812 Market Dynamics

In regards to consumer tangible goods, take paper, no one "trades in" used paper for new paper, correct? So all is new consumption...

However, paper mill strikes in Finland, staffing shortages, demand for cardboard from significant online order shipping demand, lack of new production have all worked to decrease the supply of paper (and increase cost of what is available)...more here:
https://marketrealist.com/p/why-is-there-a-paper-shortage/

so far as I can find, not a single item's price has litle to do with M2 or any money supply situation, has much more to do with what unfolded in the past 2 years to derail the means of production, shipments, etc.

for over 100 years, creditism has ruled the economic markets (search on Richard Duncan for some great research)...true enough, inflation happens, but the recent pricing trends from paper, to petroleum, to minerals have nothing specifically to do with increases in money supply but with constraints on production and distribution brought on by both increasing demand to responses to world events in the past 2 years

that said, "supply side inflation" is what is generally being experienced instead of a response to current monetary policy, so changes in monetary policy will be largely ineffective and will only cause problems as increasing costs of credit will discourage investments to increase production and shipping abilities...only causing a continuation of the situation

 

There are several Nero/Black for sale.

Just to be clear this one is mine. Clean carfax loaded with CF. Has extended warranty through 3/2023.

https://www.ferraricf.com/inventory/used-2018-ferrari-812-superfast-base-rwd-2dr-car-zff83cla4j0230465/


Maybe its the end of days because there is also a 612 Non OTO for 199K. But as others have said V12 market is hot….

They haven’t put pictures up yet.. This one was by Casey at Orlando CC

People say Nero is boring…. Did not ever find it so but that’s why there’s personal choice.





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I loved my 2018 Nero 812. The color suited the car’s personality. When I traded it in for my GTS I went Nero again and still love it.
I think the 812 series of cars look great in darker colors- CdF or one of the darker blues(yes I know we have a blue contingent on this site) would be my other choices.


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How about Grigio eski a dark dark grey with blue undertone Image Unavailable, Please Login

CdF f8 for reference on left

 

[emoji106] Niice


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We have a good discussion going on this very topic in B&I and P&R.

 

As a follow up to earlier posts about rising Ferrari prices and general inflation - only some items are spiking massively. So an 812 is way up, but a Lusso not as much. A new Rolex Daytona can NOT be found at any Rolex dealer anywhere in the world. Fully specced in white or rose gold, it sells at 3X MSRP online. A similarly clad Datejust's premium is a fraction of a Daytona premium.

There is a lot of money chasing goods due to Fed flooding the market, but the desirability of the asset is what drives up 812 prices. A nice spec Roma may sell for 30K above MSRP but an 812 GTS sells for 200K above MSRP. This premium delta will not change when chip shortages get resolved, or when inflation slows. The delta stays because the new post Covid world perceives much more value in a GTS relative to other exotics.

People assumed 812's were going to go down in value because of incoming GTS deliveries, or because F-12 prices were on a downtrend, or whatever. I remember a very self assured poster on this board stating with absolute certainty he was going to wait it out a bit and buy an 812 in the mid to high 200's. Well, the market then decided that an 812 is an extremely desirable Ferrari. Roma's may sink to sub-MSRP levels but I honestly don't think we will ever see good 812's trade below the 400K mark.

If you like your SF, please don't trade or sell it. You can probably afford to keep it and buy your incoming GTS. And then NEVER sell the GTS either

 

The premiums in the US on the 812 are quite impressive. No such premium in U.K. all used 812 trade below list price but quite some margin.

 

@Tommy Boy, @R J

The UK had more than its "fair share" of 812SF production whereas the USA received far less than its overall market share would suggest. Fewer than 1100 coupes were made for the USA, that serves to provide additional upward price pressure. And, if the eventual replacement ever materializes, it might have an price impact, could be upwards if its is an indirect replacement (i.e. hybrid, not a V12, is abandoned and never released), or downwards if it is completely amazing...

But, until then that future is years away, probably 2 years before reveal, until then we have the 812SF !

by the way, the UK's 812SF production (and EU/CN) was "put ahead" of the USA and by the time the USA production was being ramped up, the SF90 reveal occurred and nearly all 812SF orders were cancelled...had the SF90 reveal been a year later, it is like many more 812SF would been made for the USA...

 

I like your enthusiasm but you are using current market trends to predict future markets just as the very self assured poster did you mention. When these inflated markets reverse no one knows what the hard deck will be for any modern Ferrari. This is especially true when the 812 variants will be demonstrably slower in every regard to the average EV and furthermore in a market dominated by the next generation green drivers.

 

Spot on JTSE. The SF90 release skewed the US 812 market. The Ferrari "flagship" car buyers were confused. The SF90 was suddenly the flagship, not the big V-12. The 812 cancelations and rush into the SF90 led to the bizarre production number of 1,000 or so 812 units, an abnormally low number for a market as big as the US.

 

Excellent point and duly noted

Nevertheless, we have alot of data on how cars are trending post the Covid reprice of exotics. I am not saying 812's are going to appreciate to $1M. I am saying that the premium delta versus other Ferrari's will be in 812's favor. As JTSE points out, an unusually low number of Ferrari's possibly final V-12 regular production model was shipped to the US market. Talk to people who follow Ferrari sales statistics and I think you will hear of a definite trend to hoard V-12's, especially the 812.

 

Numbers don't really matter in a modern non-LE production Ferrari. There are more 812 produced than F12. There is no reason to believe that the 812 will settle above any previous V12 model. Its not the last NA nor the last V12 nor was it reviewed well when introduced. Many posted US dealers requiring you to purchase an 812 when they didn't want one to stay in the game. I think a couple said they need to buy one to get a Pista which also wasn't limited. Of course, I hope you are correct about V12s.

 

Post Covid, the definition of "limited" has to be revisited when it comes to some items. A Rolex Daytona or GMT is not limited per se. A Ferrari 812 is not limited. A Ferrari 812 GTS is definitely not limited. Nor an SF-90. But try getting your hands on any of these items. It is very hard.

It used to be dealers always had a new Ferrari to sell because canceled orders were common. I suspect buyers are not canceling Ferrari orders as easily as before. There is a fear factor of missing out. Maybe this is all temporary. Maybe it is the beginning of something long term.

It used to be Ferrari dealers played games with everyone to sell cars, like the couple who had to buy and 812 to get a Pista. My impression is dealers are not having to play those games as much now.

 

LE cars have a plaque and a numbered production. Without that it cannot be marketed as a Limited Edition (LE). For instance, the Pista and Speciale are not LE but the Pista Piloti and the 458 Speciale A are LE. They command higher prices and are minimum requirements for many significant collections if indeed being considered at all next to a hypercar.

 

Not for the USA, the F12 production was essentially double (about 2200) 812SF (coupe, not including 812GTS) (about 1100).

 

Just for clarification, I am suggesting that the word "limited" is taking on a new meaning in the post Covid world of Ferrari's.

I am getting an LE car (812 Comp) and understand the definition of "Limited". I know it will have a X of 999 plaque. I am also getting an SF-90 Spider. I know it is not limited. But there are lots of people who would do anything to have my incoming non-limited SF-90 Spider. It doesn't have the LE plaque, but is for all practical purposes extremely limited. Or at least, the market sees it as extremely limited.

The market will probably assign a a big premium to the car with the plaque, but the market is also assigning a pretty big premium to a car with no plaque.

All that aside, the 812SF is a non-limited non-plaque car, and the apparently market thinks it too should have a premium associated with "limited" cars.

 

It all comes down to perceived value and desirability. When I had my 812SF I thought it was as close to perfect as one can get- good looking (IMHO), fast, handling and a trunk for a nice weekend trip with the spouse and the ENGINE. I now have a GTS and love it as much if I find it less than perfect(less trunk room and cabin a bit tighter for my 6’2” frame) despite my loving the drop top.
If I had to do it over again I would have kept the SF and the GTS. I think the market has spoken and the SF is getting its due- enjoy it while it lasts. That of course depends on what Ferrari does for an 812 encore. Knowing Ferrari based on past practice it will probably be an 812C level of engine output, a body more Roma like and bit heavier- mostly likely due to a performance hybrid battery kept at 48V to minimize heft but bump up low end torque and up total hp closer to the 900 range.


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I've had mine for 18 months - I keep getting emails/calls from the approved dealership where I bought it and the dealer where it has been serviced offering to buy it. I have never asked "How much?" as I have no interest in selling it.
Particularly as, What would I replace it with ?
For the price point , for me , there isn't a better car available, and I can't see that changing any time soon.

 

Was referring to in existence which is what really matters.

 

Understood. A Limited Edition Ferrari is not "limited" and will not take on a different meaning. All Ferraris are "limited" by comparison to other vehicles. Covid will not change any definition IMO.

 

2043
that's the first year you can import non-USA (maybe made for Canada sooner) 812s...

 

Circular discussion. F12 more rare than 812. Just a fact. Said simply Ferrari made and continues to make more 812 than they ever did F12. Read into that whatever you like.

 

How does that make any sense? What was made for the USA was 50% less, there could of been millions more 812s produced than F12, but fewer than 1100 came to the USA, so how does the "market dynamics" care about what was made for the world since it cannot be accessed (in USA)? And, the reverse would be true, if the entire production of 812s was only for the USA, what effect would that have on current pricing? I think no effect.

For instance, if all 799 F12-TDFs came to the USA then it is likely the average asking price would be less than now (I think about 230 F12-TDFs came to the USA, if that supply was tripled the asking prices would be less, but, that did not happen, besides being a limited edition the entire production was not for the USA).

 

Is that mostly because COVID slowed down manufacturing and Ferrari is trying to fulfill some orders? For example, its been over 2 years since my deposit on a GTS. I doubt that would have been the case without COVID.