Tesla Model 3 - Make or Break ??

Competition and Recall.

Alibaba-backed EV start-up eyes big investment this year, while Tesla recalls thousands of models

April 10, 2018


Chinese electric vehicle producer Xiaopeng Motors has plans to fundraise RMB17 billion ($2.7 billion) this year, Bloomberg reports, with investment being led by tech giants Alibaba and Foxconn.

Speaking at the Boao Forum yesterday, company founder He Xiaopeng said that pre-sales of the first model will begin by the end of April.

As of January, the start-up collected RMB5 billion, RMB2.2 billion coming from Alibaba and Foxconn combined.

EV companies are looking to take advantage of China’s government-lead shift towards a cleaner national energy policy, with generous subsidies for green technology and a reduction in oil as a share of total energy consumption. The country already accounts for over half of all EV sales worldwide, making China’s domestic market the world’s largest.

Elsewhere, market pioneer Tesla announced yesterday that it plans to recall close to 9,000 vehicles in China beginning the end of June, due to a global production issue involving steering control faults.


https://chinaeconomicreview.com/alibaba-backed-ev-start-up-eyes-big-investment-this-year-while-tesla-recalls-thousands-of-models/

 

Didn’t mean to touch a nerve. Not anti Tesla at all, quite the contrary. Believe I was stating the obvious - ie high demand on an all new model usually leads to QC issues. I’d sell my shares, ymmv.

 

of course not.
but then dont chafe when i call out the blatant, daily, and mostly unrequited, but quickly becoming pathetic, schadenfreude.

cue NEP....

 

i follow the thread in hopes that there might be something worthwhile to read at some point vs daily regurgitations of the irate shorts !

 

Tesla CEO Elon Musk on Goldman 'sell': 'Place your bets'

April 10, 2018

Tesla back on the road to recovery?

Loup Ventures Managing Partner Gene Munster on the outlook for Tesla.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk had a terse response to a report from Goldman Sachs in which the investment bank cut its price target for the electric car maker and questioned whether it can meet its Model 3 production goals.

“Place your bets,” Musk wrote on Twitter.

In a report published Tuesday, analysts at Goldman Sachs reiterated their “sell” rating and cut their price target to $195 from $205. The investment bank’s 12-month forecast suggests that Tesla’s shares could fall 36% from its current level of $304.70 a share, as of Tuesday’s close.

Goldman Sachs cited slow production of the Model 3, saying Tesla will likely build about 1,400 units per week during the second quarter. The company has affirmed its goal of reaching a weekly production rate of 5,000 Model 3s by the end of the first half of 2018. Tesla, which has struggled with production issues since the all-electric sedan launched last year, said Musk would focus his time on improving production Opens a New Window. .

The Goldman Sachs report also noted that Tesla may need to raise capital for additional capacity and product expansion, although the company has said it won’t need to seek outside funds this year to support the Model 3 rollout.


https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-on-goldman-sell-place-your-bets

 

Chinese EV sales grew 70% during 2017, with Tesla in 10th place.

1) BYD - 109 546
2) BAIC - 103 879
3) Zotye - 46 415
4) Zhi Dou - 42 400
5) Chery - 40 663
6) JAC - 40 234
7) JMC - 33 828
8) Roewe - 32 991
9) Kandi - 28 165
10) Tesla - 26 383

As Tesla is not prepared to partner with Chinese Automobile Manufactures, their sales success will slip further behind.

 

imagine that. the most expensive ev in the mix, that also has a 25% tariff attached to it, sells the least....how did that happen?

tesla's rise this week must really be chapping your ass.

 

Too much competition in electric cars means Tesla stock will drop to $84 by end of 2019: analyst

April 12, 2018

• Too much competition in the electric car industry will send Tesla stock down to $84 by the end of 2019, says analyst Gordon Johnson. It's currently priced at more than $300.
• "The real issue we have with Tesla is competition," Johnson says.
• He says by 2022 there will be more than 100 electric cars on the market.

With so much competition in the electric car industry, Tesla's stock will drop to $84 by the end of next year, Vertical Research Group analyst Gordon Johnson said. Vertical issued a sell rating on the stock earlier this week.

"Year-end [20]19, we think the stock will be $84," Johnson told CNBC on "Closing Bell" Wednesday. Tesla was priced at more than $300 by the end of trading Wednesday.

Johnson said competition concerns and disappointing delivery expectations are hindering the company.

"The real issue we have with Tesla is competition," he said.

In 2017 the "first non-Tesla, 100 percent battery electric ... car capable of 200 miles hit the market: the Chevy Bolt," said Johnson, adding four more electric vehicles are set for release this year.

"Through 2022, we count 101 [more electric vehicles coming to market]," he said. "Big competition coming."

Meanwhile, Tesla said sales would increase more than 60 percent in the first half of 2017. But Gordon said the company's sales rose by only 6 percent. Sales growth in the U.S. year over year increased just 3 percent.

"Time and time again [Telsa has] targeted production numbers that they haven't hit," Johnson said.

In 2014, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that in 2015 Tesla would produce 60,000 of its midsize, all-electric Model X luxury vehicles, but it produced only 208. The company also said it would make about 1,600 Model 3 automobiles during 2017's third quarter, but it made about 200.

The company will need to raise money in the coming year, Johnson said, in order to increase production numbers.

But on Wednesday, Reuters reported that the company is targeting November 2019 for the release of the Model Y, a sport utility vehicle, with production in China to begin two years later.

Tesla could not be reached for comment.


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/11/too-much-competition-tesla-stock-will-drop-to-84-by-2019-analyst.html

 

Ive stated this before and I will say again, there will be a time and place in the very near future where electric cars will be part of microgrids, either plugged into a charger at work, or at home or anywhere, Tesla's powerwall is already out there and there are others...electric cars are batteries with wheels and will be leveraged...if Tesla is to survive, they need to adapt, otherwise they will be out....
They are hiring a lot of people at Panasonic in Sparks Nevada, which a lot are used to support Model 3...

 

Does anyone actually like the way this car looks? I'm talking about the owners as well. Randomly yesterday driving by Disney in Orlando I thought about their GM test track ride at Epcot and immediately thought the Tesla 3 dashboard is like that car's dash...the exterior honestly isn't much different...

 

Tesla pauses Model 3 production for several days

April 17, 2018

• Tesla is pausing Model 3 production at its Fremont, California factory to " to improve automation and systematically address bottlenecks."
• Buzzfeed reports that the shut-down will last four to five days.
• The news comes on the heels of CEO Elon Musk tweeting that "excessive automation" at Tesla was a mistake.

Tesla is temporarily shutting down production for the Model 3 at its factory in Fremont, California.

Buzzfeed reports that the pause will last four to five days, according to Tesla employees.

This shutdown follows a prior one in late February, and a company spokesperson referred CNBC to the same statement it offered then.

"Our Model 3 production plan includes periods of planned downtime in both Fremont and Gigafactory 1," they wrote. "These periods are used to improve automation and systematically address bottlenecks in order to increase production rates. This is not unusual and is in fact common in production ramps like this."

The Model 3 is critical to Tesla's future as a mass-market auto maker. More than 400,000 people have pre-ordered one, paying $1,000 refundable fees to do so.

The news comes several days after CEO Elon Musk tweeted that "excessive automation at Tesla was a mistake."

Tesla missed its target for Model 3 productionlast quarter amid reports of production struggles that Musk called "production hell." In the last six months, the company has struggled getting its battery production up to speed, and with a relatively high proportion of parts that needed fixes, as it has worked to speed production of the vehicle that's critical to its figure as a mass-market auto maker.

In the past week, the company has faced reports that it has under-counted factory worker injuries and is struggling to manage a significant amount of damaged auto parts.



https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/16/tesla-pauses-model-3-production.html

 

Here's Where We Are in Tesla's Production Curve

Aprll 18, 2018

Tesla's latest Model 3 numbers show that the production curve is working, even if it's been shifted to the right by a few months.

Tesla Inc. (TSLA - Get Report) is gearing up for the ninth circle of "Model 3 production hell."

In an email to employees Tuesday, Tesla CEO Elon Musk let the cat out of the bag with respect to where Tesla currently sits in its Model 3 production ramp up.

The company is planning on reaching a burst-build target rate of 6,000 Model 3s per week in June, in order to hit its long-stated goal of 5,000 cars per week with a margin of error.

To do that, Tesla is pushing to a 24/7 production schedule at its Fremont, Calif. factory following three to five days downtime for production line upgrades both at the Fremont factory and the Gigafactory in Nevada.

The email also revealed that Tesla completed 2,250 Model 3 vehicles last week, alongside another 2,000 Model S and Model X vehicles.

Much ado has been made about Tesla's inability to meet its production goals. Thing is, those criticisms are pretty vapid. By its very nature, a new model production ramp up is fraught with pitfalls and challenges. While those can cause delays, they don't have a lasting impact on the entire car program -- they simply shift the production timeline curve to the right.

At this point, Tesla is clearly several months behind schedule. But asking for flawless execution for a car that's revolutionary in so many ways is more than a bit short-sighted.

Likewise, Tesla has been here before. Back in 2012, I was at Tesla's Fremont plant as the very first production Model S vehicles were creeping down the assembly line. It was a painfully slow process as technicians worked out bugs along the line and trained robots at artificially slow paces in order to ensure that speeds could be increased without issues.

Later that year, there were plenty of complaints about Tesla's delays in the Model S assembly line (in Sept. 2012, Tesla was falling short of its goal of producing 400 Model S sedans per week, with more than 13,000 reservations in the queue).

But Tesla's ramp up for the Model S looked a lot like the production timeline chart above, albeit shifted to the right. Today, those production delays are a distinct memory, and you can have a custom-optioned Model S delivered in 1-2 months.

Now, we're seeing major parallels in the Model 3 program.

It took Tesla four years to accomplish the volume on the Model S and X production line that it's done in about eight months for the Model 3.

To be very clear, delays in Model 3 deliveries don't present an existential crisis for Tesla at this stage in the game. But poor execution (quality issues, for instance) could. Tesla's latest snapshot at its assembly line shows us that its strategy is working.

Here's more or less where that puts Tesla Model 3 on its production timeline curve:

Image Unavailable, Please Login


https://www.thestreet.com/investing/where-we-are-in-tesla-production-curve-14560261

 

Tesla receives a failing grade from Better Business Bureau

The BBB claims the company doesn't respond satisfactorily to customer complaints.

April 22, 2018


Tesla just got a failing grade, and not from the many folks waiting for their Model 3 to come online. No, the Better Business Bureau gave the company an "F" for not resolving customer complaints, sometimes not even responding to complaints.

According to a report in the Mercury News, the BBB received 65 official complaints about Tesla, but only 23 were resolved satisfactorily. Of the remaining complaints, Tesla responded to 10 of them but didn't offer an adequate solution and in 15 cases the company didn't respond at all. In the remaining cases, the BBB says Tesla responded to the problem but either the customer rejected the response or didn't notify the bureau that the issue had been resolved.

Grievances have ranged from warranty issues to customer-perceived defective floor mats. One official complaint had nothing to do with Tesla cars; a promised email receipt for the purchase of two Tesla t-shirts was not sent to a customer.

The cult of Tesla is a strong one, and it's highly doubtful this development will make much of a dent in its armor. Still, if you file a case with the Better Business Bureau, you might need to be the squeaky wheel if you want to see a solution.


https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-receives-a-failing-grade-from-better-business-bureau/

 

you dont have much going on in your life huh?

 

People also said to sell shares when it was at $190, i bought instead. Seems to have been an ok decision.

 

Tesla: Where Exactly Is The Upside?

April 23, 2018


Summary
Current valuation bears no resemblance to industry leaders.

Model 3 sales will not reach a level to justify current valuation.

Tesla’s admission of over automation destroys the valuation narrative.

In a recent article I illustrated the attainable market for the Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Model 3 was far smaller than most people imagined. Once you can identify the attainable market, an investor can use all types of metrics to try to determine the probabilities of one company attaining a certain percentage of that market share. Although, market share projections are highly suspect as no model can predict how the market will react to new competition. As new technology and designs enter the market leaders do not sit idly as a new competitor eats up their market share. The market leaders will innovate, imitate, restructure and undercut the competition to protect their turf. Due to this fact, a new entrant may have an amazing year, but it is very hard to maintain an extraordinary market share in the automotive industry.

The narrative for those who are long Tesla holds that Tesla is a revolutionary company. As EV sales grow Tesla will revolutionize the auto industry and eventually dominate the industry. The narrative also suggests that Tesla is a technology company. Tesla will employ technology to build cars more efficiently and reap a much higher margin than industry standards. Due to this belief, Tesla has been valued as a technology startup. However, when 90% of Tesla’s revenue comes from automotive sales, there's no denying that they are an automotive manufacturer.

Fortunately, it is easy to see how the market values success in the automotive industry. When you pair the market fundamentals of industry leaders with the attainable Model 3 market, it is also easy to see that there's no rational upside to Tesla at the current valuations.

The table below highlights the market fundamentals of the automotive industry leaders compared to that of Tesla.





https://seekingalpha.com/article/4164947-tesla-exactly-upside

 

I find the posts informative.

 

Seeking alpha has been writing how terrible of a stock Tesla is from at least 2012 when the stock was in the 30s. Its now gone up almost 10 fold, all the while seeking alpha continues to say how awful they are. Why would anyone continue to listen to a site who has been so very very wrong for so long?

 

That may be, but it doesn't change the fact that SA doesn't understand the stock, and hasn't understood it for its entire history.

 

Musk's Personal Finances Threaten Tesla's Stock Price

May 01, 2018


Summary

Elon Musk has borrowed hundreds of millions of dollars against 13.8 million of his TSLA shares.

It's possible Musk could face a margin call if the stock goes to the $218 neighborhood.

If Musk is unwilling or unable to provide cash or other collateral, his shares could be liquidated.

And liquidation of his shares would create downward share price pressure.

A moderate slide in TSLA shares could quickly turn into an avalanche.


Elon Musk's Large Personal Debt Load

Elon Musk famously does not take a salary from Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). Instead his compensation comes in the form of stock options (the millions he’s received so far and the millions more he could receive under the new CEO compensation package approved this year) and appreciation of his Tesla shares.

But it takes a lot of money to live the billionaire lifestyle with 5 Beverly Hills mansions, a private jet, fancy gasoline-powered sports cars, and the like. Musk could simply sell some of his shares to raise cash, but then he would face a very significant tax bill and decrease his ownership control over the company.

Instead, Musk has borrowed increasingly large sums against his Tesla shares to support his lifestyle and fund his investments

Year Total Borrowing Secured by TSLA Shares

2012 $50 million

2013 $300 million

2014 $300 million

2015 $475 million

2016 $486 million

2017 $625 million

Data sourced from Tesla Prospectus SEC filings

Not all this money went to jet fuel and premium unleaded for his luxurious rides. Several times Musk borrowed cash to buy SolarCity and Tesla shares and a SolarCity bond. I also believe that some or all of his recent $100 million investment in the Boring Company was funded with borrowing.



https://seekingalpha.com/article/4168224-musks-personal-finances-threaten-teslas-stock-price