Now Dr's are saying 70% of people in the USA will get covid19, what I'm about to say might sound crazy but there is some logic to it. Would I be better off getting it now vs later when a large part of the population has it? I'd think I would be better off getting it as soon as possible then getting it with hospitals overflowing, stores closed etc.
Surely 70% is the worst case scenario? that would be over 4 mio deaths @ 3% mortality.....very unlikely
no one knows if people will get reinfected either so best to stay healthy as long as possible. do not try to outthink things like that. very dangerous
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Most coronavirus cases are mild. It's highly unlikely everyone with symptoms will be tested. The largest hospital system in town where I work (its' a university btw) said they are only testing those with symptoms AND travel history and not just symptoms alone even if contact with a traveler (they told them to self-quarantine if that's the case like Justin Troudeau just did to himself). The real number of cases will be under-reported, which makes the mortality rate look higher as only the very sick will get tested going forward.
Everyone should watch this 15-minute video, there is a link on the page for the entire interview, I just keep hearing these stats over and over by the top leading infections diseases experts.
that only means the point of inflection is imminent ie end of exponential growth. the crazy numbers chipg is worried about is based on an infinite exponential growth which is an impossibility unless he sees 100% of the population being infected and then getting reinfected. A lot of mild cases will also vastly go unreported because well, they’re mild.
It looks to be taking a month for a country to reach flattening of their growth curve for reported cases (not all, just reported). I expect reported US cases to level out April 1 +/- a few days.
sounds about right, as long as ppl maintain sensible behavior. To be frank, personally I’m not worried about the virus, the baggage it brought with it is what’s killing me right now eg stock market, hate crime against Asians & bloody toilet paper hoarding...c’mon
If USA doesn't take some drastic measure such as locking down entire City's, then they will end up like Italy i'm afraid.It might already be too late though. Italy has 250 cases per 1 mio population , so Usa with 330 mio X 250 = 82500 cases. From there you could speculate on mortality...
Italy's population density is much higher than the US (over 500/sq mile vs less than 100/sq mile in US). Obviously places like NYC are screwed, but in general the US is pretty spread apart unlike Europe. I think people in US will calm down when news runs out of headlines as they show growth rate decreases by end of March and they realize most survive and only have mild symptoms. I'm just hoping my parents don't get it due to their age and health problems they already have.
Let's also keep in mind that China is a communist country where your jailed or worse for breaking quarantine, in the USA people infected have broken their home quarantine and have been caught out in public, the USA has very little chance with all the freedom and the I do what I want mentality, I think the USA is in real trouble.
For comparison, S Korea population density is 1,300 per sq mile and Wuhan is 3,200 per sq mile. Pretty easy for stuff to spread like that.
Los Angeles is 7,544.6 people per square mile... We are ******! Based on the 2010 census data, Los Angeles had a density of 7,544.6 people per square mile (2,910/square kilometer). While it's the second-most populous urban area, Los Angeles is the single most densely populated area in the United States.Feb 17, 2020
Well worrying won't solve anything and if you take normal precautions it can reduce transmitting infection. Washing hands and not touching your face being two main ones to do. There are many reported cases in the US where their close contacts do not have the infection based on both symptoms and labs (NBA players in contact with the 2 Jazz players being those among others that were tested). Also, if the numbers being reported by countries and US states is somewhat accurate (hard to say how consistent they are and if they are truthful like Russia and China), then this virus is not spreading fast in warmer climates. It's mainly in higher latitudes that it's spreading faster while closer to the equator it's not (in the US such as MA, NY, WA and other countries too). So there is hope it may actually slow down as we warm up in this hemisphere.
Only 32 cases in your area. You can track it regularly here: http://www.publichealth.lacounty.gov/media/Coronavirus/
I use the John Hopkins app but there is a delay from our local news to these apps updating by 12 to 24 hours.
I'm sure thousands have it now in LA, the entire state of califonia has tested about 250 people and 221 are positive, just think if they had the kits to test 100,000
This is the huge scandal ..lack of testing kits ..so Trump tried to play it down until the kits started to ramp up.
Part of the problem in tracking this thing is the data out there is not consistent. We don't know who they decide to test (just travel history + symptoms, contact with traveler + symptoms, symptoms only etc) or how many they have even tested of their population. For instance, India has very few positive cases but it's hard to tell if that's because they simply haven't tested people or the virus doesn't do well in that climate with that population.
Korea has the best sample data quality overall due to amount of testing. Mortality is .07 from data passed yesterday. Singapore data is reliable.
