812 Market Dynamics | Page 18 | FerrariChat

812 Market Dynamics

Discussion in 'F12/812' started by 1881, May 19, 2019.

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  1. PhilNotHill

    PhilNotHill Two Time F1 World Champ
    Owner

    Jul 3, 2006
    27,855
    Aspen CO 81611
    Full Name:
    FelipeNotMassa
    I find my 458 Spider scary sometimes. That's one of the things I like best about it.
     
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  2. dustman

    dustman F1 Veteran
    Rossa Subscribed

    Jun 12, 2007
    9,065
    W/O a doubt the v12's will depreciate.

    Who cares...enjoy!
     
  3. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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    Aug 22, 2002
    18,877
    Ha i hope to reach that level of wealth one day!
     
  4. dustman

    dustman F1 Veteran
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    Jun 12, 2007
    9,065
    With your garage? Come on!

    LOL
     
  5. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
    Rossa Subscribed

    Aug 22, 2002
    18,877
    Nope i fly commercial still
     
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  6. KenU

    KenU Formula Junior

    Oct 14, 2004
    543
    Planet Earth
    Full Name:
    Ken
    Exactly! Today, all in one day - my tailor of 25 years told me he has bone cancer and a friend told me his 32 year old nephew was just diagnosed with cancer. Life is too short and as I've stated previously I didn't buy the 812SF as an "investment" and could care less how much it depreciates. This particular Ferrari has exceeded in every way possible the physical and emotional "returns" that I could ever have imagined. If I have to pay $100k or more to experience this pleasure, so be it. I consider myself lucky to have such an opportunity. If people are concerned about losing money on a new high six figure car that they're considering buying they should walk away immediately. New regular production cars depreciate, period.
     
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  7. KenU

    KenU Formula Junior

    Oct 14, 2004
    543
    Planet Earth
    Full Name:
    Ken
    Maybe that's why :D
     
  8. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
    Rossa Subscribed

    Aug 22, 2002
    18,877
    Not sure i follow.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  9. KenU

    KenU Formula Junior

    Oct 14, 2004
    543
    Planet Earth
    Full Name:
    Ken
    Dustman said "with your car collection?" pointing to your impressive, very expensive car collection. You stated "I fly commercial" and I, kiddingly with a smiley face, said "maybe that's why" you fly commercial because you can only afford to fly commercial as a result of "your car collection".
     
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  10. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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    Aug 22, 2002
    18,877
    Ah yep for sure


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
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  11. roma1280

    roma1280 F1 Rookie
    Rossa Subscribed

    May 2, 2010
    4,220
    Palm Beach, Roma
    Just on cars.com there are 75 for sale and they don’t include the unadvertised ones. My local AD alone has 6 in the basement that aren’t on the market.

    https://www.cars.com/for-sale/searchresults.action/?dealerType=all&mdId=36604794&mkId=20014&page=1&perPage=100&rd=99999&searchSource=PAGINATION&sort=relevance&zc=10016
     
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  12. JTSE30

    JTSE30 F1 Rookie

    Oct 1, 2004
    3,251
    Austin TX
    Thank you, but, for me, that link shows 66 not 75. What is an "AD"? And, if those 6 (812s) in the basement are "not on the market" how exactly are they to be included in the current cars that are on the market?

    At this time I might agree to 80 total cars available including those Ferrari dealers are not able to advertise.
     
  13. roma1280

    roma1280 F1 Rookie
    Rossa Subscribed

    May 2, 2010
    4,220
    Palm Beach, Roma
    AD is authorized dealer. And the 6 would be on the market if there weren’t so many already available. Ok in terms of numbers whether it’s 80 or 200, the point is there is a ton of supply and nothing at all is selling right now. Any economist will tell you that these conditions are likely to lead to a material price drop in the not too distant future. According to my friend who has trying to sell his beautifully specced car for many months now, the clearing price is around $100k under list. Don’t shoot the messenger.
     
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  14. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
    Rossa Subscribed

    Aug 22, 2002
    18,877
    Just not enough asses (dollars) for all the seats
     
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  15. Hex

    Hex Karting

    May 1, 2009
    95
    I couldn’t agree more. My 812 is in for PPF and when it comes out my wife and I are going to rack up the mileage. This is one of the greatest cars ever. To hide it in a garage would be to miss the experience of relishing in its capabilities. Sure driving it will cost money but cost per mile (the most important metric as far as I’m concerned) goes down the more you drive it.
     
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  16. Thecadster

    Thecadster F1 Veteran
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    Apr 27, 2017
    6,734
    I don’t think any cars are selling right now. At any given time, I follow about 120+ cars on CarGurus, a mixture of SVJ, Performante, 812, F12, Speciale, 675LT, 720S, GT2 RS, GT3 RS, Ford GT, basically all the cars I like and cars that I have (812 and Performante) or tempted to add to the fleet. Keep in mind that I have selected the absolute most desirable specs as I am somewhat vanilla in my style interests. Exactly 9 sold in October. Even super nice heretofore “hot” cars are sitting. I keep waiting for the prices to adjust to the current demand level, but the sellers are demonstrating uncanny resolve.
     
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  17. JTSE30

    JTSE30 F1 Rookie

    Oct 1, 2004
    3,251
    Austin TX
    Thanks on AD, I was mostly curious where you actually saw 100 for sale in USA since that is quite higher than those publicly listed.

    Regarding those 6, if they are for sale, they should be put out for sale, right? Unless there is some lockup on them, just because there are many on the market does not seem to make sense why you would not list now unless you really are not wanting to sell now. Otherwise, if for sale, how can those be sold if no one knows about them?

    Prices have been dropping on some 812s where the seller is motivated, others are not dropping by much.

    Also, in a quite peculiar situation, the 812+GPF+ADAS is currently a 'great unknown' as to how it will effect the car's presence, so much so that 812 orders were being cancelled months before the 812GTS reveal (in the USA) and now all FD (Ferrari Dealers) have immediate or near immediate available 812 allocations. Yes, some of those orders were moved to the 812GTS but many were simply cancelled. Remember the F8 reveal in March? Remember the absolutely pathetic sounds made by the F8 in so many videos, that was the first taste of GPF on a Ferrari after Ferrari did their best to make it sound good. Now there will be a sound difference when using GPF on turbo cars vs. N.A. cars as the former re-uses exhaust gases which already reduces its sound. As of today, Ferrari has not let anyone hear the 812+GPF+ new sound regulations (that ironically the GPF will help the 812 to achieve compliance), even the 812GTS engine sound track on Ferrari's website is that of the 812 coupe (I specifically researched this).

    Point being, in the case of the 812, there is more uncertainty than ever before.

    From what I can find, there are fewer than 700 812s in the USA right now, could be as even lower, so there is not a true abundance of production for USA. There are many for sale, many are very plain, various shades of gray or black, missing critical options such suspension lift and carbon wheel, some have unusual interiors, etc.

    The market at the moment is definitely a buyer's, but, as realizations of what 812+GPF+ADAS+reduced sounds comes to reality, we'll see what happens, especially once the replacement model is announced sometime in 2021, if not a V12, could quickly turn into a seller's market...
     
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  18. JTSE30

    JTSE30 F1 Rookie

    Oct 1, 2004
    3,251
    Austin TX
    Further, based on what I can discern, less than 20% of USA production is for sale.

    And, at these price points, and the fact that you can still order an 812 the exact what you want (well, outside of GPF+ADAS) works against cars being quickly sold.

    Also, many have switched their order to the 812GTS and it is possible many are waiting to see what the 812VS becomes.

    These are also working against cars currently on the market being quickly sold.

    So, what could work in favor of 812s being more quickly sold?

    Over the next 2 years we'll see what plays out, if 812VS happens (as strongly rumored to be within the next 6 months), what will be required for an allocation? If having an 812 "in the garage" right now is required, you may see 812s disappear, until the 812VS are delivered. Also, this would be the same if an 812GTS allocation requires an 812, etc.

    And, the ultimate in favoring 812s being more quickly sold is this: if in 18 months or so when the 812 replacement is announced, if it is not a V12, if that happens then the 812 market will be reduced to about 30 cars for sale any one time or less forever more. Remembering there will quite likely be fewer than 1000 812 coupes ever made for USA.
     
  19. dustman

    dustman F1 Veteran
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    Jun 12, 2007
    9,065
    No chance sellers market.
     
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  20. roma1280

    roma1280 F1 Rookie
    Rossa Subscribed

    May 2, 2010
    4,220
    Palm Beach, Roma
    I’m not buying the “last V12” argument. Almost all 812 owners I know are trying to sell. When I had my 812 I thought it was a very uncomfortable grand tourer (my 575 far better), I drove it in the track and it handled terribly and for a spirited drive would always prefer the balance of a 488 (or 458) spider or a vintage car. When it left on the back of a truck I had no emotion whatsoever. There is something missing about the car and I can’t put my finger on it. Maybe others feel the same which is why so many are for sale.
    Will the 812 vs be more engaging and have that “I must have it” vibe? Who knows.
     
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  21. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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    Aug 22, 2002
    18,877
    funny you say this, last night i was thinking of getting 550/599 and another 458.

    only way for the 812 vs to be special is if they make 300 of them. at 750 we know what happens as per the tdf - wait 2 years and easy to buy and even if there is a premium you will be break even because to get one at msrp you wld have had to lost a couple hundred k in cars you had to buy to qualify. the game is dumber than its ever been and no longer enjoyable.
     
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  22. Hex

    Hex Karting

    May 1, 2009
    95
    #447 Hex, Nov 6, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 6, 2019
    Terrible on track compared to what, a track car? It’s not a track car. However having said that, a 7:27 on the Nuremberg Ring is hauling butt for a big V 12 GT car. Some of the best and fastest guys I know love this car. And with seven hundred cars in the USA and only really about 80 for sale, if that, most guys are keeping them as opposed to selling them. And, by the way, you sold yours because you didn’t like it, so what’s your interest in this thread.
     
  23. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
    Rossa Subscribed

    Aug 22, 2002
    18,877
    oh come on - ur gonna challenge roma who has cars up the ying yang and races in the ferrari challenge? yes opinions are like *******s but his certainly isn't blowing hot air - he has a basis for comments with substance...no one is saying its a crappy car - we are just saying for guys who have played the game a long time we arent staying long the 812s and the game has changed.
     
  24. roma1280

    roma1280 F1 Rookie
    Rossa Subscribed

    May 2, 2010
    4,220
    Palm Beach, Roma
    Terrible on track compared to anything, horrible understeer and a ring time 40 seconds slower than a 911 with 100 less horsepower.
    I didn’t sell it because I didn’t like it I sold it because my dealer wanted it back so he could resell it and I will be getting an 812 VS when it comes out. Sorry I didn’t realize you had to qualify to join a thread. At 50% of msrp maybe I’d buy one back.
     
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  25. Eilig

    Eilig F1 Rookie
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    Aug 31, 2001
    3,500
    Full Name:
    Cavallo
    Direct from the horse's mouth, Camilleri was asked this question on Monday's call:

    Q: Are you happy with residual values you are seeing in secondary markets for most cars?

    A: Uuuhhh, there are one or two markets where we have seen a bit of softeners, uh, however, relative to others, we still do well. Uh, so it remains a bit of a "watch out" in certain markets, uuuhh, but so far, again, no big orange or red lights.
     
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