Corona Virus--any opinions on my take on the effect on collector car world?

ANY OPINION?


HOW THE VIRUS CHANGED THE COLLECTOR CAR WORLD:
TOSSING OUT THE PERFECTIONISTS




The collector car market got to be the way it was (before Corona virus) incrementally.
With genuine prewar classics, for instance, a lot of the cars that looked presentable had to be re-done in order not to get points off when being judged at the stricter concours, sometimes at great expense.
The top prize sometimes depended on a single point on correctness.
I predict, when Planet Earth emerges from the scourge of this virus, and we look around at who's still standing, a lot of the old stickler-or-accuracy rules will go out the window,
Why? Because the virus reminded us life is short, too short to search for five years to get the same number 250GT engine your Ferrari was built with to replace the one you have now that is one or two SN off.
So big concours will still be held but I predict the old criterion will be tossed out at least for the first two or three years because we as car enthusiasts are just glad to be surviving and enjoying cars again.

PROJECT CARS
With this disease being especially precarious for those over 50, and a good many car buffs being upwards in age, project cars will be re-assessed insofar as to the timeline that was originally planned ("I'll have the engine rebuilt when I can find an OSCA guy," etc.)
Think of a car owner in France in 1939. Sure it would be nice to get that '30s Bugatti running but German troops have just crossed the border so you have higher priorities. (I always picture King Zog of Romania fleeing with his family in a Bugatti Royale)There is bit of that crisis atmosphere.
Instead project cars will be rolled out to auctions on trailers and sold with all the parts in box behind it because owners over 50 realize the virus could come back, they may not be so lucky the next time. Might as well sell it, and buy something turn key ready

AUCTIONS
Nobody for the next year will want to go into a crowded indoor auction venue. So the auctions will be online, with more of the higher value cars having a big screen behind it showing the car running and driving.
Values will be all over the place, not reflect the steady gain we saw over decades in the pre-virus prices. There will be hardly any reserves because the sellers of middle class cars were counting on that car being a pillar of their net worth and now its value is debatable.

LEASE CLASSIC COPIES
With electric cars having no emissions there will be shops that put classic car bodies on ready made electric car platforms so you enjoy the dream car you always wanted without the worry of maintaining or smog testing an old car whose parts may be hard to find. Engine sounds can be artificially matched by commuter from recordings,

MUSEUMS
People will be scared to be in museums so car museums will have outdoor events, parades of their cars (but still be able to write off the cost of the museum).

SHIFT IN POPULARITY
While there will still be plenty of pre-1939 cars in museums the new emphasis will be '50s, and '60s cars. and less people who want to see a Duesenberg or Cord. A "classic:"will be a '65 Ford Mustang.

MIDDLE CLASS COLLECTORS will be forced to sell their project if they have a jog that is overly affected by the virus--say at an amusement park or sports stadium. You can hardly justify chroming that '57 Caddy bumper if you can't make the house payment. Think of a lifeboat at sea being threatened by being swamped by high waves, You don't want anything on board you don't need.



CARS 'N COFFEE THE MODEL
These are fun to go to.It's a run-what-ypu-brung situation. There will have to be police to ticket those w do burnouts but this might be the format for car shows now because nobody is going to plan a careful post-restoration appearance two years from now when we don't know if they will still be on earth.

NEW CLASSICS
Car companies will bite the dust, because some had parts being made in China and can't get them. There are cars in the showroom now that will be cars without a maker a year from now. So if you like to have something unusual, get the car you want now because its maker might not survive the fallout from the plague.

COLLECTOR CAR INSURANCE will be hard to get, because heretofore if your'57 Tbird went up in smoke, the insurance adjusters could safely estimate what that car is worth but if there's a plunge in collector car values, all bets are off in getting new policies to cover what you have in the car.

EUROPEAN COLLECTORS will dump those vintage cars in order to be able to save heir family businesses, some of which were 50% or more dependent on tourism. The family might want them to save the family business more than that old Ferrari they've been restoring for 30 years.

VINTAGE CAR RACING Forget any rules about what was run in that car back when it was new, The organizers will be so glad to see they can fill a grid, that they will forget about any attempt at authenticity. You;ll also see replica Cobras running against real Cobras . Car shows will only be able to let X number of people in, so say at the IN entrance there will be 200 people in line but none can enter until the counter the EXIT records someone left.

IN SUM...
Things they are a-changin'. The "new normal" is that you can count on the fact that things are not going to be like they were. Everybody is going to think short term, a year or two ahead, that's it. The new leitmotif will be "Have fun while you can" and forget about that long range project because we can't count on stability on the old car field.

 

Hagerty put out a say-nothing article on this topic last week. One of the reader comments contained the most valuable advice- "Watch Bring A Trailer this coming for the no-reserve auctions."

https://www.hagerty.com/articles-videos/articles/2020/03/12/what-the-coronavirus-outbreak-means-for-the-collector-car-market?utm_source=SFMC&utm_medium=email&utm_content=20_March_14_Weekend_Newsletter

 

I'm in the classic car business and have a number of them and help clients with theirs.

I just left an auction.

I'd say about 10% of what you said will happen.

The world is going to forget this in a pretty quick hurry.

Don't worry the regular scheduled program of left vs right. Blue vs red and family politics will resume.

Our attention span is shorter than ever.

I'd say 90% of the public forgets this in 6 months and honestly probably sooner.

 

Nope.

Look around. This will be more serious than 2008. It's not a financial crisis, it's a crisis in the real world economy. Main, not Wall St. This hurts - a lot.

Ultra rich people - those left - will be buying a lot more than just cars at a bargain.

 

Completely disagree with your assessment.

2008 was a real world crisis. Don't take this as an insult because I have NO CLUE who you are or what you do. You could be the world's brightest financial mind for all I know. So I do not mean this in a condecending way... But if you havent studied the last crash. Please do. That was tap dancing on a land mine. Very very close to a game ender.

 

But I do agree the rich will be buying things at bargain prices.

But all my very wealthy buddies and even not so wealthy buddies have been waiting for this for about 2 years and have cash stocked up to make a move.

I predict it will either be a short or shallow dip. There is LOTS of money on the sidelines to come in and buy physical assets.

HENCE THE SELL OFF.

 

I don't think 2008 was small, I do think we had that coming.

Not so much this.

I work in the family business - restaurants, with franchisees and a central production facility, in Brazil which you may or may not know wasn't doing so great before this thing.

It doesn't look good.

 

I am a physician, one who is already seeing this in my hospitals and will continue seeing this. Our peak cases come late may early june. Worst case sceanario is 2.2m deaths between now and august. Economically and socially this is going to be 1999 meets September 11th meets 2008.

 

To Merstheman. If you don't want to accept my comments based on my admittedly low net worth so be it. I am in fact a writer,in fact if you are a Ferrari guy you might have some of my books or one of my paintings on your den wall. But, being admittedly financially naive, I wanted to ask about 2008: i always wondered about the validity of the auto bailout. i was against it because shouldn't capitalistic companies die if their products weren't right? Why artificially prop up losers? But the Feds bailed out the big Three and I have to admit some good things came from them later, plus Detroit would have no longer been a viable city. So this time around how does the financial world feel about bailing out the automakers? Isn't the term "shake out" used to describe a shaking out of the business world of businesses that didn't deserve to keep doing business? Maybe if there's a big shake out of American business, what emerges afterward will be stronger (like that saying "What doesn't kill me makes me stronger...")

 

I disagreed with Technom3's statements, not yours.

 

993 turbos still insanely priced.

 

People will congregate together again in the not so distant future. The financial fallout, however, will carry on for much much longer. Some will think "yolo" now than ever and scoop up that car they've always wanted.. However, those enthusiasts won't be enough to keep the overall "fun/collector" car market from taking a nose dive.

 

It's been a week and a half LOL check back in 6-12 months

 

It's a financial crisis that started to show signs last year when the yield curve inverted (2 yr on the 10 yr) followed by emergency bailout by the Fed in the overnight lending market to stop the 9% overnight rates (last Fall). Banks have been in trouble for a while with liquidity. Junk bonds have been increasing over time as have their spreads. The bubble popped with this temporary combined supply and demand shock from the virus (a red herring imo to the financial problems that have been going on). The smart money has been on the sidelines since Fall of 2019 at the latest.

 

BMW.SauberF1Team....

Well heeled car collectors may be motivated to buy now when there's "blood in the streets" whereas at the margins, the less wealthy car collectors (who have more passion than money) may be more likely to sit on the sidelines.

Note: BMW.Sauber, is your 'desired Ferrari' the 575M that was up for auction a couple of years ago?

 

Yes it was! It's stunning. I've seen a 550 Barchetta in person in that color and it's by far my favorite for the 550/575.

Quad witching hour will be very interesting today.

 

anything after 2012 is going to continue get destroyed....strong hands with cash will focus on the older stuff first and then maybe new stuff.

pista spider will suffer same fate as 16m and in general people will be running away from orders...

 

GM won’t need a bail out this time, they finally have a model the public will buy in droves, the Ventilator Special Edition.

 

I do think when Rolls makes them they should put their badge on them. Pride of workmanship, something like that. I'd rather have a Rolls one than a Ford one....I'd like all the automakers to compete who can make them better and faster and at lower cost...that's capitalism in its purest form.

 

Big Two.... Ford did not take a bailout, IIRC.

 

Yes, you are correct.

 

Ford received close to 6B. They did take participate in bail-out money but under a different guise- a line of credit I believe and they had to sell Volvo, not that they wouldn’t have anyway.

 

No, no. Since I own one, they are still a bargain, way underpriced and will certainly be a million dollar car someday.
On the other hand, all the cars I don't have, but wish I did: Crazy that the owners are deluding themselves and don't realize the values have dropped at least twice as much as the stock market. CGT's should be back under $500K...

 

They are now junk bond status: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/guid/1A77D1C4-CAC2-4601-AD10-1DD9350ACDAD