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2004 and 2008 Election Predictions

Discussion in 'Other Off Topic Forum' started by GuardsRed, Dec 1, 2003.

  1. GuardsRed

    GuardsRed Karting

    Nov 4, 2003
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    Sam
    Warning: These are opinions...

    2004:

    Bush v Dean. The winner will be Bush simply due to the rapidly recovering economy. It was genius to put into place tax cuts (which really don't do much economically speaking) to coincide with a natural return of an improving business cycle. In another 10 months the economy will be buzzing along nicely. Around the spring, a significant find of WMD will be uncovered in Iraq or Saddam will be killed or Bin Laden will be killed. I would bet that we know where the WMD's are (if they exist) and where basically both of these killers are...it is all about timing...flush out the crazy liberals, let them take their cheap shots and then shut them up with victory...

    2008:

    Hellary (Spawn of Satan aka The Devil) Clinton v. Rudy:

    This will be a tough one. Assuming that Bush's second term goes well Rudy will have a good chance of crushing the Devil. However, the Devil has a lot of fans out there for some unknown reason which could swing this vote and elect the first Woman to the Presidency. If that happens, prepare yourselves for huge corporate taxes, massive social programs (which will drain the treasury and our pockets), gay marriage, no guns, ban on SUV's, higher minimum wage, rent controls...all spells disaster for one of the worlds most significant civilizations. God help us if another Saddam figure appears during this time and the Devil is running the show. We will debate him to death.

    2012: GOP: Condi Rice?

    What says the learned board?
     
  2. WILLIAM H

    WILLIAM H Three Time F1 World Champ

    Nov 1, 2003
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    2004 Bush had better put Saddam or Bin Laden on display or he may get the Toss, 1 or both of them may already be in Guantanamo awaiting a fortuitous moment for the Bush campaign. I would love to see Assamas face if he realizes he is used to help Bush win an election :)

    On the economy Bush & the tax cut are definatley helping a lot. The huge deficit with China is worrying though.

    If HELLary wins I'm moving back to Buenos Aires until she's is gone
     
  3. Stickanddice

    Stickanddice Formula 3

    Nov 2, 2002
    2,473
    Spawn of the Devil? HAHAHAHA!!

    That's a bit harsh, but if she wins I'm making my next trip to Asia/Europe a little longer...say...4 years? :)

    Cheers
     
  4. ART360

    ART360 Guest

    I love to read stuff like this. Anybody read Moore's new book? What happened to my country Dude. Facts figures, etc. Thinks that the right is so verbal because they know their wrong. Any comments?

    Moore does cite fact after fact over those issues, and lo and behold, even lists where he got the cite from (I'd like to see one right wing author do the same). He thinks Oprah should be our next president, and in my humble opinion, what an improvement over what we have now!

    the deficit is what is now looming on the horizon. It's stimulation made indeed get Bush elected. It will also provide the food for the next recession, which will be sooner rather than later, unless we can get the deficit under control. Despite what they are saying, you can't spend more than what you earn forever.

    If I had to bet, Bush gets relected (Hillary isn't running this year, but may run in 08), and sometime in his next term, the economy goes into the toilet. No one to blame, conservatives control all ends of the government, and can't lay blame on anyone else. Rising interest rates will sooner, or later bring down the house. Deficits of this size, sooner, or later will raise the interest rates. Those rising rates will kill a recovery sooner rather than later.

    Art
     
  5. Nibblesworth

    Nibblesworth Formula 3
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    Hillary may well be pres in 08, but don't expect the sweeping changes that she may want to occur.

    Keep in mind that there is a good chance that Republicans will still control the House and the Senate. Good luck flying socialized medicine and massive corporate taxes through!

    As for the doomed economy that Art is predicting...well, we'll have to wait and see. The economy tanked in 2000 because billions were lost in the stock market as a result of the internet bubble (ten times larger than it should have been) blowing up. Three years later, the economy has mended itself back up, not becaue Bush is an economic genius, but because it is the natural flow of the economy.

    So we're on a boom now, which will probably last around 6 years before we plateau, which will last around a year, and then tank for two years. That gives us good times until 2009, so-so times until 2010, and 2011 and 2012 will be a heartache. Ce la vie! (I don't know french, that's probably spelled wrong).


    My predictions? Bush/Gore in '04. '06 will see one house of Gov go to the dems, and 08 will be a total toss up in terms of who goes to the big house. But I truly doubt Hillary will make the list - too many people dislike her politics. There's even a chance that the dems won't nominate her because of uncertainty over her taking the election. A week or so ago, the "Go Hillary" campaign held a rally on capital hill trying to convince her to run in 04. Six people showed up.....
     
  6. GuardsRed

    GuardsRed Karting

    Nov 4, 2003
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    Michael Moore? ROFLMAO! You are so funny. This is hilarious. Oh, oh and the best part of your post was when you wrote that conservatives don't cite sources...that is such as perfect tounge in cheek comment! Such a liberal misguided, uninformed, knee-jerk, parrot kind of remark. It was perfect! You are too funny!
     
  7. Napolis

    Napolis Three Time F1 World Champ
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    Art
    Before you make any more econ. predictions you may want to remember how your last one turned out. I wouldn't start shorting just yet...
     
  8. GuardsRed

    GuardsRed Karting

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    Shorting a bond index may be a decent idea...I bet we will see 150 basis points over the next two years.

    As far as deficit spending being the cause for a recession...not a chance. Recessions (and the resulting loss of tax revenue) causes deficits (and overspending by BOTH parties). Recessions are a natural part of the business cycle. The free market system adjusts to changing technology (production impacting) and other forces. It is self-correcting. Displaced workers must re-train themselves...just a fact of life. BTDT.
     
  9. ART360

    ART360 Guest

    I shouldn't predict economic issues, but, large deficits can and do ultimatetly lead to recessions:

    1. Cause a larger demand for money, which in turn drives up interest rates, and if the demand gets high enough

    2. Rates rise, and those sections of the econony which need money, have increased costs, and can and sometimes does lead to a cut back on spending, leading to

    3. a business slow down.

    When those things happen in large quantities, a recession can and does occur. Witness Johnson, Nixon, Carter (in that order) with the then large deficits, and that in turn lead to high interest (15% prime rate, as I recall, maybe higher). I may be wrong, but I think we're starting down that same path here. Someone like Jon could probably give us a more detailed and specific analysis about this, but those are my thoughts.

    What I really complained about was the idiotic demonizing of Hillary Clinton by the conservatives. Calling her names, etc, and other signs of disrespect. Yet they get all huffy, when we call the current President a Liar, when indeed we have specific statements of his that were untrue, and specific information that he knew better before making the statements.

    Having been in the military, as an enlisted man, I have my own impressions of the officer class, and they aren't good.

    Art
     
  10. GuardsRed

    GuardsRed Karting

    Nov 4, 2003
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    Sam

    Demand for money? By whom? The government? They bridge budget deficits by selling treasuries which DECREASE the supply of money. There are many things that drive the demand for dollars such as exchange rate and interest rates home and abroad. When jobs are created, such as what is occuring currently, inflation will follow due to demand for goods and services (supply and demand curve). Recessions are again normal throughout a business cycle. When exceptionally high inflation occurs such as the times that you specified, unique circumstances lead to such rates.

    I am not trying to insult you, but you should read Basic Economics by Thomas Sowell.

    As far as your personal attack on me being an officer and your prior enlisted status, well, I don't know what happend during your enlisted career, but during my ENLISTED career (HM for 8 years) prior to a commission, I met some great folks and some bad ones on both sides of the fence.
     
  11. Napolis

    Napolis Three Time F1 World Champ
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    Lets get specific as we did last time.
    Hillary will never be pres.
    Bush will be reelected.
    The tax cuts have worked.
    There should be more tax cuts for the lower income brackets.
    The deficit is not as the Dems predicted 450+ It's 370 and the expanding econ. will lower it futher.
    Interest rates will not be raised for the next 9 months.
    Inflation is not nor will become a problem for years.
    Job growth will continue.
    Stocks are at the moment overvalued but won't go down much and will rise in 04.
    It's not the time to buy bonds.
     
  12. GuardsRed

    GuardsRed Karting

    Nov 4, 2003
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    1. True
    2. True
    3. True
    4. False...they don't pay taxes in the first place so why should they get your taxes?
    5. True
    6. Probably true
    7. False. Inflation won't be a "problem" but will rise. Fed will do a nice job of management.
    8. True (which will fuel slight increases in inflation)
    9. Depends on your valuation model
    10. True...it is time to short bond indexes. Let duration and convexity work for you!
     
  13. Napolis

    Napolis Three Time F1 World Champ
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    4. People in lower income brackets by def. pay taxes. They should pay less IMHO so that they and their children can move along with hope which will keep them from desparation and coming after the rest of us with pitchforks.
    7. Won't be a problem speaks for it's self.
    9. Yhoo@129,ebay@93,amzn@inf.(PE)
     
  14. GuardsRed

    GuardsRed Karting

    Nov 4, 2003
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    Sam
    The highest 50% of income earners paid 93.6% of all federal personal income tax. The lower 50% paid only 6.4%. So yeah, lets give the lower 50% more of the tax money I earned and subsequently paid to the treasury. That makes sense. So, by definition, they do indeed pay taxes (sales, use, local, etc) but net at zero WRT federal taxes since they have all or almost all of their federal income tax refunded. They have not earned YOUR money so why are they getting YOUR money refunded to them? This is a nice social program and appeals to the lower 50% for sure, but it is bad policy.

    If our desire is for their children to move out of poverty, the mentality and culture to do so starts at home. Tax refunds are not going to do it. Now, if you propose that we increase funding for college educations so that poorer folks can afford to send their kids to school, I would be all for that. I simply object to what amounts to a direct transfer payment of my earned income to somebody else who then choses to spend it they way they see fit. Funding something specific, with specific, measurable results which improves their lives culturally, educationally and socially I can vote for.
     
  15. Napolis

    Napolis Three Time F1 World Champ
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    There are no easy answers to many of these problems but personally I think a very robust econ. can only help. I would like to see the massive stimulus cont.
     
  16. Stickanddice

    Stickanddice Formula 3

    Nov 2, 2002
    2,473
    All I know is that if Hillary becomes President I'm leaving and taking my money with me and come back when the dust settles. I'd take C. Rice over Hillary as the first woman President any day.

    I also think the economy is finally getting better. There are definite signs of vitality even in previously mismanaged and depressed portfolios.

    Cheers
     
  17. GuardsRed

    GuardsRed Karting

    Nov 4, 2003
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    Here here! Second that!!!
     
  18. Evolved

    Evolved F1 Veteran

    Nov 5, 2003
    8,206
    Pittsburgh, PA
    Bush will get his mandate in 2004.
    Hilalry Clinton will run for President in 2008.

    She will most likely win.

    Real wages will continue to be stagnent or decline over the next decade as we continue to let the wall street journal dictate our economic and foreign policies. Sadly, while Wall Street will do well Main street will suffer. Everyone will be better off at the end of Bushes terms but the disparity between rich and poor will increase to the point where Hillary will walz into the white house with no trouble at all.

    Class warfare will be the battle of 2008 and republiicans will lose badly.
    Instead of cutting payroll taxes they are pushing capital gains cuts... The only thing that may save republicans is pandering to the elderly who vote in huge numbers.
     
  19. Nibblesworth

    Nibblesworth Formula 3
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    I highly doubt that she will win. I highly doubt she'll even be NOMINATED by the democratic party. She's just not a sure enough thing for the entire democratic party.

    If she runs, it'll be as an independant. And she'll get less of a vote than Perot got.

    Just my predicition, but there is only a tiny minority of people that *truly* wants her as pres. In 08, we'll see the dem that gets nomitated for 04 and loses, run as the democratic candidate in 08.

    Any takes on a gentleman's bet on this?
     
  20. bkaird1

    bkaird1 Karting

    Nov 7, 2003
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    Brad
    Guards,

    How was Basic Economics? I really enjoy reading Thomas Sowell's collumns and the book is on my must read list.

    Brad
     
  21. GuardsRed

    GuardsRed Karting

    Nov 4, 2003
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    Basic is a great read. He has a few other books out and the next one that I am ready to break open is Applied Economics. Yeah, I read his column as well. I especially like the random thoughts...read Larry Kudlow as well.
     
  22. Evolved

    Evolved F1 Veteran

    Nov 5, 2003
    8,206
    Pittsburgh, PA
    The Clintons run the democratic party. They are letting Dean run so that Hillary will appear as a level headed "savior" of the party when she runs in 20O8. Watch her voting record. She makes all the middle of the road popular choices every time. She voted for the war and all her trips are future photo ops to print in 2007. By 2008 our medical system will be such a mess that not only will "Hillarycare" seem viable but it will appear to lots of people, including doctors whose real wages are plummeting. Remember that your employeer doesn't want to be your health insurance provider. She will be waging her finger and going "I told you so in 1992 right back into the white house " With health care, class warefare and a middle of the road voting record she is a sure bet.

    Something else I found strange was that it is democrats and not republican lawmakers who are quietly gearing up for the return of the draft. There is nothing more they would love then to be able to promise to get rid of the draft that they created, but can easily blame on Bush.

    Article on draft boards.
    http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2003/11/03/draft/index_np.html

    I will have to decline on the friendly wager. I would like to honor the debt if I am wrong and it may be hard to find you in five years.

    I hope I am wrong. I really do.
     

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