Crisis hitting Vintage market? All signs are there

I've been following the "poor man's vintage market" (100 - 250k Euro) with interest for a while now, with a particular penchant for the Berlinetta Boxer and 330 GTC models. I'm hoping, if all goes well, to be in a buying position later this year - in about three or four months time. Recently, an interesting phenomenon has crept up.

In the past 12 months, I've seen more and more cars that just sit for months. Several cars I've been interested in have been up for sale for more than 6 months, some even for more than a year. But asking prices have not come down. Until now, that is.

A 330GTC for sale in Europe has been offered at 210k Euro, then 189k, and this week it was listed for 175k. It is the first time in a long time where the tide definitely seems have turned in favour of the buyer. I predict that we will be in for a roller coaster ride of a summer this year, with quite a devastation in vintage Ferrari prices.

The Boxer and GTC represent a buffer between modern and classical Ferraris and they sit between the affordable (3x8 and so on) and the big hitters (Daytona and up). In the past two years, this segment has seen a tremendous climb in value, but this curve was following the all-time classics. It seems that when the time comes for the crunch, they are also the first to really go down in value. They could therefore be thought of as a barometer for the classic Ferrari market.

What are your thoughts? I'm thinking people that want to buy should be in a great position come mid- to late summer. And I think this crisis will (initially slowly) start to spill upwards as well, affecting Daytona and Lusso prices. At the moment those prices have stagnated with cars sitting for a long time, but in a couple of months time I think they will come down significantly. Do you agree?


Onno

 

A very nice, but not great, 330GTC just left Germany destined for a UK dealer and it was priced close enough to EUR200,000. That sounds strong enough to me. Perhaps the GTC you refer to had problems ? People need to realise that these cars should reflect condition and deferred maintenance. That alone should easily be reflected in a price variation of EUR50,000. I think the problem is when one person sees a car for a particular (i.e. High )price for someone elses car they perceive theirs is worth same, even if its a lesser car. The buyers aren't fools and a car that sits for months has some issues, one that sells instantly is priced right.

But don't ask us to predict the market, thats impossible gambling !!

 

The 330 I was referring to was just an example for a bigger picture - I'm not drawing my conclusions on the basis of 1 car (which you could have read in my post). The fact that several of these cars (and Daytona's and BB's etc) have been on the market for 12 months or more, with particularly high priced cars (i.e. pristine) taking very long to sell seems to indicate to me something is going on here. In a bull market pristine cars sell quickly as there will always be a buyer who is looking for the best example.

OK, so you're not agreeing yet. Let's see what happens.

Predicting the car market is not SO difficult on the short term, BTW. Just follow the market and see where the trend goes. The trend at the moment is certainly NOT up, like it was 6 months ago.


Onno

 

Classic Ferrari prices are a lagging indicator of economic health. There is a bank solvency crisis in the US of very large proportions. Things went sideways last Aug. and things will get much worse in the next 6 months. It will take about 3 years for a recovery IHO.

Demographics have a play as well. When I go to events such as Radnor,Cavilino or Amelia Island I see very few guys in thier 40's or 50's. Most of the guys with these cars are in thier 60's They are at the top of thier game earning wise many having sold thier businesses. With a large number of these folks buying prices have gone higher. With the baby boomers getting older in the next few years there may be less of a demand for these cars. Guys my age (40-50) that I know do not seem to be as interested in classics with the exception of the Countach. They have the money but not the desire to buy. The 330 GTC or the 275 GTB do not mean anything to them.

Talking to friends who are high end brokers and sho I have known for 30 years say things are realy slowing down in the middle of the market. The market is tough now for newer exotics as well as the home equity loan market has dried up. I think we are going to see some price declines and some good cars come on the market. The very high end will not be affected as much due to the limited number of cars( 26 GTO's for example)

My garage is empty at the moment as I do not see getting a car at these prices as a good value (Fun/Dollar) for me personaly. I missed on some great cars in the last 5 years ( Talbot Lago 150C, Maserati A6GCS Zagoto, Siata 208S) that I should have bought. But I am now priced out of that market. I still love the cars and had some great cars over the years but looking to build something fun rather than drive a classic. Maybe when I am 60 and sell my businesses I will be back. LOL

 

There will be a 330 GTC at the Worldwide auction at Keels and Wheels in May. The reserve is market based (in US dollars!).

Dale

 

pls see my posts on this thread...
http://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/showthread.php?p=137390260#post137390260

Anyhow you look at it the market is coming apart in some corners and is still - very surprising - holding up ok in others. For example, in this year's RM Amelia auction the American cars (Dusenberg and Cord notwithstanding) felt like the floor just dropped, on the other hand the European bid for interesting euro cars was still strong, so there you have it.

My prediction from 9 months and 3 months ago still stand. more pain to come and Vintage cars (yes even Ferraris' ) will see a their price drop.
I wish I could be more optimistic but from where I sit it looks ugly, very ugly….

 

Onno - If you're talking about MY GTC, then no, the prices are still climbing.
If you're referring to all the others on the market, then maybe yes....;--)

Seriously, in my mind, I've already decided that the 'bubble has burst'. Fortunately, it makes no difference, as my car is a long-term keeper. For others, who may be tired/bored/or selling of necessity theirs, the near future will be challenging (in the states anyway). For the cars you have in mind, I think you're heading into a buyers market, as opposed to the last 4 (?) years of sellers market.

Good hunting! For me, the combination of 330 GTC and 550 Maranello is an excellent "poor man's" Ferrari collection.

Tritone

 

I think the effects will be less in the vintage Ferrari market than you might think. I think average cars may be affected a bit, but I think the main impact will be that the sales cycle will lengthen. The holding cost of a vintage Ferrari is pretty low, and thus there is not much pressure to sell quickly for most people.

I just don't think a lot of vintage Ferraris were purchased on credit, or through HELOCs, and it doesn't seem like a lot of them were purchased by speculators.

Do you really think Daytonas and Lussos are going back to $125k? I hope so, as I'd like to pick up a Lusso in that price range!

 

Another point: with the USD/Euro rate at all time lows (or highs depending which way you look at it), European buyers just got anther 20% drop in prices in just the last few weeks.

A correction is coming but how big and for how long remains to be seen! Of course, you hadn't heard that before.

 

Do you really think Daytonas and Lussos are going back to $125k? I hope so, as I'd like to pick up a Lusso in that price range!

I'll be right behind you.......

 

Owners of vintage Ferrari's wish they go up, and future owners hope for the crash. But most cars are paid without loans and we are all boys with toys, and the toys are not made anymore.....(well the nice one's). The dollar is of course a very important factor and there will be quite some containers shipped with US vintage Ferrari's back to Europe (and China??). Sorry to say that collecting them gets pretty expensive overthere....But I am positive about the value of these cars. So few interesting cars and so many boys....

ciao
Oscar

 

the old equation remains - Finite resource + no stories + excellent condition = strong price

and with increased global wealth and emergent markets this won't change anytime soon.

 

Do you really think Daytonas and Lussos are going back to $125k? I hope so, as I'd like to pick up a Lusso in that price range!

I'll be right behind you.......

I sold my Lusso in 89 before the crash for $180,000 bought it in 83 for $23,000 ( Put a lot of work into it). It sold several times in the 90's for $87,000, $98,000 and last sale I was told in 96 for $125,000. Now its a $350,000 car but it may come down to $180,000 in the next few years Who knows?

 

Poppycock!
Lets make an analogy to extant Picasso or Manet, or Monet paintings. Unless the art market is exposed as fraud, or a new cache of one of the above is found you must belivieve that the number of collectors way outnumbers the number of serious bidders that will outstrip them. Therefore no market crash.
As a second argument your wishful thinking specifically Ferrari prices tanking is unfounded. This argument seems to reflect the circus of the auction events on television which is more about some very small minority of "collectors" whose vanity has lead them astray in front of the TV cameras. Yes, American "Yank-Tank" collector cars have flatlined. Let's examine why... Except for some ultra-rarified and highly provenanced race cars and show cars there were just too many of them made. A Jaguar E-Type is a familiar analogy. They made seventy-plus thousand of all the series 1-3. Is it a beautiful and desirable car... absolutely yes, but not all that rare?
Yank Tank cars were made in such numbers and unless you're talking about COPO Cameros or some other Corporate breed one-offs one must absolutely realize that these cars were made by committees backed by fleets of company-car driving accountants. Not in any way the fermented ideas of one driving man of vision. Therefore it was designed for a market demographic and any "passion" was sown with a very broad swathe. The Pony Car Era took Detroit from behind.
In my state, Florida, just about everyone I know who is successful except me, has a Harley Davidson. When eveyone has a Harley, is it cool anymore? Does your specific custom package make you stand out? I can't answer that.
Point is... Enzo Ferrari and Sir David Brown will stand out as luminaries for years if not centuries.
Linking Ferrari Cars to the market for American Muscle Cars is vapid at best. Passion for aquisition has oustripped common sense or research. That bubble has burst indeed as well as the Hotrod Market.
Ferrari cars were meant to be driven by persons who either had the talents to drive them at their potential, or who wished to aquire those talents, or at best emulate them. With certain exceptions, they were not meant to be driven to get groceries on the way to soccer practice.
If one thinks that the current owners are going to cough them up for that Viagra prescription, then one should take a second look at who Ferrari owners are and what they have desired since they were small children.

 

Zora Duntov, Bill Mitchell, and Larry Shinoda had no vision or passion????????

 

i'm with you on that one arlie. the passion thing gets a little old.

 

Man! I got cash, I hope we have a crisis!

 

There are a lot of us who'd love to as well. The thing is what will the economic world look like that results in such values? I doubt that everyone who can afford 125k for that kind of purchase today would then.

 

The earliest indicator of a market ready to crash is a wide circle of owners of anything constantly telling one another how their purchases are never going to drop.

 

Michael, I like that one

Regards,

Art S.

 

Hey babe, money talks. BS walks.

We'll see, huh?

Dale

 

Many years ago I was tought the 50 example rule. If there were more than 50 examples of a car made the potential for 5 or 6 of them being for sale at the same time was fairly strong and thereby weakening the market for that model of car. I believe many long time owners "test" the market with a "if it sells, great" philosiphy.
Most of all I hate thinking of Ferraris as comodities or objects of art.

 

I hope my 275gtb drops to half it value so I don't have to worry so much about it when I drive it.

 

Could be a new Escalade'll be 250K in the next few ...

 

I have owned classic sports cars since college (late 70's) when I drove a Austin Healy everyday. I have never regretted buying a classic sports car that I could drive and enjoy.
I can not say the same for some stocks I have owned. As people get hammered on Wall Street by the wizards of paper investments, and inflation soars, capital will go into tangible investments. It always reassuring to know where your money is in times like this. If it is in something you can enjoy so much the better.
Aloha,
Mark