No regular V12 coupe in production... First time ? What's next ?

Straight answers from "official communication" is one thing.
Reality and facts might be something different.
What I listed above I have seen with my own eyes and personally experienced (posts #64, #68, #69 and #70).

Marcel Massini

 

Color correction:
230260 was not yellow (as I said in post #70) but New Argento Nürburgring PPG 266669 (silvergrey) with interior Nero 110552 (black) and carpets Nero 152 (black). Brake calipers in red.
The rest of the description is correct.

Marcel Massini

 

That, my friends, is mastery! I don’t know if there’s anyone that gets Ferrari as much as the generous and encyclopedic @Marcel Massini.

 

So when did the 812 production start exactly and when did the F12 stop ?

Marcel said "Early 2017" . Was there a period when both were produced in middle 2017 ?

 

Started prior to March 2017.
I was several times at the factory in September 2017 and saw at least two F12 and a lot of 812 SF on the assembly line and on the same day.

Marcel Massini

 

Thanks

I thought the process was different. I thought the first 812 was following the last F12 on the assembly line

 

Exactly like it was . Last F12 produced was in Milan ready for sale , it was not even allocated before , September 2017 and I can confirm no one 812 SF was delivered yet . In order to compare apples to apples , not having production time from factory yet we can only consider delivery time of 812sf model and this is going from December 2017 to August 2020

 

By Ferrari's direct reveal, 1063 812SF were made for the USA (total production)

https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/rcl/2020/RCLRPT-20V614-8886.PDF

 

Thank you. Perfect.

 

Lot less 812s than Pistas.

 

Shocking that only 1,000 were produced for US. No reason to trade into GTS for most.

SF will hold its value nicely from this point forth.

 

May turn out to be equal numbers of both by the end of the run on the GTS. Still the GTS has the convertible hardtop which is pretty desirable if you are looking for the top down experience. I would sure look for it in the V12 if I didn't already have it but I am fine without the convertible aspect on this car. I think the real test though is to see if the number of 812s for sale begins to drop. That will let us know if there is demand for the car because lower numbers will only matter if there is demand for the car.

 

So my friends... the GTS and the VS won't occupy the V12 line for a long time. That means the 812 replacement must be at some advanced stage of conception ...

Did the first rumors pop-up ?

 

I think 1,063 is soft for the USA. I think the number is more, but probably not by a lot. The serial number range is fairly limited for that recall, but the date range is broad. If Ferrari is producing 8-10k cars per year, you would expect to see a higher serial number count from Mid July 2017 to Mid June 2020. I would say the serial number range should be between 16-20k in difference. Case in point, my 812 finished production June 18th, 2020 which is 3 days after the production date cutoff listed. However my serial number is 257794, and the last serial number listed in the recall is 238547. That's just shy of 20,000 serial numbers in difference.

Now of course not all of these 8-10k cars per year are going to the USA, and not all of them are going to be 812s. However if they produced 1063 for the USA between those serial numbers that are listed (232696-238547), that would be 1/6th of that range of serial numbers are 812s that ended up in the USA. Of course it's not perfect math, but 1/6th of the remaining serial numbers between 238647 and my 257794 would be another 3000 cars. I don't believe it to be that many, and I can't explain why there is a drastic gap in serial numbers. For what it's worth, my VIN was assigned while the Ferrari factory was closed for COVID.

This leads me to believe there are more 812SFs in the USA than 1,063, or the NHTSA document doesn't have the correct VIN range.

 

yes. there are a lot more than 1063 812 SF made for the US during its entire production run. according to 2 dealers the number is 5K so probably closer to 6K.

 

Marcel says 4762 812 coupes produced minimum. From that, Avia’s estimate of 5000 for the US alone seems a bit excessive.

20 years ago there were 3083 550 maranellos produced globally between 1996 and 2001, for example.

it would suggest tens of thousands of 812s globally. I can’t see that.

 

No way that is possible. Maybe in the world but impossible for us deliveries to be that high.

 

The stated VIN range is wildly inaccurate, unclear why FNA would provide obviously inaccurate data. But, the bulletin is for all produced up to June 15 2020, doubtful many more were produced after that date, factory closed last week of July and there are no MY2021 812SF for USA.

The VIN/actually 'chassis' number, is not sequential and the factory does not use every possible number, they do increase but if taken literally, between Feb 2015 and Jun 18 2020, Ferrari produced 49,337 cars (i.e. 257794 - 208457, your car less a car I know that was built in Feb 2015); which, of course, is inaccurate as they indicated shipments of 47,585 during that time (1752 or so diff since I do not have a known VIN from January 2015)

2015: 7664
2016: 8014
2017: 8398
2018: 9251
2019: 10131
2020: 4127 (thru Jun 30 2020)

above from page 10:
https://corporate.ferrari.com/sites/ferrari15ipo/files/ferrari_-_annual_report_2019.pdf

and
https://corporate.ferrari.com/en/q2-2020-affected-covid-19-line-expectations-full-year-guidance-narrowed-within-previous-range

 

Completely impossible.

According to MM worldwide production of 812SF is 4762
https://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/posts/147500251/

The actual number produced for USA until June 15 2020 is 1063, and perhaps a couple dozen after, if that.

The dealers you spoke with are providing inaccurate data. Instead, see if they will tell you how many 812SF they were actually allocated and shipped. Chances are their numbers are no more than 40 each unless they are one of the mega dealers and even then, likely to be fewer than 120.

 

What if GTS production exceeds SF? Which they may do to make up for Covid.

Pls 800 units of VS.
And 800 units of VS Aperta?
And then FUV V-12

... the V-12 line could run for years before 812 replacement - if there is a replacement.

 

Yes I was referring to 6K cars made worldwide. Sorry if the message wasn’t clear. I was saying if worldwide allocation is 6K there are way more than 1000 US cars. I hope that’s clear.

 

Yes, their VIN range is not correct.

Marcel Massini

 

There never was 6K 812SF production.

Worldwide production, TOTAL 812SF = 4762

USA production, TOTAL 812SF = 1063 {this is less than half F12 production for USA}

Recall that USA allocations were greatly reduced to allow EU and China to be over-produced, then the SF90 happened right as the USA allocations were to increase, but then the customer orders disappeared (due to SF90 reveal as being new 'top production model'), now the 812SF is out of production due to lack of demand. Leaving only the 812GTS.

 

There is nothing to suggest that the USA allocations are in any way greatly reduced or half as many as expected as you claim here and earlier.

Historically the Americas (North and South) have received around 30% of the global production (see p36 and p56 of the Ferrari annual reports of 2018 and 2019 respectively). USA would account for approx 25% after accounting for Canada, Mexico plus South Americas.

Using Marcel's 4762 for 812SF globally, that would put the 1063 is inline with those distributions. Your claim that half the normal USA allocations were actually given would have meant that USA alone was expecting to receive 45% of the total 812SF production which makes no sense.

Secondly, there is nothing to suggest that twice the number of F12 in the USA vs 812SF. The best estimate for F12 production is here

www.ferrarichat.com/forum/posts/147430842

and that is 4641 globally. Again 2100+ were delivered to Europe (carbase), again in line with the historical distribution of 45% in Europe. If twice as many F12 were delivered to the USA as 812SF as you claim, that would be 2200+ F12s in the US. So USA + Europe would have virtually all of the world's F12s, and Asia-pacific which accounts for 20% of global production would have virtually F12s. Again, doesn't make sense.


Conclusion: Both F12s and 812SFs were produced in similar numbers (approx 4700), and USA has received the usual historic share of the production of 812s, and absent better information, nothing to suggest that it received twice as many F12s as 812s. And no under supply of USA 812SF versus expectation.

 

You work for FNA?