Is the 488 depreciating faster than expected?

Supposedly either a facelift or replacement will be announced in the coming days, so they’re about to no longer be the “current” model. That must have a bit to do with it?

 

I like the sound and being turbo is OK with me.

 

You need to recognize that the two cars are, by definition, on different slopes of the depreciation curve and that there is 5 years initial release difference between them. Thus, a 458 could be as many as 9 years along the depreciation curve at a more gentle slope than a 488 that would be only 4 years down a steeper part of the early curve which may be contributing to the impression you are getting now. Just some food for thought.

 

Base MSRP for a 488 was $240K, so your example ain't that far off sticker.

Found your $225K car here.

 

If the two V8 Ferraris released this year are adorned, prices of all existing V8's will take a decline in value. None of the cars will be available for only $1000, but a noticeable drop will be seen. Public perception could sway values up of current cars as well. If this new hybrid is seen as an abomination and has terrible reliability issues, current gorgeous Ferraris could hold and in some cases increase in value, IMO.

 

On the other hand, the willingness of Ferrari to increase the list prices could support the prices of older Ferraris...

But it's natural for recent cars to suffer depreciation, I think some tend to refer to what was an abnormal speculative situation in 2014-2016 as the norm. Which is was not, all prices have dropped by now and the most recent cars have been back to a normal pattern.

Normally cars have decreasing prices for some years (when they are considered as used cars), then they stabilise for a while (when they have reached what is considered as a minimal value for the category / model of car), and eventually they go back again in value as they have become rarer and became "collectible".

The abnormal situation of 2014-2016 is exemplified by the older cars; typically after it has reached its bottom value a car should never drop again after it started to go up again. But testarossas and Maranellos had reached their bottom prices, they just went up too fast in 2014-2016 so that now their prices are dropping again (not to go back to the bottom, but by a lot compared to the bubble peak).

 

Except most paid $330K++ after options.

488's are in the toilet on secondary in US.

 

In a word: Overproduction.

 

No. The 488 is definitely depreciating faster then the 458 ever did.

 

A GTB at $330K did not have resale value in mind, those are cars whereby owners just ordered what they wanted, resale value be damned.

They're not limited production, they will lose value and you have to act accordingly. Typically expect to lose around $30K/year, so a 2016 should be had at $90K off sticker, but I still don't see any going that low on a REASONABLE spec, meaning no triple color paint, CF dashboard loading, etc.

 

Not really, the 488 is depreciating at the same rate as the 458. Check out the ‘15 458 Spider listed in the Cars section on FChat. Car offered at $100K off list with only 3300 miles.

 

I owned a 458 and 488. I can tell you without question that the 488 market has not been as strong as the 458 market was during a similar time period. Ask any broker or dealer. Asking isn’t the same as selling price.

 

I owned a 458 and currently own a 488. My experience is the cars depreciate at almost the exact rate. This is based on the trade in I received on my 458 and the quote I received on my 488 should I decide to purchase the LB. Both cars were spec’d almost identically and had similar mileage.
Maybe there will be a divergence as the 488 ages, but not thus far

 

I think any difference between the rate of depreciation between the 458 and 488 can be attributed more to the state of competition in the current marketplace (i.e., more choices such as the McLarens) than with any inherent desirability of the 458 vis-a-vis the 488.

 

In only Germany there are over 150 488's for sale on Autoscout24.de,

Look at the prices … thats where it is going soon …

 

Depends when you bought. Depreciation might be similar for people who got cars in late 2015, but could be worse for people who bought in 2017.

2012 458s might have had better residuals in 2014 than 2017 488 have in 2019.

 

I agree, that it is why it is way too early to guess how the 488 depreciation will compare to the 458. In my personal example both cars were a little over 2 years old and the numbers were provided before the next model was introduced. If I were to guess I would think the 488 will begin to depreciate faster if for no other reason the Ferrari’s accelerated model turnover.

FWIW, my 458 was a ‘13 and the 488 is a ‘17. Both are Spiders.

 

Recognizing all 8 diverse comments after this post which make good points, there are still some more factors involved in the analysis. The 488 was about 6% more expensive than the 458. That in turn implies that there are about $15,000 more dollars of capital to depreciate, which in absolute terms, can be contributing to the difference in perceived depreciation rates.

The only to way to know for sure is to compare both cars on a percentage depreciation basis. And to get an accurate apples to apples comparison, it would likely involve going back in time and getting old Blue Book publications and comparing the monthly depreciation on a percentage basis over comparable time periods since new. Anybody want to take on that task and post up the findings?

 

Here is what is hurting the 488. Ferrari as changed the formula for releasing new v8 cars.

The 458 came out in 2010. The production ran all the way to 2015. That’s 6 years of 458 production.

488 comes out in 2016 and 3 years later there is already a refresh.

Now it remains to be seen how the values do over time but definitely the 488 is depreciating faster than I expected for sure.

 

I'm not afraid to repeat myself
In 2015 there was a bubble supporting all kinds of Ferrari, including the 2012 458; there is no such thing today, so the 488 is on a regular Ferrari depreciation pattern - as are 2015 458.
The pricing difference between the 488 when it was introduced and the outgoing 458 was minimal, and I do not see any 2015 458 closer in price to 2015 488 than the initial price gap (rather the opposite, to be honest).
And a 2011 458 is now suffering close to 50% depreciation - something that will happen later to 488s.

 

I’d argue the 360, 430 and 458 all held their values better with respect to depreciation during the first 3 years then the 488. I’ve owned them all with the exception of the 360 and I lost very little on all but I had a very early 488 and kept it about 14 months. If I’d of kept it for 24 months the difference would’ve likely been around 50-70k in the wrong direction. I owned my 430 and 458 for over 2 years each and lost a fraction of that. I agree this is just my experience and we’d need to do a thorough analysis before knowing for sure . But all my friends including Ferrari dealerships seem to concur that the 488 is depreciating at a much faster rate.

 

Population is more
People are wealthier

That being said. Ferrari pretty much had the entire exotic car market to themselves in the past. Now they have to share it. People in the past who may have been secondary market buyers at close to MSRP have a lot more choices now. That is really the major impact since 2016 and will continue going forward. It doesn't have anything to do with the desirability or lack of it on the 488 (I think we can all agree that it is a great car). Doubtful that any regular production model between the major exotic car brands will hold value. (It won't be a part of the decision process of which car/marque to get into anyways).