years old for a ride in my 458 they will have memories of that car for a lifetime and maybe when they turn 30 or 35 one day and make money now they can either buy a 458 that reminds them of their youth or they will buy the latest and greats whatever it is at that time... I don't see why they would want a gated 355 for example or a 308 or a 360. Now a car that has a piece of racing history ... a f40 or a 288gto will appeal to most enthusiasts firstly because of the history that comes along with it transmission and all that other stuff is secondary or maybe of no matter at all.

 

I didn't know the difference between a 308 and a 250 before I bought mine. Now I know all the history and the models etc. I wouldn't be surprised if future collectors discover older models the same way that I discovered the earlier models, when they buy their own. Any look into the future more than 5 years is useless IMHO. Never predicts it..

Not to get into P+R and that's not intended at all, just reciting economic fact.. but your nephews are inheriting a multi-trillion dollar debt with a mature economy. If they have the economy that supports their buying a new Ferrari I'll be pleasantly surprised. They're not going to have the opportunities that their grandparents had.

 

You have some good points but you are selling my nephews and the future generations short my friend. Let's be a little optimistic and hopefull for the future

 

It was only a few years ago that a 360 manual sold for less then an F1.... I think the F1 and manual will be similar priced in the future and certain people will buy a manual others won't. another example is a 550 vs a 575 now every 550 is manual and sells for similar price to a 575 f1...and there are a few 575. manuals that sell for more or atleast did sell for more not so sure about it now...

 

Your nephews are 5. You think that when they have the disposable income to buy a Ferrari, say 40 years from now, that they’re going to buy a 458?
My guess is that in 40 years, in 2058, gasoline is going to be hard to come by, and they’ll be riding, not driving, in a totally different travel conveyance.

 

Honestly who knows if anyone will want these antiques!? Let's see if these millennials will pay a premium for a manual. I think not!!!