is the bubble due to burst?

Why so quiet @Bradwilliams and @Super Dave?

You both said in this thread (9+ years) the bubble is gonna, will, about, surley, POP!

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Don't cha love the internet is FOREVER?

Some folks need to be reminded that every once in a while.

Of course, when the inevitable course correction does happen, both will be here ready to say "I told you so!" (just off a decade)

Life is often stranger than fiction, hard to believe folks have the chutzpah to call things 10 years off, yet I bet it will come.

 

Paul, SuperDave went quiet years ago. Maybe it’s time for you to let go? As you said it’s been years…

 

Has it occurred to any of us that perhaps we are not looking at a bubble at all? Yes, prices of "collectibles" have been rising, whether Ferraris or Picassos or Breguets, rare books or vintage wine collections. With the exception of extremely rare cars that inevitably attract the attention of auto collecting billionaires (there are 2,668 billionaires in the world!). When two of them clash, the hammer price can rise to a ridiculous number because both bidders have to own that car and they are both indifferent to the final number).

Apart from that, prices have not been sky-rocketing, they've been rising steadily but rather gently. And that, I rather believe, is a result of the fact that people of means, i.e. those who have excesses of disposable income and, indeed, personal or family wealth whether earned or inherited, have recognized that their dollars are slowly eroding, not plummeting, in value. Cash, beyond what is needed for reasonable everyday living, everyday including second homes and leisure travel, is not a good store of value exactly because it is in steady decline. Exotic car values, haven't spiked, they've been steadily rising since the automobile 'depression' of the late 1980s and early 1990s. Similarly the prices of 'pre-owned' Breguet, A. Lange und Sohne and Patek Philippe watches have been gently but steadily rising for years. And this will continue since the U S government, just like those of Great Britain, France, Germany, Japan, et al. with their currencies, cannot turn off the spigot, they cannot stop "printing" money by "borrowing" non-existent dollars, pounds, euros and yen "from the Treasury".

At which point I'm inclined to ask Marcel Massini what the Swiss government is doing as that government has always seemed to manage its francs very well.

 

I remember around 1968. 100 chf have been around 92 DM ( german mark ) - € 47 - US $ 23,60
in 1972 for 100 CHF you got 83 DM - € 42,70 - US $ 26,50
in 1990 you got 116 DM - € 59,30 - US $ 77,50
in 1999 you got 174 DM - € 88,95 - US $ 66,50
in 2002 you got 133 DM - € 68,00 - US $ 64,50
in 2010 you got 140 DM - € 71,60 - US $ 96,50
now you would get 193 DM - € 98,70 - US $ 108,20
so you see the CHF is not so strong anymore

 

Romano, that is shocking. I have not visited Schweiz in many years. What your figures show is just how strong/powerful has become the Swiss franc. Especially after 1971-72 when Pres Nixon "closed" the gold window and the U S dollar was no longer convertible into gold. My wife and I were in Nairobi, Kenya, the morning that occurred, scheduled for an eight-day Land-Rover visit to the Serengeti and the Ngorogoro Crater. After breakfast we went to the desk at the Norfolk Hotel to cash travelers checks. "Sorry, we cannot accept U S dollars!" No money! Fortunately, the hotel did cash - in Kenya shillings - enough for us to 'survive'.

 

Hagerty has a new article out updating the Ferrari market and it should probably be posted here to update this "Bubble" thread. Lots of interesting "experts" comments. This graphic is a good overview of what is/was happening over the last 50 years:

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https://insider.hagerty.com/trends/the-oral-history-of-the-ferrari-bubble/?utm_source=SFMC&utm_medium=email&utm_content=MED_UN_NA_EML_UN_SaturdayRoadTrip&hashed_email=8e43f6a5abf43ff70e0771781e4993de6c08fd1510eadb1414b4ce6b84c34e12

 

Terribly written article - doesnt even address 2009

 

hmmm...bubble burst yet? It's been nearly 10 years, just wanted to check-in.

 

Bubble shmubble. I have been collecting cars from Daytonas to Lussos to whatever. A Lusso (mine) sold at auction for 2.2m. I bought it for way less. Am I financial genius? I think not. All the analytics that have been going on here are no different than the the stock market gurus. They don't know jack %$#*@ either. You can't tie the value or the types of cars to anything. This is no more than a frenzy and when it drops hold on to your hats. The relatively massive amount of money I have made has been good reason and luck. Mostly luck. I have been on this thread for years and I hear the same nonsensical reasoning about what and where cars will go. The market is fickle. Forget the analytics. If you realize this you will be much the wiser. Purchase a Ferrari because you love it. And if you made a wise choice when you sell it enjoy the rewards. Should you buy or sell a Ferrari now? Who has the crystal ball?

 

The OP was asking ,in 2013, if a Dino @ $400K is sustainable ...maybe the bar should now be raised a tad after the recent C&F sales @ $850K +?

 

Patience! Some bubbles are bigger than others!

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Good advice, but we're only 1 of 2 - get back to me when we're 2 of 2.

Sound good?

 

Don't get me wrong, I think we're in a 'bubble of everything.' I'm not a perma-bull.


I do enjoy pointing out 'perma-bears.' Especially those that have no 'skin in the game.'

 

If you read Sports Car Magazine, an early camera just brought $15 Million.
As has been said before, perhaps it is time to close this thread.

Ken Goldman

 

at this point lets leave it open and check in annually until f40s are back to $400k and dinos at $90

 

you dream from a time machine?

 

i dont think it ever will

 

I think the 410 sport that traded at low estimate , was actually a loss of 1m from prior sale … market small and
Those that bid years ago probably found something else …
Others at auction brought big numbers


Sent from my iPad using FerrariChat

 

The 410 Sport had been shopped around for at least a couple of years prior to crossing the block. A lot of potential buyers had already heard of the car and when it was announced by RM, those potential buyers would have realized no one else "took the bait".

When there isn't a known market, the implied illiquidity and the notion that the buyer is the 'one guy that didn't pass' can have a very damaging effect on something unique like a 410.

That said, it's an amazing car that probably could have achieved a better result had it been handled differently. It deserved better. Say what you will about his business, but DM is a good buyer and I think time will prove this to be a good buy.

 

https://bid.richmondauctions.com/lots/view/4-6KQV2G/incredible-nos-48-musgo-gasoline-michigans-mile-maker-double-sided-porcelain-sign-tac-95-925


I know it’s not a car it’s just memorabilia but…………………



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I mean... of all the things to spend $1.35MM on.

Man...

 

Mmm... I wonder how hard it would be to replicate that?

 

Apparently not that difficult. Here's one for 0.012% of the cost.

https://www.etsy.com/listing/1019278943/vintage-musgo-gasoline-embossed-metal?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=musgo+gasoline&ref=sc_gallery-1-1&plkey=8370ff6bdae0dd1236f1a2cbe002e27c586a292d%3A1019278943