New Plane Market in 2018 | Page 8 | FerrariChat

New Plane Market in 2018

Discussion in 'Aviation Chat' started by rob lay, Dec 19, 2017.

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  1. jcurry

    jcurry Two Time F1 World Champ
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    In a couple ways Swearingen and Bede were cut from the same cloth. Great innovators and designers, not so great businessmen. Al Mooney was a close cousin. Respect to all three.
     
  2. Jason Crandall

    Jason Crandall F1 Veteran

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    You need a good lav on a long endurance airplane.
     
  3. Jeff Kennedy

    Jeff Kennedy F1 Veteran
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    Yup. And it might not need to be so "long" for the requirement to kick in.

    There were stories back in the day how Learjet lost sales for the 35 if the boss's wife was on the demo flight.
     
  4. Jason Crandall

    Jason Crandall F1 Veteran

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    The Lav in my Pilatus is constantly used..... even on under 2 hour flights.
     
  5. jcurry

    jcurry Two Time F1 World Champ
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  6. Jason Crandall

    Jason Crandall F1 Veteran

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  7. Ak Jim

    Ak Jim F1 Veteran
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    So what's the hourly rate for a C152/172 with an instructor?
     
  8. rob lay

    rob lay Administrator
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    For most part the solid schools with more recent equipment, good instructors, and Part 141 are $130-175 an hour. I think that is the major barrier now to new pilots.

    FAA stats don't show a huge decrease in overall pilots, but there are decreasing private pilots and more ATP. The number of Private Pilots has decreased 37% since 2008. ATP is up 8%. Student pilots is up a bunch (44%), but I think that is all the pilots training for professional route and all the "false starters". There has always been a problem with student pilots that at some stage don't follow through, but I think that is even more likely now with the high costs. Maybe the high prices for the solid schools leads more people to the "instruct on the side" in 50 year old plane route, that I don't know how anyone can finish, unless instructor hard core runs it like a Part 141 school. I would also love to see hours flown by Private Pilots, I bet that's way down!
     
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  9. donv

    donv Two Time F1 World Champ
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    There are also a ton of foreign students training in the US. I'm sure that inflates the student pilot stats quite a bit.
     
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  10. lear60man

    lear60man Formula 3

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    Late to the party. Are we arguing PC12 vs Mustang 3?

    If I was in the market....LR60, then high time Citation X, then a GIV. 60 for a stand up cabin, X for the speed+ coast to coast and GIV for the stand up cabin, dual crappers + galley and 4400NM range.

    But then again....I dont pay the bills. I'm prepping my owner with a bill for repaint, ADS-B, FANS1A, and whatever the new display units in the cockpit are including Honeywell software upgrades for WAAS. Thank the lord the new engines, 5000 landing cycle and 150 APU bill was already done ($3.1 Mil). The 40% pay raises just flew buy considering the mid ($1.2 mil) invoice in the pipe for mandated avionics. HUD/EVS/FLIR repair added another heavy 6 figure ding to the MX bill this year.

    Seriously, you guys all have nice planes. This isnt a wiener contest, cuz there is always another dude with a bigger one. Might I suggest joining together to form a partnership to get a group discount on Jet 1A, ramp fees and insurance? Fight together, not against each other.

    Christian
     
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  11. Juan-Manuel Fantango

    Juan-Manuel Fantango F1 World Champ
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    Yeah, eight and half inches barely gets you in the club anymore....
     
  12. donv

    donv Two Time F1 World Champ
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    I thought it was Lear 60 for the climb rate?
     
  13. Jason Crandall

    Jason Crandall F1 Veteran

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    Did that years ago. It's called CAA.

    What's a Mustang 3?
     
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  14. sigar

    sigar F1 Rookie
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    Not in this league, but just spent over $150k for ADS-B Out upgrades. On an aircraft with TCAS. Thanks, FAA!
     
  15. donv

    donv Two Time F1 World Champ
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    I think ADS-B is really a great thing. While it may cost some money, it's a huge improvement in safety.

    The airplanes which were hit really hard by that requirement were later airplanes with integrated avionics. On something like my Commander, it was very cheap since I already had Garmin transponders and avionics, and even if I hadn't, it wouldn't have been too bad to install them. But on something like, say, a Lear 60 with a Collins integrated package, it becomes really hard and expensive.
     
  16. mikesufka

    mikesufka F1 Veteran
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    On a somewhat related note - last weekend on Sunday, I went from Lake Havasu, AZ, to St. Cloud, MN. Talk about a PITA. Drove 2 1/2 hours to Las Vegas, turned in rental car, got to airport, flew to Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN, got in my car, and drove a little over an hour to St. Cloud, MN. Wish I had a Baron or a Pilatus or a Mustang or a Citation X or just about anything that would fly private. LOL.

    MDS
     
  17. sigar

    sigar F1 Rookie
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    Yeah, I know it should greatly improve the safety. It just sucks to pay $200K for TCAS so you can see everyone else, and then be forced to pay another $150K so they can see you.
     
  18. lear60man

    lear60man Formula 3

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    Its expensive to be vain. There is no 12 step program after being addicted to flying private. No Betty Ford FBO.....just South West on the fall down to the real world haha. Sorry but this is a rich mans issue. Its better to be safe than save some lunch money.

    Sorry if I got some of the planes wrong in my previous post. Im out of the loop in the smaller types as far as what costs how much. My gig is large cabin Gulfstreams. I only fly them and send out the bills. If I had the $$ I would spend it on a boat like an Azimut or Pershing or ? Till then, Ill fly my bird and let the owner pick up the tab.
     
  19. sigar

    sigar F1 Rookie
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    Umm, we're on a FERRARI forum! And, flying private isn't about vanity for everyone. You should know as well as anyone that they are useful business tools.

    Furthermore, what about the guy that has a small charter operation and is just squeeking by as it is? I know a contract pilot that took a big risk and got a loan to buy a Premier 1 to operate on charter. I don't know what the ADS-B upgrade costs on that bird, but if it is $150K, I'll bet that is probably 75% to 100% of his annual profit.

    How many midair collisions have there been in the last year? 5 years? 10 years? I don't think it's been a major problem. How many millions (billions) will be spent on these forced regulations? I think if you run a cost benefit analysis you will clearly see ADS-B is the result of avionics manufacturers lobbying efforts and not statistics. And, I take back my prior statement. I don't know that this will greatly improve safety. I do however know the industry will greatly profit from it.

    This much is clear.
     
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  20. donv

    donv Two Time F1 World Champ
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    I feel badly for your friend, because owning an airplane to operate on charter is not a good way to make money... well, let's say it's a way to make a small fortune-- if you start with a large one!

    Low budget charter operators have been their own safety problem for years-- see the accident in Teterboro, last summer. And while I don't have the statistics handy, mid-air collisions do happen, and not infrequently. In fact, there was one just last week where a 150 hit a CitationJet on takeoff.
     
  21. Jason Crandall

    Jason Crandall F1 Veteran

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    TCAS wouldn't have helped in that situation. They were both on the ground.

    As for taking out a loan to buy a Premier to charter...... nvm
     
  22. donv

    donv Two Time F1 World Champ
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    ADS-B absolutely tracks airplanes on the ground. And no, they weren't both on the ground. The Citation was landing and the 150 was taking off.
     
  23. Jason Crandall

    Jason Crandall F1 Veteran

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    If the 150 was flying how did it hit the Citation sitting on the ground?. The Citation was at a complete stop at an intersection. Neither was talking to ATC and neither talking on UNICOM either.
     
  24. sigar

    sigar F1 Rookie
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    Not my friend and I'm not justifying the economics of chartering. I'm just stating that these regulations cost real money and that money is very significant to some operators. I don't know the stats, but lets say there is a mid-air collision every year that could have been prevented by ADS-B. Is that worth a billion or more cost to all operators? I don't think so. If you're concerned about mid-air collisions you can buy a TCAS system. The poor bastard in Montana that flies his 172 around his cattle grazing land and never comes within 50 miles of another aircraft doesn't benefit from ADS-B. But, I'm also someone that thinks that a large portion of our safety regulations (not necessarily aviation related) are unnecessary because the likelihood of an incident without the regulation is statistically irrelevant. You'll never hear me say "If it saves one life it's worth it." How many lives, and how much money? If the cost/benefit analysis doesn't prove out, it's on the individual to protect themselves on their own dime and not burden the rest of society. IMHO.

    But, I digress. This is some serious thread drift. I'll try to refrain from opining on ADS-B on this thread moving forward.
     
  25. donv

    donv Two Time F1 World Champ
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    I know you are never wrong, so I don't know why I bother, but...

    The Citation was not talking on unicom, correct. The 150 was, however. The 150 was taking off, the Citation was landing. So at the beginning of the 150's takeoff roll, the Citation was flying. The 150 was in the air by the time he hit the Citation.
     

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