Starting to see a lot more cars on the market

I think there is a pause in the market for sure, a lot of questions on future growth prospects and interest rates. However, I think the pause will be temporary and prices will continue to go much higher after this odd phase we are in, maybe it lasts a year?

 

I think if the current economic conditions continue to play out, all those retirees might be selling some toys to clean up their portfolios. Might be able to get that 458!

 

A 6k resale red gated modena just sold for $203,360 on BAT. Market is still hot.

 

The market will always be hot for low miles, 'BEST' of type. (which that car was > 5k, gated)

https://bringatrailer.com/listing/2003-ferrari-360-modena-23/
https://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/threads/2003-ferrari-360-modena-gated-red-black-only-4k-miles-excellent-condition.645353/

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This recent sale would be more typical of type. (50% discount over 'BEST' )
> not to mention, I think we're just past the peak of the recent frenzy. People saw the crazy prices ALL cars were getting and tried to jump in. Now there is a glut/pullback. IMHO

5/27/22
1999 Ferrari 360 Modena F1
Miles: 18,450
Price: $97,000

https://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/threads/1999-ferrari-360-modena-f1-w-18k-miles-blu-pozzi.659980/

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Okay honest question here. That 360 did what, 300 miles per year on average for 20 years? That meant it likely sat for months or even years without ever running. I dunno about cars, but in the airplane world, that would be a major red flag. With inactivity like that, you get corrosion inside the cylinders, spalling/pitting on the cams and cam lobes, plus deteriorated hoses, etc etc. Car engines aren't that different from aircraft piston engines. So aren't buyers concerned about these issues? If I bought an aircraft with that low usage, I'd basically budget in a full engine replacement after purchase. But in the car world, these ultra low mileage examples bring top dollar.

What am I missing?

 

I don't think that an engine replacement would be in order for a car that only did 300 miles/yr. If stored properly (and I assume this car was) you will still have issues from lack of use pop up, but I wouldn't panic and consider a complete overhaul. I would think that if someone was willing to pay 200k for a 6k mile car, then they aren't likely to daily drive it instead the car will probably just end up sitting in a different garage on the same outdated tires.
Drivers buy driver cars, collectors buy collector cars.

 

Yup, totally agree on the "collector car vs. driver car" differentiation. I guess my question is, mechanically speaking, aircraft piston engines are not very different from car engines (especially air-cooled car engines, since 99% of aircraft piston-engines are air-cooled.)

When you let an engine sit for long periods of time, oil will drain off the cylinder walls. That, combined with the moisture in the ambient air, opens them up to corrosion. Same goes for the cam and lifters. Then when the engine is started, the lack of a protective oil film causes instant wear, lifter spalling, and so on. The only way around this is to properly preserve the engine: change the oil with preservative oil, replace the spark plugs with dehydrator plugs, and so on. Very few people actually bother with this, and I'm betting that on most of these 'collector' cars, this is almost never done.

When doing an aircraft prepurchase inspection, almost the first thing you do is borescope all the cylinders to see if there's any rust inside. You also always do compression checks on all cylinders. With aircraft that have sat for a long time, you need to look at the cam and lifters too, because replacing a cam requires splitting the engine ($$$$$). Actually getting a look at the cam often requires removing a cylinder ($$, but a lot less than unwittingly buying an engine with a bad cam.)

Tires can be easily replaced, but then there are the various rubber parts throughout the airplane -- hoses, grommets, etc etc -- that also turn brittle and fail with age. Some of those are $$$ to replace.

So I guess my question is — why are car engines any different?

 

This possibly?

 

We all new it was coming, so thats good news, I hope all here that are looking find steals left and right !!

Thank you

 

They aren't, except that they're sitting safely on the ground. I've said before that the most reliable and trouble-free car is the one that gets used regularly and maintained by the book.

It seems to me that most of the buying of expensive cars lately has been by non-car people who assume that a 5k-mile car is the same as a 30k-mile car, only in better cosmetic condition and less "used up". I can't think of any other reason why such an enormous premium would be paid for a car that's been sitting unused, except in the case of a collector car who's life is spent surrounded by velvet ropes in a room that's nicer than my living room.

I only see a very slight softening in the market for high end cars so far, but I expect it will continue. And I also think that a lot of the expensive cars being bought with home equity loans and stock gains are going to be going back on the market before long, as the uninformed buyers soon discover what they've gotten themselves into.

 

The low odometer premium tends to go away with classic cars, which is why I gravitate to those.

However, there was a 1973 Porsche 911 on display at the local AD, with ridiculously low miles, and it spent the days leaking oil onto a tray on the floor.

3,500 miles and it needs the engine refurbished anyway, after 49 years of non-enjoyment by anybody.



Sent from my iPad using FerrariChat.com mobile app

 

My guess is the market will continue to go up for these cars, unless it goes down. Or stays about the same.

 

I fully agree with you, maybe...

 

CNBC is hiring analysts, you'd be perfect

 

This.. i would never buy an older low milage car... asking for an exercise in punishment. Think about it.. a 20 year old car with a few thousand miles... whats that a handful of fuel tanks total... ugh a fuel system disaster. Deteriorating seals hoses you name it. The smart buyer goes for the impeccably maintained high milage unit with the associated thick binder of upkeep where it was driven regularly, and loved. These complex machines dont like to sit. Top that with replacement part scarcity... preservation is key and that requires use.

 

I sure hope the 458 market gets back to sub-$200k but that seems like a pipe dream at the moment.

 

What's especially bad this day and age is ethanol in the fuel, which is on a mission to destroy all of the rubber bits in the fuel system. Nasty stuff ethanol, watch those fuel lines.

 

Check out marinas for non-corn gas.

 

To gauge the car market all you gotta do is watch housing. Expensive toys fluctuate it seems at the same rate. So far up here in the GTA we have seen a 20% dump..and less sales. Exotic cars have also sat much longer then usual...

 

I have been paying attention to Roma's lately, and they have for sure been staying on the market longer.

Anything above $30k over msrp doesn't seem to move at all, and now that number seems to be slowly dropping under $30k, depending on the msrp.

Most cars with msrps above $330k or so, are selling at msrp, even with very low mileage.

This is the only model I have been paying attention too, but you can tell the market for them is softening, even though still crazy.