is the bubble due to burst?

Just trading RIG & F ISV have been good trades. 15 - 30% in a month. Way better than cars and completely liquid. I don't invest in cars, I love cars for the thrill of driving them. Have been luck to have owned a few nice ones, but as for an investment, they have not been great.

 

Agreed......


but Roubini has turned relatively bullish in early 2014
Nouriel Roubini Turns Bullish - Business Insider
The Great Obama Bull Market will roar till 2016 - MarketWatch


Then in his late 2014 update, he says the "mother of all crashes will happen in 2016
Roubini The Mother Of All Asset Bubbles Will Burst In 2016 - Business Insider

Then for his 2015 forecast has no mention of crashes...

Like I said, I'm not a fan Roubini....

He's a master showman, perfected the "heads I win, tails you lose" paradigm when it comes to predictions and self-promotion...many people love him though and he's done better than me... so in the end I can shut up.

In the end the only thing I know for certain nobody can time the market consistently.
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For the record the bubble on the newer high production cars did not start to take off until the end of 13. That's when the pigs piled in. The Dinos and the vintage cars took off well before then and began the "trend". The main people driving these prices up (the guys who can't afford to play in the big leagues with the multi-million dollar cars) did not get into the game heavy until toward the end of 13. So the main speculative bubble has been going on for almost two years, not many years.

And the guys with the deep pockets started bidding up the Dinos and the the vintage cars were the first. They saw the art market go nuclear and saw another opportunity on the horizon.

 

Paul, glad we are agreeing on some elements.

Note that the articles cited consistently have Roubini conceding a bull market run and then a collapse (he always kept the collapse part).

Some of these perma bears came out of hibernation to concede the timing of runs can last longer than they anticipate. But they really aren't changing their overall tune.

It is a bit of the "heads/tails" hedging you describe, but not entirely.

Either way, I was quite bullish when these guys were still bearish and don't hold their views as anything near gospel, but Roubini did get the structural issues right, which matters.

If I ever look to authority figures, the only one I have consistently viewed with interest is Buffett. He holds the long course, but even he gets things wrong. He will concede when he is wrong and areas outside his expertise, which I admire.

 

Thanks John.

 

Received via email today.......
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+1

 

I'll be there. It will be a good sale, I'm sure. I have known the Kenos for a while and Bradley Farrell for many years.

 

Have you received your info yet? A friend signed up and has not heard from them.

There was an RM sale scheduled for around the same time time and it has moved to December- the NYC auction last year which sold 250 lm and xke for 450K.

 

The RM sale is moved to the 10th. I can't make that, although I would love to. I've bought several cars from RM over the years and I know that it will be good. However, NYC is pretty far from me and December is a busy time. The Keno Brothers sale has some cars right in my wheel house.

I haven't gotten anything in the mail yet but I have received a lot of correspondence and all of the auction info via email and talked to people about certain cars.

They are doing enough things differently that I think it's going to be especially interesting. Not the same old cars and not the same old process. I also like the events they have surrounding the sale.

Now, if I were able to make it to the RM sale, it's two days after the Victoria's Secret runway show and I would definitely have to find a way to incorporate that into the trip.

 

The Keno brother's dad once owned the Mussolini Touring bodied Alfa Romeo 6C2500 in which Mussolini was captured trying flee to Switzerland.

 

Their rather vain publicity in the UK mags is certainly different but not sure it hits the right note though.......

 

I haven't seen any of their advertising, here or abroad. Regardless, they have a nice selection of cars and it looks to be worth the trip. Especially if I come home with something.

 

VS model?

 

My package came in the mail. V
It's a very nice presentation and package.

 

Hopefully the printed photos look better than the ones on their website. All the studio shots look really washed out. Compare the outside shots of the street Daytona with the studio ones it looks like a different shade of red.

Fine Automobile Auctions - Keno Brothers

 

beautiful daytona

 

To be honest, I don't really pay much attention to the coloring of the photos. I usually use the photos just to see if anything looks abnormal. It's how the car looks in real life that counts for me. I've never bid on a car at auction without looking at it in real life.

 

i dont think car prices drop as fast as they rise

 

au contrae, in the last big down turn 90/91 prices dropped twice as fast as they had risen,

 

I disagree with all of the contrarians for several reasons, many of which have been cited previously: 1. New staggering wealth in many parts of the World (besides the USA, Europe, etc.) from Russia to China/Far East to the Middle East to Central/South America and 2. Systemic cultural shift in those who are coming into their own now (ie. those primarily in the age 30-60 age group) who'd rather purchase a 599 GTO than a painting or statute or coin or baseball card, etc.

I'm 52 and had a poster of a 365BB on my wall growing up. My brother (age 51) had a poster of a Countach. Is it any surprise that when we could afford to buy our "dream/fantasy" it would be a sports car rather than a Picasso or another piece of artwork ? Of course not. Plain truth is that there are thousands (not hundreds) of people like me who came of age dreaming of the 12 cylinder banshee whine of a Ferrari at full song and when we could acquire our dream/fantasy it was acquired. My parents generation (let alone my grandparents) would have said buy the Picasso or buy IBM or GM stock, etc. While I of course own stock and RE I never for a split second thought I should buy my fantasy car as it was a piece of a portfolio. As I have evolved (and so purchased nicer sports cars) I do realize that a sports car can also be an investment. When I traded in my 458 Italia for a 599 GTO last year I felt like I had acquired my fantasy/dream car albeit on a modern/current platform. If the GTO rose in value it was sincerely an afterthought as I just felt privileged to be driving what I think is the best drivers car ever produced from Maranello. I love my GTO and am thankful every day that I have the privilege I owning her.

Bottom line is that there really are many many more people around the world who can afford a new/used F car than a generation ago (let alone 2 generations ago) and who really truly want one. Again, its no surprise that new F car dealerships have opened in places where a generation or two ago many thought these Countries were the "Evil Empire" (ie. communist etc.). Most want an F car because, like me and most people here, it was their fantasy/dream. Some buy an F car for an investment. IMHO not every F car acquisition needs to devolve into a balance sheet analysis. Hopefully there are enough of us left who can admire, appreciate and respect the staggering monumental legacy left by Enzo Ferrari and his progeny. I think/hope that there are and with that said the brand will live on as the marque we know and love.

 

Citing "new" reasons in support of prices when bubbles happen is the #1 indicator that a bubble exists and will pop.


1.) China's wealth trajectory has never been worse (in modern times) and we can question whether many of the millionaires / billionaires (on paper) there will still have even 50% of their wealth in the coming couple of years

2.) Most the world's wealth is still in the developed countries and growth there (productivity or true wealth growth) has been very slow

3.) Russia's wealth has been under massive pressure, as has wealth in middle east and the biggest economies in South America are in disarray

4.) Systemic shift in preferences? Coincidental to zero interest rates? I would put more emphasis on the rates and speculation

5.) I am one of those people who grew up loving Ferraris, including some of the ones that have run up like crazy. I am a buyer, but not at these prices because I think they are wacky. Just my view, and obviously others disagree

 

Putting aside all the macro economic factors that is probably the most likely factor that is causing the prices rises to level off and fall (but not collapse yet).

I love my Daytona to bits and would never sell it but if I had circa $1m I would not be spending that money on one when something like a 550/575 can be had for maybe a 5th of that.

If they were the same money or the Daytona had a small premium (which not so many years ago was exactly the situation) then that would be the car that I would always pick just not at the differential they are currently at.

Now I know that a Daytona overall is much rarer than a 550/575 but when you look at number of cars available on the open market the difference is a lot closer. An admittedly unscientific look on Classic Driver lists 30 Daytona Berlinettas for sale compared to 50 550/575s.

 

Funny thing is I would prefer your Daytona all day long, even at the wacky pricing ratio. I have nothing against 550s but the manual cars are going at prices that (to me) are just silly.

If I were allocating $1mm to spend on a car today, I would buy a more modern car that I like, and hold steady on the rest until prices recede to something more reasonable.

The modern / usual used car market is pretty normal, so those are where the "deals" are. Of course not apples to apples, but that is how I personally look at it.