How will the prestige sports ICE car market hold up w r to the EV push towards 2030?

They will adapt. However, I think hybrids with ICE will survive. Total electric won't work in all areas and all work applications, especially trucks.

But, the exotic manufacturers will adapt. They already are with hybrids and a few total EVs.

 

i’ve often wondered how half the population will be able to afford an electric car? they are all expensive.
will it be mandated like health care where the upper middle class will pay $75k for the same car that the lower class pays $15k? essentially the lower class population will be subsidized.
as we can see, we are importing a lot of uneducated low wage people from around the world. how will they buy the latest climate friendly autos?
and where will the first world obsoleted ice cars be shipped/sold to? 3rd wirld countries? i hope their climate doesnt mingle with our climate.

 

I think OP is asking about valuations and desire for existing ICE cars, not future exotic EV’s. I’ve been wondering about that as well, because while a 458 is amazing - especially the sound, which is disappearing altogether - there are a lot of existing exotics that may not have as much demand going forward and will therefore depreciate possibly much more than they have historically. I’ll likely keep mine for the thrill of rev’ing a flat-crank NA V8 to 9000rpm, but eventually there will be fewer of us left that care about that.


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I'm hopeful that gas (either refined from petroleum or synthesized from algae or something) remains available in the 2030's

 

i think the demand will be there for all ice.
some people thought that all modern ferraris would be junked because of the cost of restoration/maintenance but so far all are being kept road worthy.

 

I believe the market is already recognizing this, values and desire will remain strong, especially when "only" hybrid/fullEV are available to order. So, from here, it looks 2025 will be the time when only battery-pack cars (partial/hybrid or fullEV) will be available from new from nearly all manufacturers. At that point, values could really be up from where they are now given that all those wanting a new ICE-only simply will only have the itch scratched by purchasing pre-owned. And that is will not only apply to exotics, but to everyday vehicles too.

 

…except the California!


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Desire will almost certainly continue. There's plenty of examples of "outdated" vehicles from a performance standpoint showing strong demand. There's a reason classic muscle cars, aircooled 911s, old NSX, S2000s, E30/46 M3s, Ferrari F355 still attract a lot of interest, even though these cars are slower than modern sports cars. As EVs begin to become the norm, for both commuter and sports cars, enthusiasts will miss the "classic" ICE car experience, in the same way people today miss the analog, manual, lightweight experience. And the demand will extend to more common cars like the production Ferraris, 911s, and even modern v8 muscle cars, in the way that there's currently huge demand the aforementioned "outdated" cars

 

At some point you remove the V8 and replace it with a bunch of electromotors and batteries. Very unfortunate for some, but in 40 years from now people think back about ICEs and compare in the same way as we see steam-engines now. Mid engine cars are actually pretty easy candidates for EV conversion.

 

Actually, that future will never occur. They will instead dream of the days when personal freedom was allowed and there will be stories you can drive anywhere you wanted, whenever you wanted with whomever you wanted...those will be the lost experiences...

It would take more than 100+ years to just replace the existing worldwide fleet of cars and light trucks with fullEV versions. However, that will not be possible, there is no where near sufficient battery manufacturing capacity. So, not only will the worldwide fleet not be replaceable, annual production will never reach current levels (about 90 million units per year). Even if you go back 20 years, when about 60 million units (worldwide) were made annually, there is no chance of that many fullEVs being made on an annual basis...
https://www.statista.com/statistics/262747/worldwide-automobile-production-since-2000/

that level will simply never be reached.

Do you realize Tesla total production for all years it has been in business is less than 2 million? And now Teslas "big year" is 500,000 units? I mention Tesla because they are already having problems scaling battery production to higher levels.
https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3972712/Tesla-short-of-battery-cells-faces-difficulties-scaling-up-production.html
https://electrek.co/2021/01/29/tesla-electric-van-coming-batteries/

And, of note, fullEV long haul trucks do not make sense, as a lot of roadways have maximum load limits, because the batteries are so heavy the carrying capacity of products being transported is greatly reduced, making such trucks uneconomical.

In 10 years, any car company selling only fullEVs will be lucky to maintain 50% of the annual production capacity they currently have with ICE-only vehicles.

It is at this point I always remember, the ultimate objective of the EU's plan is to stop personal transport, reducing the population to walking, biking and public transport only:

https://ecf.com/sites/ecf.com/files/civicrm/persist/contribute/images/Strategy Sustainable and Smart Mobility_Joint letter.pdf

https://www.eea.europa.eu/highlights/walking-cycling-and-public-transport

https://www.polisnetwork.eu/news/polis-signs-letter-calling-for-improvements-in-walking-cycling-and-public-transport/

 

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You are an FChat gem!

 

You are an FChat moron!

 

I used to be a nay sayer as far EVs were concerned. That changed after picking up my 1st EV, Model S Plaid. The car in phenomenal, with speed which is down right scary! Having traded my E63s for it, I was expecting to be underwhelmed, but I was pleasantly surprised. It’s hard to argue with the tech, speed and comfort in a usable daily driver. And did I mention the acceleration, wow.

 

Can you elaborate, I tried to substantiate my posting with credible links, maybe I missed one, I will be happy to fine tune.

 

Wow. Goodbye Todd.

 

Attacking another user. 2-day site ban.

 

I agree with this statement but also feel there may be an expiration date on how long gasoline only cars will continue to be desirable to any where near as large of a market as there is now.

Is it 5-10-20-30 years when this happens?

There will come a point where young people only used to electric vehicles who have no emotional connection to the sound of a 9000 rpm ICE will simply find them noisy annoying cars.

Another concern that may come sooner than the above mentioned generational shift are municipalities that ban ICE cars from travel on their roads due to noise and pollution concerns. Fuel costs or availability could also become an issue.

I think we are reasonably safe for another 7-10 years but things could change very rapidly after that with all of the federal mandates and commitments to go electric from nearly all car manufacturers.

 

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The overall problem is fullEV (only battery powered) cannot be produced in sufficient quantities to replace all ICE currently in-use and what is annually produced. Once that realization occurs, in places like USA full ICE production will either restart or, my belief, will simply continue as it never totally disappeared. However, places like the EU/Schengen Zone, it will be vastly different, but, how different will depend on how the populations react to the situation. So many other issues contemporaneously occurring in the EU will also change the dynamics quite a lot.

As for "pollution concerns", that's also "rumbling" for fullEV (brakes,tires, road dust, all exists for for fullEV and EU is currently working on a plan to restrict)...I am thinking the EU is going to get really serious about making privately owned transport vehicles unobtanium...

Fuel as in gasoline/diesel will continue to be available forever, reference the plastics industry, jet travel, most sea going vessels, etc...

(I did not include a single reference link, if any are needed, let me know)

 

Hmmm…What about the sound and the emotion? Oh yes, I forgot, they are nonexistent.

I too have am lucky to have a 2019 E. 63s. Best car I’ve ever owned. Hands-down. No matter how fast the plaid, I can’t even imagine putting them in the same sentence. To each their own. Be safe


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No need for a link as I see all your point.
However prestige ICE cars will behave differently than the market for mass produced vehicles.
If not enough EV cars are able to be produced to replace ICE vehicles it will be interesting to see how both the market and governments react (likely in a conflict).
You are right that pollutants than CO2 will be restricted as time goes on with the EU probably leading the way. Witness existing GPF requirements.
Also agree that petroleum products have no end in sight however the cost of a gallon of gas could become very expensive through new taxes etcetera.

 

Yes, back on topic of prestige / exotic cars, I think there will be a market for fullEV, I do believe it will be a smaller market than exists now for ICE-only (for those same vehicles). I am excluding hybrids because they appear to be a short term aberration (less than 5 year overlap with fullEV). I presume the existing ICE-only (and maybe hybrid+ICE only because they are not fullEV) pricing will hold strong values forever and generally increase each year.