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812 Market Dynamics

Discussion in 'FF/GTC4Lusso/F12/812S' started by 1881, May 19, 2019.

  1. technom3

    technom3 F1 Rookie
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    Extermely high msrp is how you get 50k plus back...

    my 19 has a sticker of 419. It could not be replicated for 50k back
     
  2. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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    After selling my tdf the newest f car i own is a 2012 so i have about a dozen fs from 1991 to 2012 - i feel pretty good about the cumulative value of what i own (cost basis and market value) for the next 10 years. Id feel very different if that was weighted towards the front end.
     
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  3. montpellier

    montpellier Formula Junior

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    Therein lies the the best approach, in any case if you keep an 812 10 years, the settled value will mean your depreciation over ten years is very reasonable, and 800 bhp will still be very very fast
     
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  4. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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    Yep best headache adjusted way to deal with depreciating assets is keep them for a long time. Rotating in and out of cars every 6 to 18 mos wld drive me nuts.


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  5. Thecadster

    Thecadster Formula Junior
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    You keep them long enough and they tend to make their way back. However, the opportunity cost is always a significant factor. I’ve done all the analysis, and for me, I ended up simply deciding on a monthly sum of money that I “burn” on cars. I treat it as a complete sunk cost. Money spent and gone forever, never to be recaptured. The sum is large enough to build a decent collection over time, but small enough to neither adjust my lifestyle, nor my wealth planning strategy. I found this method keeps my attention squarely on the “benefits”, rather than the “costs”.
     
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  6. Bundy

    Bundy Formula 3

    May 18, 2011
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    I agree completely. The problem arises when buying all the base models to get the ones you really want. I love the 488 GTB (more than many), but it’s a bit redundant with a Pista coming. This plays out repeatedly and now with increasing frequency with the dizzying number of models they are releasing every year. With a potential 812 VS, the soft requirement may well be 812 coupe, 812 Spider, and maybe even a PF or Lusso for good measure? And dealers historically like selling your slightly used Ferraris. They don’t benefit as much from buy-and-hold.

    This buying methodology results in a large supply of nearly new base models repeatedly hitting the market at the same time. This ain’t helping residuals.

    First world problems, I know.


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  7. Scraggy

    Scraggy Formula 3
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    The hold for 10 years for cheap motoring is based on an ICE offering going back 50 plus years.

    The outlook, social and legislative pressure and disruption we face means that the old conventions may not apply. Am sure 100 years ago people thought that a horse and ornate carriage would always be sought after in some shape or form and not just for weddings and monarchs.

    Can just imagine the threads in “Horse and carriage chat”
     
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  8. montpellier

    montpellier Formula Junior

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    #108 montpellier, Jun 11, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2019
    There are some very very expensive horses to buy today. What was the most expensive race horse ? 70 m USD ? Not bad for old technology. Not everyone has a digital watch either.

    I am not suggesting head in the ground, but the negativity is also not real either. Change is historically very slow despite how it is conveyed. The first electric cars were shown over 100 years ago. As for social pressure, when people start understanding what it rurally means to have batteries in the eco cycle they might not be quite as keen as they are today. There is a lot of superficial comment. When we have millions of obsolete batteries to dispose of (there is already a mountain) people might look beyond the immediate. Maybe we will go back to the horse and cart.....

    Mood and fashion do change, and it is essential that any brand , automotive or not follows that. But the world has never purchased as many super sports cars as it is now, and that will mean a faster saturation in the used market. There are also cycles if you start becoming a fashion purchase. Ferrari risks that with increased volumes. I am with Luca there, keep exclusivity and increase price, not do both.
     
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  9. Bundy

    Bundy Formula 3

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    True but they aren’t pulling carriages or any person over about 5’3” and 120 lbs, ftm.


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  10. montpellier

    montpellier Formula Junior

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    Maybe the carriages will make a come back. Pollution may change to a more visible (good for the roses) type again ! Polo players are not 5 ft 3 tho
     
  11. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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    Supply and demand never loses. Supply is too big.


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  12. Bundy

    Bundy Formula 3

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    I live amongst Kentucky thoroughbred farms so my view is admittedly biased towards racing.


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  13. nads

    nads Formula Junior
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    Just because electric is all the rage now doesn’t necessarily mean it will remain that way......it wasn’t too long ago that we were being preached the benefits of switching to diesels over petrol.....point is that governments are by in large catering to their own self serving agenda to dictate the flavour of the month and the policies which accompany those agendas are fickle at best. Big oil will not roll over that easily and neither will ICE.
     
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  14. roma1280

    roma1280 F1 Rookie
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    Agree with the whole post plus so right on mileage. My 33,000 mile F12 had more power and better engine than when new, my 575 same with 55,000 miles. Ugh. Wish we could all agree to drive our cars!
     
  15. Scraggy

    Scraggy Formula 3
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    I do agree it’s pathetic how poor our policy leadership is - pushing everyone in to diesel and now punishing. As you say battery issue an eco con over whole cycle,
     
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  16. deltona

    deltona Formula 3

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    My first Ferrari was a 2 year old FF that cost £100,000 below list. My second was a new F12. My third a new GTC4Lusso and my fourth will be my incoming new 812 in September.

    I was hopeful that buying 3 new V12s would help my profile and maybe get me an 812 Spider, but i know I am small fry in the Ferrari world. If i get offered a 812 spider and the price increase isn't ridiculous i'll likely take it.

    But honestly, with the rapidly increasing pricing of standard and LE models, plus many extra models incoming, I am starting to think that real value will be found in the used market over the coming years. Customers paying paying £400k for standard cars and £1m for LE cars that aren't that special or that limited are surely going to get their fingers burnt? Of course many will take the pain and continue but i believe many won't and that we could see a big correction in the market.
     
  17. roma1280

    roma1280 F1 Rookie
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    Spot on and that is the gamble Ferrari are taking, squeezing out any cushion that buyers had while simultaneously flooding the market with new models. As strong as the Ferrari franchise is, they surely can’t be immune to market forces. Yes there will be amazing pickings in the secondary market in the coming years. Some cars at 1/3 of original price no doubt.
     
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  18. Bundy

    Bundy Formula 3

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    Exactly.

    I really enjoy spec-ing new cars, especially via Tailor Made at the factory. Even the new dealer configurator is amazing, as are the available options. Also genuinely enjoy the Ferrari social ecosystem (rallies, previews, F1), where we’ve made some close friends.

    Having said that, the secondary market makes SO much sense financially, especially if you like to rack up guilt-free miles. There are lots of beautifully configured cars where you pay pennies on the dollar for awesome options.

    I found a pre-owned fully-loaded FF that was exactly the same spec that I had configured at the dealer three years earlier. Paid 48% of MSRP, and it had only 2,700 miles. You can already buy a nicely spec’d 812 for under $400K, and IMHO, its at least 1/2 to 1/3 the car that a tdf is. Ftm, the awesome F12 is only $200-250K. Even our TM F12 sold for only $275K with an MSRP of $509K and 6,500 miles. The McLaren 720S is another badass car for well under $300K. A 675LT is good value, too.

    Maybe not such a bad situation for driving enthusiasts. I want a tdf badly but also find the prospect of 4 other cool cars for the same money pretty appealing. It’s also guilt-free driving. Rack up the miles. Take them to the track. Park them wherever. No worries when it’s not a museum piece or collectible. For me, at least.

    There’s also the impending problem with more complicated nannies and electronics - not historically Ferrari’s strongest suit. The most recent TOFM devotes a few pages to the new ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance System), of which Ferrari is justifiably proud. Unfortunately, I don’t want any of these driver aids. I already dislike HELE (start/stop) on our 2019 812SF. Now, Ferrari is adding adaptive cruise control, lane-departure warning system, traffic-sign recognition system, rear cross-traffic alert system, automatic braking, etc. Maybe, the tiny rear Lambo-esque window of the SF90 makes some of these features more necessary, but it’s just more stuff that detracts from a pure driving experience and adds potential maintenance headaches for those of us who tend to keep our cars long-term. My 1997 Porsche 993TT has amazing visibility and no driver aids other than ABS. All mechanical linkages with no fly-by-wire. Nothing ever breaks and the driving experience is very pure.

    Tbh, I’m having trouble getting excited about hybrids, too. I see most of these new features as government-driven, rather than improvements designed to truly enhance the driving experience.


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  19. dustman

    dustman F1 Rookie

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    ^ Well said.

    Wanted an Aperta but after owning a 458 spider I have no interest due to the considerable body flex and the degraded sound.
    TDF on my list and I’m thinking perhaps trying an F12 B for a while and maybe I won’t then want to spend 4X for the TDF.
    As prices keep falling, and when we hit the next recession it will make the TDF a good value though.
     
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  20. FFantastic

    FFantastic Formula Junior
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    I agree with your point about your FF driving better with 21k miles on the clock. My Lusso has just topped 14k and is a totally different drive now it has loosened up a bit. Much much better.
     
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  21. deltona

    deltona Formula 3

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    I concur. I drove a new FF back in 2015 and then immediately after a used FF with 16,000 miles. The engine was so much looser and felt quicker!
     
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  22. Scraggy

    Scraggy Formula 3
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  23. dustman

    dustman F1 Rookie

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    ^ those cars hard to give away already? I thought they were holding value and huge line to buy new?
     
  24. vroom

    vroom Karting

    Sep 9, 2007
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    Wow, all of those safety warning features, etc are on the new $19,000 Hyundai Veloster.
     
  25. BarryK

    BarryK Formula Junior

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    True, but when they are on a Ferrari and they fail, it might cost $19,000 just to fix them.

    These cars are going to be an ownership nightmare out of warranty. Depreciation will reflect that.
     

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