Will History Repeat Itself?

I am not sure how many readers of this forum ever pop over to the Challenge forum? And I though that this thread might be of interest to those here that hadn't seen it, given it relates to a road-registered 458: https://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/threads/458c-road-going-conversion.705767/
Personally I cannot understand why people haven't yet switched onto how amazing and unique a road registered Challenge car is!

According to this thread https://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/threads/458-speciale-coupe-production-numbers.610577/ Ferrari built somewhere between 1,800 and 2,500 of the 458 Speciale, but just 150 of the 458 Challenge were made. In addition, whist the vast majority of the Speciale survive, I would imagine that quite a few Challenges have been written off. But even ignoring survival rate and using production numbers, the Challenge is between 12x and 17x rarer than a Speciale.

Also, the Speciale was supposed to be a "more" raw and racy version of the "standard" 458, for those that craved purer driving dynamics and performance. But why settle for just "more", when one might get a road-going Challenge which is a proper race car - the "real deal"?

I would proposed that we have actually seen this before. At one point, 1960's Ferrari Sports Racers were very undervalued relative to their road going compatriots and their long-term desirability and values. This thread shows exactly that: https://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/threads/help-need-old-ferrari-selling-prices-from-the-past.216816/

I have compiled a few adverts from 1971 and 1973 shown in this thread to demonstrate this, and this is what it looks like:

SPORTS RACERS
Ferrari 250LM in 1971: $12,000 (post $124) - value today: $36M (appreciation of 300,000%)
Ferrari 250GTO in 1971: $9,990 (post #124) - value today: $70M (appreciation of 707,000%)
Ferrari 375MM Roadster in 1971: $8,500 (post #119) - value today $9M (appreciation of 106,000%)
Ferrari 250/P4 in 1971: $14,250 (post #89) - value today $40M (appreciation of 280,000%)
Ferrari 250GTO in 1971: $12,000 - value today: $36M (appreciation of 300,000%)
Ferrari 250GTO in 1973: $5,800 to $8,500 (post #7) - value today: $36M (appreciation of 425,000%)
Ferrari 250GT SWB Berlinetta in1973: $6,750 (post #3) - value today: $18M (appreciation of 266,000%)
Ferrari 166 MM in 1973: $8,500 (post #63) - value today: $10M (appreciation of 118,000%)
Ferrari 250 SWB Berlinetta in1973: $6,750 (post #63) - value today: $18M (appreciation of 266,000%)

ROAD CARS
Ferrari 250 Lusso in 1971: $5,250 (post #77) - value today $2.5M (appreciation of 47,000%)
Ferrari 275GTB/4 in 1971: $8.950 (post #77) - value today $3.0M (appreciation of 34,000%)
Ferrari 275GTS in 1973: $7,250 (post #3) - value today $2M (appreciation of 27,000%)
Ferrari 330GTS in 1974: $12,000 (post #16) - value today $2.5M (appreciation of 21,000%)
Ferrari 250 GTE 2+2 in 1973: $7,500 (post #28) - value today 0.5M (appreciation of 6,700%)
Ferrari 250GT PF Cabrio Series II in 1973: $6,900 (post #28) - value today $2.0M (appreciation of 29.000%)
Ferrari 250GT PF Coupe in 1973: $7,000 (post #28) - value today $0.5M (appreciation of 7.200%)
Ferrari 330GTC in 1973: $9,500 (post #28) - value today $1.0M (appreciation of 10,000%)

So from this historic snap-shot we could conclude that:
1) The Ferrari Sports Racers appreciated by an average of 307,000%, whilst the Road Cars appreciated by an average of 23,000%
2) So the race versions (most of which can also be driven on the road) became over 13x more valuable (and hence SIGNIFICANTLY more desirable) than their road-going counterparts

[I know that adding in a 250 California would boost the appreciation of the Road Cars group, but I didn't happen across a 1971/3 advert for one, and even adding-in this data-point wouldn't change these conclusions]

Now I am not claiming that a 458 Challenge is the modern day equivalent of the 250GTO, but similarly I personally don't believe a 458 Italia is the equivalent to a 250 Lusso, nor 275 GTB/4.

But history does repeat itself generally!

So what I am hypothesizing is that over time the Ferrari Challenge cars will become more desirable than their road going equivalents, especially as:
1) this era of race cars is likely become the mainstay of "historic racing" over the next number of decades, because later cars are too complex and this is the era of cars that guys now in their 40's to 60's aspire to own
2) Challenge cars will start to be increasingly recognized as one of Ferrari's "ultimate" "affordable" performance road-vehicles (after road conversion) that are still analogue in nature and pure IC-based

A few random thoughts to throw into the mix:
1) The 458 Challenge's Fiorano lap time is just 1'16.5" whilst the FXX is 1'18.0", an Enzo 1'22.3" and the 458 Speciale was 1'23.5" (and if anyone has tracked/raced, you know how much slower a full 7 seconds is)
2) The 458 Challenge weighs 1,220kg, and the 458 Speciale weighs in at a porky 1,668kg (https://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/threads/458-speciale-corner-weight.459273/)

So that makes me ponder:
1) if people bought a 458 Speciale because of its driving dynamics, performance, etc. why would they do that if a road-going 458 Challenge is 7 second faster around Fiorano and 448kg lighter?
2) if people bought a 458 Speciale because it was "rare" and "unique", why would they do that when between 1,800 and 2,500 were sold, when just 150 458 Challenges were made?
3) why spend over $1.0M on a Speciale, when a 458 Challenge can be bought for $200k (at the moment, this might change!) and with a bit of effort and ingenuity can be road-registered?
4) based on history repeating itself, with Ferrari race-variants becoming more valuable than their road-equivalents, are 458 Challenges going to catch-up (and pass) the value of Speciales over the coming decades as the rarity and driving thrill of the Challenge over the Speciale sink in?

Some of you might claim that Challenge cars are too harsh to drive on the road. But I believe that it is this pure-driving experience that the rest of us seek - those of us who are more interested in driving dynamics and performance than Bluetooth interconnectivity and the quest for refinement that has sapped the soul of supercars over the last few decades...

In closing I would like to say:
1) I'm not trying to diss the 458 Speciale, nor their owners, rather I'm singing the relative praises of the 458 Challenge and hypothesizing that history will repeat
2) I do own a 458 Challenge that is road registered (as well as a 360CH and 430CH that are also road registered), as well as a Dino 246GT, 330GT, 206SP (which I wish I had bought in 1973!!), 550 Maranello, 50's Alfas, etc. Plus I have also raced historic single seaters for decades around the world, right across Europe to Australia, Canada, NZ to the USA and RSA, etc. and hence I have a little understanding of "spirited driving" in a wide range of road and race vehicles
3) I have no intension of selling any of my cars (especially my road-registered Challenge cars) ever, so I don't care whether their values rise or fall
4) The above is written purely for my personal interest and to spark discussion with like minded members who also like to think and hypothesis a bit....

 

Everyone like a photo, so here are the Terrific Triplets together - the road registered F360CH, F430CH and F458CH all keeping each other company hoping to be let out and tear up the local twisties!
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I think if Ferrari officially made road legal 458 challenges etc then they'd be worth a ton of money but the market doesn't really care largely about how a car drives

 

Fantastic right up! It does make some sense what you say, though I'm not as knowledgeable about the older era cars.

I'm not sure how easy it is to turn a challenge car into a streetable car in the US. Maybe someone that has done it could comment.

 

You're comparing actual race cars that raced in actual race series for what are considered important events to a series designed for dealership customers to race against one another. That's apples and oranges. There is a reason why a race winning 458 GT2 is worth 7 figures and a Challenge car that won a track day is low 6 figures. Also, converting a Le Mans winning 458 GT2 for street use would damage its value.

 

I agree, the average guy/girl doesn't really care too much about how a car drives. However, virtually everyone is attracted to rarity and having something their neighbours don't have.

I also think for a sector of car-enthusiasts (more so in those driving "high-performance" cars), they certainly do care about how a car drives and performs, which is evident on here with posts about how to improve that performance, the relative performance across different models of Ferrari's, etc. For example, the 458's so-called "lack of torque" relative to the 488/F8 is raised over and over again.

Your comment of "if Ferrari officially made road-legal F458 Challenge" is interesting and had me pondering.

I agree that modifying a Ferrari often reduces its value (restomod sector seemingly apart). Also recreating a "homemade" version of 458 Speciale from a 458 Italia will never be as valuable as a genuine 458 Speciale, even if the finished product uses 100% original Ferrari parts and every little detail that differentiates a real Speciale from an Italia is replicated.

Given enough money and effort, a 458 Challenge (or any Challenge car) can be road registered with minimal modifications - and certainly none of which are permanent, nor dilute the superior driving dynamics and performance of a Challenge over a Speciale.

Look at this thread (https://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/threads/458c-road-going-conversion.705767/) which shows that this particular 458 Challenge has been road registered with essentially no modifications to speak of, apart from swapping out the rear Speciale calipers for those of a 488, which can be replaced very simply. My road registered 458 Challenge is similarly original.

In the long run, I don't think it matters whether it was a Ferrari dealer that handled the first registration, or not. Rather it just matters if the car can be legally driven on the road. Afterall, the 250GTO, 250LM, 206SP, etc. were never supplied by Ferrari to be used on the road (apart from racing over road-courses like the MM or Targe Florio). But the fact that these vehicles can be driven on the road (and can take a passenger) is why they are much more valuable than Ferrari single seaters from the same period, even though far far fewer single seaters were produced.

There are also cases of unregistered cars and motorbikes being unearthed and these always sell at a significant premium, despite never have being registered through the original manufacturer/dealer process.

 

I don't believe I'm comparing "apples and oranges" and I never claimed a Challenge car is anything like a GT2 - in provenance, value, nor anything else. The comparisons were limited to the 458 Challenge versus the 458 Speciale.

My observations were that:
1) The 458 Challenge is significantly rarer (13x to 17x fewer built) and provides significantly better performance (7 seconds faster around Fiorano) and has better driving dynamics (488kg lighter) than a 458 Speciale.
2) 1960's sports racers (with or without race history) have increased in value significantly more than their roadgoing counterparts (13x more). And yes, a 250 SWB with Le Mans history is more desirable than a 250SWB with no race history at all (and a number of 250SWB's were never raced in period). But even those 250 SWB without any period race history are still massively desirable and have appreciated over the last decades many times more that their road-cars equivalents like a 250 Lusso, or 250 GTE.

My hypothesis was that history repeats, and hence:
In the same way that the rarity and performance/driving dynamics of a 250 SWB (which was not recognized when they were "just old race cars") make the 250 SWB much more desirable (and valuable) than a 250 GTE - that similarly the greater rarity and superior performance/driving dynamics of a road-going 458 Challenge over a 458 Speciale, will in the long-run make a road-going 458 Challenge more desirable (and hence more valuable) than a 458 Speciale.

 

There is a write-up here: https://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/threads/458c-road-going-conversion.705767/

You are right though, that depending where one is in the world, that the process of converting a 458 Challenge to road-legal will take effort and money. But it certainly can be done. My Challenge cars are registered in the UK, there are road-registered Challenge cars across the US, in Germany, Japan, etc.

There is a company in the UK that converts McLaren P1 GTR's into a road-registered vehicles for a few hundred thousand dollars. These have then been exported around the world and if the P1 GTR can be made road legal for most countries, a Challenge car certainly can: https://www.evo.co.uk/mclaren/mclaren-p1-gtr

 

Interestingly, it seems that Ferrari has also converted the "race-track only" FXX to road-legal for a "special" customer:
https://www.knight.international/post/street-legal-ferrari-fxx-k-evo
https://www.carthrottle.com/news/worlds-only-road-legal-ferrari-fxx-sale

This road-registered FXX is much more valuable than the track-only version, showing that road registering doesn't devalue a car at all, instead it adds value. Also, I would be pretty confident that this road-legal FXX is significantly more desirable and valuable than its road-going counterpart the La Ferrari.

I think this is a good parallel for the 250 SWB versus 250 GTE and road-legal 458 Challenge versus 458 Speciale hypothesis I raised....

 

I've driven 458 Challenge off pista. It's too raw. Very rough ride on our awful pavement in US. Even on 72 degree day the cabin was very hot. The noise is extreme - starts out fun, but after 10-15 minutes, too much. 250 GTO/SWB not nearly as raw as 458 Challenge, and better crossover between track and public roads. If it's a wonderful crossover 458 you seek, the Speciale is the answer. Perfect blend of compromises that make it just as suitable for roads as track. More powerful than Challenge car, with sufficient creature comforts that make it enjoyable for more than 10-15 minutes at a time. And way more GTO/SWB than GTE.

 

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No

 

I'd rather have an SP3

 

Why, on what grounds?

My road-registered 458 Challenge is faster and a lot more dynamic to drive and a lot rarer than an SP3!

Fiorano lap times: 1'16.5" (458 Challenge) versus 1'21.5" (SP3) - the 458 Challenge is a full 5 seconds faster
Weight: 1,220kg (458 Challenge) versus 1,485kg (SP3) - the 458 Challenge is 285kg lighter
Rarity: 150 built (458 Challenge) versus 599 (SP3) - the 458 Challenge is 4x rarer (even without taking into account all the 458 Challenges that have been written off)

Surely how cars perform (Fiorano lap time), how dynamic to drive (lightness), coupled to their relative rarity (numbers built) will drive long term values?

The SP3 is currently has a $2.2m list price, with supposedly examples are trading for double that. So given the fact that a road-going 458 Challenge is superior on virtually all metrics, is the SP3 massively overvalued, or the 458 Challenge massively undervalued?

History shows that we saw the same in the early 1970's when Ferrari sports-racers (GTO, SWB, etc.) were also undervalued...

But I like the fact that you are seeing a road-registered 458 Challenge in the same light as one of Ferraris hypercars - because actually its only the hypercars that can compete with it!



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Stunning picture of the 458 Speciale that you posted, I do love NART stripes on red!!!

I don't know if you have driven a GTO or a SWB? I have been lucky enough to drive a friend's SWB a number of times (see pics of the car in my driveway) and I can assure you it is a lot more raw in many respects than my road-registered 458 Challenge!!!

Now, onto your 458 Challenge driving experiences:

I know many/most of the owners with road-going Challenge cars in the USA as there aren't many around and I wasn't aware of one out near you in Illinois. I checked quickly overnight with the guys I know in the US who have road-registered 458 Challenges, and none of them seemed to know you. So who's was it?

Some of your observations of your personal 458 Challenge driving experiences are a little "odd"!

The 458 Challenge was fitted with air-conditioning, to try and keep people cool whilst racing, when they are wearing 3 layer Nomex race suits with long-john Nomex underwear and a full face helmet with a balaclava . So I am not sure why the cabin was "very hot", especially on a 72deg. day whilst cruising around on public roads?

And why was the noise extreme? Most stock 458 Challenges make around 105-107dB (https://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/threads/458-challenge-sound-reduction.643509/). But many guys with 458 Italia/Speciales fit aftermarket exhausts that exceed this, with the pretty common Capristo coming in at 108dB (https://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/threads/decibel-db-levels-for-458-speciale.564144/). And you can see from the first link, that guys who track their 458 Challenges normally have to reduce noise levels a bit from standard to meet noise limits at tracks. So its not rocket-science to fit a quieter exhaust if one wants. But, my 458 Challenge makes a wonderful sound which for me is not too loud - and which from casual observation is about the same as a 458 with a Capristo.

Finally, for me (you might be different) a 458 Speciale is not "a wonderful cross-over", its for me, its basically the same as a 458 Italia, where my road-going 458 Challenge is at another level.

But don't rely on my experiences, look at the numbers:
WEIGHT: The 458 Speciale is just 90kg lighter than an Italia (https://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/threads/weight-reduction-for-458-speciale.438066/), but the 458 Challenge is another 488kg lighter than the Speciale!
POWER/WEIGHT: Yes, the Speciale has 30HP more than the 458 Challenge and Italia, but that metric alone is irrelevant and its power to weight ratio that matters. The Italia has 319HP/1000kg, the Speciale has 354HP/1000kg and the 458 Challenge 460HP/1000kg!
FIORANO LAP TIME: Its the above power to weight ratios are what really drives lap time, which is why the Italia goes around in Fiorano in 1'25.0" and despite all its hype, the Speciale is just 1.5 seconds faster at 1"23.5", whist the 458 Challenge is 7,0 seconds faster than the Speciale and 8.5 seconds faster than the Italia at 1'16.5".

So no, the Speciale is not "way more GTO/SWB than GTE"!!!

If you are brave enough to directly compare the 458 family to the 250 family, then I would propose that if the 458 Italia is the GTE (both were the base models with "many" made), then the Speciale would be the Lusso (both were bit rarer, a bit prettier with a bit more power than the GTE/Italia, but more similar than not), with the road-going 458 Challenge being the GTO/SWB (significantly more rare and totally different beast performance and driving dynamics wise).
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Because I like the SP3 better.

It looks better. Sounds better, too.

 

I've driven 250 SWB, ridden in 250 GTO, both more comfortable than non road-registered 458C I drove in TX.

 

I am amazed how civilized and comfortable the 250 SWB is, what a car.

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One big difference is that the 250 GT / 250 GTO were road legal, which the newest Challenge cars are not. Making them road legal could be very challenging, depending on local regulations.
So when looking at road / GT race cars from the '60s (all being road legal), the race cars were rarer, which to some extent justify the appreciation (although a road 250 GT California is not really cheap either...)
If one shifts to today, the road cars are road cars, while the race cars are strictly limited to track use - and if they are made road legal, they lose their authenticity (which is usually detrimental to value).
Regarding the track performance, I wonder what would be the lap times of a 458 Challenge on road tires (after all, if it's road legal, it must run on road tires).
Personally, what I would like would be Ferrari making its VS more really track oriented, rather than focussing on exclusivity; I'm not sure how road legal conversions of race cars are a satisfactory workaround.

 

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I'd rather leave 458C as-is, for dedicated track use, and drive 458S on road. Each built for a specific purpose, and each magnificent at it's application. As you say, putting 458C on road tires and modifying to make street-legal is like castrating it. But to each his own.