Will market 4 Exotics go up as Real Estate Fizzles ?

the RE bubble is a big part of what's been fueling consumer spending the last few years. i don't immediately see how any luxury good will broadly benefit from a RE market fizzle.

the guys shorting RE will do well, but that's something like 1% of the population, presumably

dody.

 

The economy is as strong as it's been in a long time right now so there's no reason to think that an overall decline will help the collector car market. If anything, that market could also decline as the muscle car and sub-$100k ferrari rage is driven by 'regular' folks predominantly - people whose homes comprise a high percentage of their net worths.

Personally, I think there'll be a slight pullback in many parts of the country, but not a fizzle. It's the Feds job to balance the economy using interest rates. It's in nobody's best interest for interest rates to rise so high that people are forced from their homes.

 

no, exotics will continue to decline.

 

Gold is on the rise.

 

A lot of exotics are bought with re-fi money. Busted bubble probably negative on balance.

Dave

 

The number of homes on the market is at an eight-year high. We are shifting from a seller's market to a buyer's market. The speed at which this is happening is remarkable, given that interest rates remain low.

 

Doubtful.

If economy goes soft because of weakness in RE, exotic prices will go down.

 

Rising interest rates will be the biggest party pooper all around.

 

R.E profits fuel discretionary spending on luxury goods. Any detrimental issues in the R.E. world will negatively affect discretionary spending.

The exception to this is of course the super-wealthy. The reality is that very little in economic trends has even the slightest impact on them.

I'm talking of people with tangible and liquid net worth over $100 million. There's more of them than you think and they love downturns because their toys are more plentiful and cheaper to boot as over-leveraged wannabes have to dispose of assets quick and cheap to cover their margin calls.

 

Alex:

Don't forget that there are those of us that don't have net worths over $100MM but have built up sizable cash slush funds waiting for rates to go up and "goodies" to go for cheap...



Erik