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812 Market Dynamics

Discussion in 'FF/GTC4Lusso/F12/812S' started by 1881, May 19, 2019.

  1. roma1280

    roma1280 F1 Rookie
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    This is what will happen.
    Currently in the US you can have your pick of nearly new 812s for around $50k under list. Spec needs to be good though, or it’s not moving at all.
    The car will bottom out around $250k-$275k in 2 years time and will begin a slow climb back toward sticker as people realize it was one of the last NA v12s.
     
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  2. JTSE30

    JTSE30 Formula Junior

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    #77 JTSE30, Jun 9, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 9, 2019
    Please point to any US 812s being advertised at 50K under MSRP (I find zero).

    And I have found brisk movement in many 812s, for instance, Boardwalk had 3, now zero, less than 45 days turn on each and each price close to MSRP. Yes, there are some that are sitting, but for that matter that's true of most everything (from TDFs to Speciales as well).

    And, remember, you can still order an 812 (in the US) so, I think many are doing exactly that as well, afterall, for that price, most will appreciate ordering to their exact taste.

    Here's your handy roadmap to 812 US MSRP:

    2018
    $335,275

    then, for 2019, increase:
    +$22,827

    2019:
    $358,102

    then, for 2020 (none produced yet), increase will be approx:
    +5600

    2020:
    $363,702

    none of the above does not include +$6,750 delivery fee, because it remains the same for each year

    So, I have found that listed pricing is generally close to the car's actual MSRP (see above, there is a nearly $23,000 skew in base MSRP between 2018 and 2019 models), and, I have found pricing to be mileage sensitive, however, I am yet to find any that are being listed for 50K under MSRP even with 3K miles, so, if you have any examples, please share.

    And, I do not believe an unharmed, low mile 812 (under 5,000 miles) will ever be listed for under 300K (even with GPF), ever, there are still low mile F12s listed over 299K:

    https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/detail/773333407/overview/

    https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/detail/767011635/overview/

    https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/detail/708431493/overview/

    And then when you factor in that only 2018 and 2019 model year 812s (which there are relatively few of in the USA since US-production of the 812 has been rather limited due to Ferrari oversupplying EU and China) will be free of GPF and several new electronic nannies and I then believe those early models will 'recover well' once the full impact of "last of V12" and "last of free breathing V12" becomes more well known and appreciated...
     
  3. deltona

    deltona Formula 3

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    Plus the fact that under Ferrari’s new pricing policy, replacement models (whether NA, hybrid, turbo etc) will have list prices considerably more than current models. This will suddenly make 812 and F12 look like good value.
     
  4. roma1280

    roma1280 F1 Rookie
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    I didn’t write anything about cars being listed at $50k below msrp, I said you had your pick of cars at $50k under, of course the dealers are keeping the list prices high. Get the list of the at least 50 cars on the market and start calling around with cash to buy today and let me know how that goes. My local dealer has 5 to sell plus a few more in the basement that aren’t advertised plus slots for new ones available.
    I have no horse in this race, I’m calling the market how I see it. This is a thread about 812 market dynamics. These are what I believe the dynamics are now.
     
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  5. roma1280

    roma1280 F1 Rookie
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    Yes totally agree they will look good value but that doesn’t mean the 812 is immune to market dynamics
    You can buy a 550,575,599 and F12 for under $200k so when you write that the 812 will never be listed under $300k, history is not on your side. Thousands of these cars are being made and to think that once they go off warranty and there are hundreds for sale that they won’t drop below 10% of their pre option msrp just makes no sense to me.
     
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  6. Thecadster

    Thecadster Formula Junior
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    It’s actually remarkably easy to find one below $50,000 less than MSRP. This is the first listing on CarGurus and it’s actually $75,000 BELOW.

    https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/inventorylisting/viewDetailsFilterViewInventoryListing.action?shopperListingsSearch=52476245#listing=225140214

    I have seen this car in person and it’s an astonishingly beautiful spec. Interesting fun fact, it’s first owner was a Fchat luminary renowned for his ability to spec cars, so we know spec ain’t the issue. In my mind, currently the market dynamic for the 812 is shockingly soft. I say this while my new 812, that I have waited 19 months for since ordering, is being PPF’d for eventual delivery this week (Finally!!).

    A couple other items worth mentioning:

    1). There is a delta between asking price and transacting price. Sometimes that delta can be narrow, other times it might be wide. My pure speculation is that, in the case of the 812, that delta is huge currently.

    2). The base MSRP data provided above do not include the $6750 for “additional costs and delivery, process, prep, & handling”. Plus the option price list can buckle your knees. My final MSRP is $470,637 (yeah, I know, I wish it weren’t so). By the time you do race seats and some carbon bits you’re well on your way to $450.

    All that said, I really like the long term value trajectory of the 812 for many of the reasons others mentioned above. IMHO, it drops fast (we are seeing that) and then comes back quick when people realize that it’s the penultimate interpretation of the sweetly harmonic Ferrari V12 masterpiece. Regardless, I bought it to drive and to keep.
     
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  7. roma1280

    roma1280 F1 Rookie
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    Shockingly soft is correct. The “this is the last ...” has been failing to play out for Ferraris and Porsches for quite a few years now. Maybe a few of us here bemoan progress, but speak to young kids and they want the latest fastest most powerful car. Give them a choice of SF90 with 1,000 hp vs an old school front engine V12 and most will chose the latter imho. People back in the day were probably bemoaning the advent of a starter motor when you had to crank the front of your car to start it. Progress is relentless and the young folks want what is new.
     
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  8. italiafan

    italiafan F1 Veteran

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    I agree with you to a point; but past is not always prologue.
    I firmly believe if I stood on a stadium stage in front of 100,000 young people with a poll question, car enthusiasts all, and offered to the crowd a free car to choose from (without concern for perceived rarity and future investment value, a driver's car):
    1. A NA V12 Ferrari making glorious sounds, dripping in leather, 800HP, 0-60 ~2.9 sec, top speed ~212 mph.
    or
    2. Fully electric Ferrari, silent, beautiful space-age interior, 2500HP (hell...why not 10,000HP), 0-60 ~2.0 sec, top speed ~ 300 mph.

    The breakdown would be >50% for the NA V12 because HP/tech/insane speeds ultimately will not carry the day in my opinion.
     
  9. roma1280

    roma1280 F1 Rookie
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    I’m with you all day long. I own a Ferrari from the 1950s so I’m not the new young buyer. Actually I would like both 1 and 2 (I have ordered a SF90). It’s sad for me to say but if your pool was in 5 years time and you offered a bunch of Millennials the choice of the 5 year old front engine car or the 2,500 hp electric car, my money is on the majority going for 2. The thing is to many of us, the naturally aspirated v12 is indeed the “last of an era” but in the coming years to many it will just be an old car with old technology. There aren’t enough of us around to keep the 812 market up. The 812 will depreciate like every v12 before it.
     
  10. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 Veteran
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    the increased turnover isnt going to help prices of production cars - guys i know who had 5 to 10 year holding periods now seem to have 1 to 3 yr and that's coming in.
     
  11. Shack

    Shack Formula 3
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    I wouldn't be so sure. Millenials are very "into" being individuals and want to feel unique. Ferrari needs to play on this fact and market to them in a way that appeals to their individuality. Ferrari and most car companies have done a terrible job at marketing to the younger generation and need to step up the game dramatically. Relying on the Ferrari name and mystique is wearing thin and as the years go by it dissipates. I think the question to ask millennials is not so much EV vs ICE/Hybrid etc its brand recognition and what owning a specific brand (and the resultant exclusivity) means to them.
     
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  12. Scraggy

    Scraggy Formula 3
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    So cool to see people who love and own these cars able to talk objectively about them, without detracting from the joy of ownership.

    I am quite an experienced owner and I have been surprised at how quickly the UK dealers have pulled support, meaning for this purpose building inventory from their own balance sheet rather than agency selling. They are only in the market for clearing price purchases.

    It is clear that Pista and Pista Spider will not enjoy the residuals that the previous series did even allowing a discount for turbo and not being 1/499.

    I think some F dealers are being wrong footed by the new environment from the manufacturer side and client side. Former meaning aggressive pricing and few affordable numbered cars to induce buyers to purchase regular cars.
     
  13. Scraggy

    Scraggy Formula 3
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    I think for many Ferrari is distinctly uncool, old business model, ostentatious, polluting etc. Kodak v digital.
     
  14. Scraggy

    Scraggy Formula 3
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    Spot on as they try to boost new cars to qualify for good stuff while minimising depreciation.
     
  15. BarryK

    BarryK Formula Junior

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    Good observations Scraggy. As an owner of from the the early-1980s onwards I would say that what we are seeing now (which you correctly analyse above) is not the normal for Ferrari. There was one period in 1988-1990 and another from the early part of this decade to now where Ferraris have become speculative investments for many and people get used to "free ownership" during these times. Ferrari is not shy about jumping on the bandwagon either. Back in the 80s they ran off 1300+ F40's vs the original 500 because of the bubble, and made a killing. Now we see silly pricing like the Monza SP and 5 models a year. However, most of the time outside of these periods, it there is just a cost to enjoy the cars, like most things in life like going on a holiday.

    Those "normal" times are returning as sure as night follows day.

    In the meantime, I am enjoying my two week old 812 and will no doubt take a bath on it in 2 years time.
     
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  16. Shack

    Shack Formula 3
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    +1 but a problem that is easily solvable with the correct long term targeted marketing. However as a public company its now only about $$$$ hence SUV etc etc. Its worked for Porsche so assume Ferrari think it will work for them. In the meantime P, L and M are producing very good alternatives and if one has the coin, Koenig, Pagani, Bugatti, SCG and T-50 from Gordon Murry look very interesting
     
  17. marky1

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    Totally agree with this. You can see it in price increases now. There is nothing left for flippers, Ferrari have taken this profit back through price increases. Only flipping profits to be made going forward will probably be the LE vehicles. In my view, it's the right thing to do. This flipping business just got out of control. Things have returned to normal and it now costs to own a Ferrari, I don't see that as being a big deal. You pay to play. On the 812 specifically it does not surprise me that it's below list price. Seems pretty normal for a Ferrari V12. They seem pretty easy to come across in Europe.
     
  18. Solid State

    Solid State F1 Rookie
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    Sad but true. However, it will bottom below the F12 and not rise as high. Its not the last of anything and its release reception was not stellar. I love it when new buyers haggle over $10K on a car that someone paid nearly half a million for all in that a new buyer wants half off on a car with 7K-10K miles. Big spenders!
     
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  19. Wheels1

    Wheels1 Formula 3

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    Well I just looked on Autotrader and all seem above list still to me, even a blue one that has messed around with, so not all doom and gloom.
    There was a lot of dealer demos that came on the market a few months ago, so a lot that came on the market all of a sudden, hopefully the market will settle down soon.
    As someone said if you want a Spider you best hang on to your coupe.
    Don't panic Mr Mainwaring!
     
  20. Scraggy

    Scraggy Formula 3
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    No panic, mine is sold, and so I know where the market is not where the asks are.

    Am sure Spider will be lovely,
     
  21. 1881

    1881 Rookie

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    fact is that over the last 2-3 months stock has been piling up with cars coming into the market and literally none going out

    seems dealers are artificially keeping prices up...there even have some cars appeared at a meaningful premium recently.... not sure how credible it is
     
  22. italiafan

    italiafan F1 Veteran

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    Feels a bit like Real Estate in US in 2008....:eek:
     
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  23. montpellier

    montpellier Formula Junior

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    V12 Ferrari has always been this way, no idea why all the negativity. UK cars for sale, lots of red cars, never a great colour for a V12 , or have odd interiors , red again , that limit buyers. The few I know of selling well recently have all had wider appeal or unique specs. (Atelier/TM) . Of course, you want to get out early in a normal V12 it will hurt, dealers have demo cars to sell, and many early exit types who probably thought they were going to make money with this last V12 stuff, that was not true. So market has too many cars, and buyers at that level either want a deal of a car to their own spec or something special. F12 crashed down in first year, then recovered. Will happen here when it goes out of production next year to make way for spider, that few will get. Then we move to new generation V12 era , whatever that maybe (hybrid/turbo). That may well stabilise things again. Indeed 458 (good) has gained in value the last year . 812 will drop down to a level, where who knows. But it is normal market dynamics and has been the same for decades with the V12. Try selling a California if you want it tough.
     
  24. nads

    nads Formula Junior
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    In this new world order that Ferrari is creating I think it is becoming more important than ever to be clever with options when speccing cars. Over spec/'exotic' will be a deathblow on resale and will make all the difference between acceptable depreciation and a desire to commit hari-kari.
     
  25. Bundy

    Bundy Formula 3

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    #100 Bundy, Jun 11, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2019
    So true. I’ve never felt comfortable doing barebones specs on Ferraris because it seems like a lost opportunity to create something meaningful & special. However, our $345K MSRP 488 GTB took 7 months to get a buy offer and sold for only $250K after commission with only 320 miles. My buddy’s TM 488 GTB brought about $275K with an MSRP over $390K.

    Our TM 812 has an MSRP of $599K and wouldn’t have a chance of bringing anywhere close to that on the secondary market. I don’t really mind because it is our first TM car and it’s a long-term keeper. I knew what I was signing up for with the 812, but was surprised with the 488.

    With Ferrari pushing serial purchases of nearly every base car to qualify for special models (now not even number but time-limited), it is arguably more important to spec base models conservatively unless one literally has money to burn.

    I accept depreciation but it makes me sad to feel the need to spec less special cars just to avoid a financial beating when being expected to effectively buy at least two cars per year. With increased pricing and production, I don’t think you can expect to make it up on special cars anymore. Plus, that approach never really suited me because I tend to put thousands of miles on every Ferrari. Even tdf’s seem to depreciate quickly with more than 1-2K miles on them. Pretty silly; our FF drives better with 21,000 miles than it did when I bought it with 2,700 miles in the Fall of 2016.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
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