Will the 296 even sell for over sticker?

Maybe just enjoy the car?

It’s just a car.

 

My guess is it will sell for over sticker for a while when it first comes out, then it will settle down to msrp and after a year or two it will be below msrp. Pre-Covid this was the trend for almost every regular production Ferrari. Alternatively, in 6 months when it finally gets released the financial world could be in a much worse place and it could be selling for below msrp right away. Who knows but bottom line it is a depreciating asset.

 

I agree with mkraft on the likely scenario. Just take a look at F8s and how high those are. IMO they’ll come down a touch and new early 296s will fill in that spot. So yes early on I think you see 296s at +$100k.

 

first cars always sell for a premium, I've bought them before for a premium and never regretted it - waiting 2 years for delivery of something is just too long in my childish mind that wants it ASAP

 

I imagine the 296 production will be at least 5 years, no limits on production, and, per Ferrari, not a replacement for the F8 or any V8 model. If the 296 suffers from battery/EV related issues, expect F8 prices to go even higher.

 

It’s dealer dependent. If your a new customer most dealers will make you sign 12 month agreements. Sometimes it 3 or 6 months. If you have bought numerous cars they may not make you sign anything. However, there are Lots of ways around it. For example, some people buy it under a LLC and you can sell the LLC that technically owns the car. Therefore you are not violating any agreements. You will see lots of Montana LLC to save the sales tax and easy to transfer the LLC

 

there's not been a single car ever where that paperwork has actually resulted in a car not coming to the aftermarket

as said before I don't think the premium will be that high for early cars simply because to get an early car it has to typically be spec'd to a high price and the car is already quite expensive

 

yep, I fully understand your motivation for this. I actually hate ordering new cars and rarely do it because I despise waiting years for them - sometimes by the time there is already something else on my mind or a different car i'd prefer etc

 

The problem I'm having these days is the new model introductions that occur before my car is even built! It's crazy to have buyer's remorse before your car is delivered.....

 

Assuming real-world inflation is already 20% (compare your cost of everything today vs this time last year..) $450k for a 296 (especially GTS) is reasonable. Wait for the OEMs to start raising their prices once the world settles into the fact that this inflation is really prices resetting to the new normal.

 

I am going keep the GTB until the GTS lands. So really I'm praying for values to hold until '24...

 

My target for my GTB will be under 400K, or even around 375K. I might go crazy with GTS, but certainly not for GTB. I expect high percentage of the GTBs will be around 400K. I'm with ryalex.

 

The STO isn't a limited edition car. In fact, you can order one at your local dealership now.

STO asking prices are below 500K all day long. Good job selling yours for 525K.

 

not to sound like a snob, but the Ferrari market is significantly different vs every other car company. Normal supply/ demand rules don't apply. Most REAL 296 buyers wouldn't consider anything other than a 296 and will take what they can get and pay what they are told. A Lambo, Mclaren buyer is cross shopping looking for deals. Porsche GT buyers are the closest behaviorally to Ferrari buyers.

 

crazy times with inflation. It's nearly impossible to recalibrate mentally and emotionally to the fact that these newly inflated prices are going to continue to inflate even more AND stay there. No deflation. No housing crash.

Walmart is reducing inventory from shelves vs lowering prices. Why discount a can of Tuna when the wholesale cost is the retail cost in 6 months. All of us should be buying and storing the staples. Buy toilet paper now, store it and you basically make money because you are paying less today than what it will cost 30 days from now. All new cars (normal cars...) are selling for OVER MSRP. I read that a Kia is now selling for 6% over MSRP. That means that the MSRP is going to increase. This inflation cycle isnt ending soon. Last time the country was experiencing inflation was similar was 1971-1981. 10 Years. What do you think the real inflation rate is now? Check your monthly normal cost of living expenses and compare to a year ago. Real world inflation is around 20%.

If things get really knarly and rates have to be increased to match the rate of inflation (what Volker did in 81) we will see Mortgage rates around 20%. That will change peoples behavior. We are a loooong way from that. If the rates do increase that dramatically I have 2 words for you: Treasury Bonds. Current yields are around 3%....wanna bet they double if not triple in the next 12 months or less?

 

You’ve got to consider how little sticker impacts the resell market. So will a $350k 296 go for $450? I think so. Hell I’d pay $450 to get it today. Will a $450k sticker car go for $550k? Personally I highly doubt it. Sure a few will. But in general I agree you’re thinking prevails. I’d prefer a Pista or a 765lt (def not an STO) at those prices. People will pay for the base car. They won’t overpay for your options. And if those options psychologically take that price point far above what they see the base car valued at then the high end resell cars will sit.

AF package and stripes may be the exception. Those are big noticeable changes. If someone’s looking for an AF car, they know where that base really starts at. Paint carbon and options, not so much.

 

Most of the run-up is CPI (cost-push inflation), oil prices, affects almost everything (i.e. transport, cost of plastics, etc) and it has dropped 20%+ in past few weeks, if oil was at $50BBL do you believe we would have as much 'inflation', I don't. I think the fed is making things much worse especially for weaker economies with its pushing up the cost of paper, no point in it at all. If the oil markets were more confident of US production (i.e. no interference on pipelines, lease permits, etc) prices would drop quite a bit and so would CPI, etc...a lot of this is being forced by a concerted effort to do exactly what is occurring now, not at all like 71-81 when so many other issues occurring.

 

I think it depends a bit. My 812 GTS and Roma were moderate spec (but no carbon) and I got both very early cycle. They weren’t base for sure but not loaded…however, I have a pretty good history so I think it was a balance of the two at my dealer.