[MEDIA]
O.K, reporting back, spent a few hours on the DREES statistics, which are the most comprehensive. Seems indeed I got a few concepts wrong, but rehearsing was actually useful. (DREES = Direction de la Recherche, des Etudes, de l’Evaluation et des Statistiques) https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direction_de_la_Recherche,_des_%C3%89tudes,_de_l%27%C3%89valuation_et_des_Statistiques The full study for the period June 1st to July 11, 2021 states clearly that, among 100 deaths, 78 are unvaccinated persons, 11 « partially vaccinated » (= one dose), 11 « fully vaccinated » (= two doses) ; unvaccinated persons were 85% of the numbers in I.C.U https://solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/2021-07-23_-_sivic-sidep-vacsi_premiers_resultats_-_drees-2.pdf Starting this autumn, the DREES does not give these figures anymore, as the number of vaccinated has grown much bigger (= above 70%) than the number of unvaccinated, therefore the comparison by sheer percentage of deaths is no more significant ; they give the risk of death per million for a sample of the two populations (= deaths among one million unvaccinated vs deaths among one million vaccinated), which was nine times bigger for the unvaccinated (this is where I got confused...) Communiqué at the end of October : « there is nine times more deaths among the unvaccinated than among the vaccinated » (= deaths for a comparable sample, i.e, per million of population): [« Il y a donc environ 9 fois plus de décès chez les personnes non vaccinées que chez les personnes complètement vaccinées à taille de population comparable durant la période considérée. »] https://drees.solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/communique-de-presse/neuf-fois-plus-dentrees-en-soins-critiques-parmi-les-personnes-non-vaccinees I understand the figures for the last weeks are not yet available, but some source say that it is still "about the same". The numbers I have found for January are 7,2 deaths per million unvaccinated against 0,95 per million for the vaccinated...but, and this was quite a surprise for me : this figure of 0,95 is actually including « 10 to 15% » of persons pretending to be vaccinated, but who were in fact not ; that is, individuals with a false vaccination certificate (the apex of stupidity for me). I knew there were some (yesterday for instance, a network of people fabricating and selling false certificates was cracked by the Police) but I would not have imagined that they were so numerous. There isn’t any accepted figure about the percentage of vaccinated and unvaccinated persons for 100 deaths in January, but it might be 60/40, that is 60 vaccinated against 40 unvaccinated (this is where I got confused with the nine times more death risk for the unvaccinated), but considering that the group of unvaccinated is 20% of the population, the proportion of unvaccinated dying from Covid is actually indeed much higher. Hope it helps. Reading the DREES publications is certainly interesting. A late interesting information yesterday was that "Delta" accounts now for 2% of the infections; but 2% of the 366.500 average daily infections is still 7.300. Rgds
Sorry for your loss, Steve... On your "time to get back to some form of normality", well...just a snippet of information here; actually, I have no opinion on the matter, just to show what is happening "up over"...(Oh well: yes I do have an opinion: as for France, I think it is too early to lift the protection measures, the contaminations figures are still staggering) https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/26/as-omicron-fears-subside-europe-starts-to-reopen Rgds
This is helpful, yes! I appreciate your thoughtful approach and thank you for taking the time. It's really easy to overlook whether a table/chart is absolute numbers or rates, so no worries at all there. June to July was definitely Delta, so those figures won't apply going forward now that Omicron is 99% of cases. Vaccine efficacy also appears to wane over time. As you've noted, January would certainly be more relevant. I'd not heard before that people who falsify vaccination certificates are being included in the totals for vaccinated. Why wouldn't they simply count them as unvaccinated, or are they estimating the number of liars? Were you able to locate the methodology that DREES uses? It's important to know how they're defining and counting things, especially if you're going to even try to compare them to figures from other sources.
Well, trying not to hi-jack the Australian thread with french matters...I'll see what I can find about the DREES methodology. As for the "false vaccination certificates", for the time being the extent of the phenomenon is still new to me and has surprised me quite a lot. I need a bit of time to research that. As written in my previous post, I knew about the forging of "false certificates", as we read here and there about people being charged with forging the certificate, those who are selling these, those who are using these (the penalty, by the way, is quite severe in France for "faux et usage de faux" - forging and using false documents -) but I wouldn't have imagined that people could enter hospitals or ICUs pretending to be vaccinated when they actually aren't. So far, I've heard only about one case, mentioned by the press a few weeks ago, but that seemed so stupid to do (= the women's health has deteriorated rapidly so she arrived straight in an ICU, which was overloaded as most are these days, and the Doctors, been told she was "vaccinated", started a therapy adapted for vaccinated people, only to discover to their surprise that it has no effect, then that she wasn't vaccinated, but it was too late...stupidity kills) that I couldn't have imagined that it represented a sizeable percentage. As it is new to me, I don't know how and when they are registered, accounted for, etc...will look into this during the week-end, but in the meantime, out with french matters and leaving the thread to australian maters for the time being. Rgds
Funny enough, my brother has a (legitimate) stack of blank vaccination cards. I do understand why someone would lie to get into a theater or mall or something. I cannot fathom why anyone would lie to their doctor about anything, unless of course their wife was in the room.
For anyone whom hasn't heard Joe Rogan, let me assure you he's very good, and anything he's said about COVID and/or vaccinations is a very minor part of his podcast. Cya Neil! OLIO Sig www.pless.com.au/mechanics.htm
If I needed listen to Spotify I'd probably be listening to music not someone talking. Luckily I have about 3000 songs on my phone so I'm sorted That said I do like Neils work, Dad used to play it when I was a young fella!!
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@kerrari assures us that the perspective of an outsider is unique and valuable, and often sees things that insiders can't because they're too close to the problem. What do you think?
