812 Market Dynamics

Yes, Ferrari is struggling with 812 cancellations (any USA dealer has immediate or near immediate allocations ready, the Austin dealer car if ordered now would likely arrived by June)

1. Here's your handy roadmap to 812 US MSRP:
   
   2018
   $335,275
   
   then, for 2019, increase:
   +$22,827
   
   2019:
   $358,102
   
   then, for 2020, increase:
   +5600
   
   2020:
   $363,702
   
   none of the above does not include +$6,750 delivery fee, because it remains the same for each year

Thus, a 2019 listed at 379 is equivalent to a 2018 being listed at 356, definitely reasonable.

 

Speaking to two USA dealers, they are stacked out with 812 that they cannot sell. GTS one reason, the need to acquire "status" another , so many bought cars they did not want because they had to. They all want the next La F/Enzo etc. Many freaked out by depreciation, Ferrari now leading the world in epic depreciation . The business model has changed , Ferrari want new clients , and willing it seems to disregard their current clientele . They will have done their analysis and decided it does not matter on the overall scheme of things. The world changes . That is life.
Seems such a shame , one of the greatest Ferraris ever made is being treated like a leper though ! Best thing they can do to assist dealers and clients is announce that coupe production has ended. Grab an 812 bargain, as in a few years you will be kicking yourself . I love mine even if it loses a VW golf in value every week.

 

I agree, just bought this past Monday a fully loaded 03/18 with 7500 km MSRP EUR 423k for EUR 339k in Germany. I would have been eligable to order a 812 GTS according to my dealer but I decided to upgrade my F12 to a 812 SF first. IMHO there is just too much uncertainty on how this 812 GTS effectively will sound like when the mandatory GPF will be installed once delivered and the additional restrictions pending in the EU in respect to the new lower Dezibel allowance starting from 2021.
When I listen to the F8 Tributo I am already very skeptical about the potential impact the GPF will have on the 812 GTS......

The current 812 SF market opens great opportunities for positioning oneself with a great car without any unnecessary nannies before things start to get further restricted in the near future.
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I would think it's mostly about what he would offer me in trade on the 488. A consignment car usually has some room for negotiation. I bought my 488 on a consignment deal and I didn't pay the ask on it so I think there is wiggle room on the price there. Boardwalk has three 812s for sale right now and two F12s. The SA dealership has a 812 and a F12 so there is plenty of stock in the vicinity. That probably helps me on any of them I was looking at but there are tons of 488s available as well so that will hurt me on trade.

Ferrari going public has just made too much supply and also as mentioned, a lot of people bought these cars to get something else. I am not sure how much more I feel like taking a depreciation hit to get a different car. I took a $65k hit on the Cali T HS after only a year and I think the 488 would be $75k in a year and a half but it might be worse.

 

Congratulations! Loaded and great looking!

 

Well said. I love mine too. I mitigate the concern of depreciation by comforting myself with the thought that the masterpiece will be part of my permanent collection. Unlike many, I do see it as an end of an era car. Certainly the 812 VS will be superior, but sadly, I am so low on the Ferrari customer hierarchy that I was not able to secure even a Pista so a 812 VS is absolutely not in the cards. Between GPF, electrification, and various other wizardry/gadgetry, I don’t see a better car on the horizon in the 812 genre. Lastly, I know many continue to poo poo the looks, but the DRIVE is so magnificent, it barely matters. I can’t for the life of me imagine ever wanting to part with it.

 

Amazing example. Truly SPECtacular. Love the seats. Congrats. Need more pics!!!!

 

I do not have specifics on why 22K other than that they "simply could" and for 2019 the USA mandated rear view camera as standard equipment so that is small part of that increase, otherwise I think most of it was done as Ferrari's overall plan of moving prices higher. The 2020 increase was mostly for the ADAS (front camera for automated cruise control,etc) and eventual GPF inclusion.

As for the UK market, it really cannot be compared to anywhere else at all (brexit + being oversupplied with what would normally be 4 years of production squeezed into 2 years)

 

Thank you!
Here we go....

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Overall it is a good thing Ferrari decided to UNDER supply the USA (EU/China were oversupplied due to impending emissions regulations) otherwise USA supply of 812s would be nearly twice what it is now.

And, you are correct, the 812GTS is the new "status" attractant, however, the rules may include 812 in the garage to get an 812GTS allocation...if that were to occur the current 812 market will quickly diminish...no official word on that yet, maybe by March 2020.

Another reason orders started to be cancelled this past March forward was the rumor, and perhaps Ferrari has noticed and held off inclusion of GPF for USA as word is no GPF for USA for MY2020...I'll check on that more later today and update if I find anything news worthy.

As for Ferrari's current customer, it is wall street, not you and me, committed customers do not seem to matter anymore, and that I think is a terrible mistake.

The 812 is the best V12 ever made, so free revving, it is incredibly responsive, that alone puts it at the top of the list and it is a great deal! From my estimation fewer than 700 in the USA at this time...

 

Until the next one........

And sadly therein lies the problem.

 

This is excellent, not a problem. Getting more epic engines is a win.
Buying new is where some get to feeling bad.

 

Would love to see something even more epic, but, with the demand from EU for GPF to comply and new sound regulations (also EU) not to mention automatic nannies that will sorely interfere with driving enjoyment -- it will not ever be the same again...so, this literally is the end of the line for truly epic V12, even Audi (Lamborghini) appears to be having trouble in committing to a V12 future beyond track only cars and that may be where Ferrari's future V12s will be found (track only, if for no other reason than to keep it alive in case the future regulations allow without suffocation of its exhausts...)

 

the problem is many of the new clients are coming to the table being told these cars wont depreciate....in 3 years when they do the math on their trades there arent gonna be enough asses for each seat...

 

Well I guess that will be why there might be 4 turbo chargers on a V12 - the turbo's will for sure silence the engine, just like the 488/Cali T/Portofino/Lusso T?

 

Definitely a long term keeper!!

 

This is what the salesman told me yesterday and why he suggested I order one to suit myself. It would be here in less than a year and would not need a GPF.

 

Well, I went by there today (btw, they sold the MY2020 812 demo car, they had it less than 2 months and were not even trying to sell it!) and I double checked on the GPF status and it is as it was months ago...GPF could show up any time, there is no official factory statement either way, so, if you order you may want to carve out an exception if the car arrives with GPF then you will pass...or have the option to pass if it does not meet your sound expectations...

That RC MY2019 812 they have is a beauty...not sure if it has all the major options that you prefer...

 

Only if the block is downsized, perhaps even to 4L before you would even have room for such an arrangement...the EB110 did that with 3.5L V12 (+Quad Turbos)

Yes, turbos feed off the exhaust, naturally are quieter and then add GPFs and you'll have the sound of the F8, so expect "hot tubes" to pipe engine sounds directly into the cabin (like the F8)...and I wonder if the Roma will do that too...we'll see!

But, to be clear, for me, there is absolutely no way Ferrari will turbocharge the V12...

 

There is already resale carnage, with all the new models, it will get worse. They have destroyed a commercially viable model, and not understood the secondary market, that you need to survive., and what their retail network need to surviver. It is short term gain. Luca was right to resist. It is a self inflicted commercial suicide. Worse, when the vehicles themselves are exceptional. Brand destruction . In 5 years there will be articles " Ferrari.. where did it all go wrong "

 

Extremely True.

Almost every sales rep from many brands spins some story on how you will"never lose money or even make money" if you buy their car.

Ferrari is facing greater competition, increasing production, and increasing MSRP significantly. All these will make the "I'm gonna buy a standard V8 and drive it for free" notion a fantasy.

On the latter point, a 458 Speciale was usually around $340-$350K sticker, while an Italia around $290-$300k. Fast forward 4 years and most 488 Pista are around $500K MSRP, and the F8 Tributo is approaching $400K for typical spec.

 

The 812 Market will only get worse now that the Roma is out and is approx the same size but with rear seats and probably $100k cheaper. Yes, it's not a V12 but how many people will still want an 812 when they are :

Older car
Less practical
Probably not faster in the real world if at all
$100k+
And IMO much less pretty

The only thing the 812 has going for it vs a Roma is the NA engine.

Crazy what Ferrari is doing to its own customers. Kinda like what Mclaren has done for the past 7 years.

 

I would still want an 812. It has a V12.