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812 Market Dynamics

Discussion in 'FF/GTC4Lusso/F12/812S' started by 1881, May 19, 2019.

  1. Lukeylikey

    Lukeylikey Formula 3
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    This is not factually accurate. The motor industry is full of small sports and luxury car companies from the past that no longer exist - Iso, Jensen, Tatra, Monteverdi, Daimler to name just a few. There are many of them, from every era, that meant Ferrari always had competition and so far it has always stayed alive (though there have certainly been occasions where it was close). It’s why the hand of history is against McLaren. Smaller and world-renowned companies like Lamborghini could only survive by being owned by a conglomerate. I suspect the same will need to happen with Mac, unless they can gain a stock exchange listing. They could suddenly turn a proper long-term sustainable profit but I don’t think that looks too close. And what would happen to Pagani and Koenigsegg without their enigmatic founders? I think they would end up in the hands of much larger companies or would falter eventually.

    What we see today in terms of competition for Ferrari is almost not different at all from any point in history. Ferrari v Lamborghini, another main competitor - usually fairly new, some ultra high-cost and low volume brands, sports cars from mass-market brands (Mercedes 300SL for example) plus Porsches of all varieties. Everything changes, nothing changes.

    Ps. Ford and their GT40 might have a discussion with you about no other great cars existing at the same time as the GTO. And they wouldn’t be the only ones.
     
  2. ChipG

    ChipG Formula Junior

    May 26, 2011
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    Thank you very much for taking the time to write this! I really appreciate it! :)
     
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  3. Eilig

    Eilig Formula 3

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    Sorry you are feeling confused by all the choices, and that you fear your twins will feel same. Fortunately/unfortunately, I can't relate, as I've always known what I like and why I like it.
     
  4. Eilig

    Eilig Formula 3

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    Valid counterpoint. My construct was based on logic and market forces, not taking into consideration more emotional/subjective factors, such as the emotional response you have to the car's aesthetic. I would be the first to admit that the 812 will never be as beautiful as the Tdf. :)
     
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  5. ajr550

    ajr550 Formula Junior

    Apr 6, 2014
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    Quite a lot of discussion about 812 values in the Ferrari stand at Goodwood Festival of Speed yesterday.
    Convertible launch will be 2nd September in Maranello so that will have an impact as will GPF.General consensus was that convertibles will do fine from a depreciation point of view but hard tops will suffer especially post GPF models.Pre GPF hard tops may bounce a bit medium to long term.
    I am not really a convertible person so passed on convertible launch.
    Left Goodwood late on a beautiful summer evening and went out of my way to drive back to London on fairly deserted A roads.Sun shining,V12 singing, an hour plus of pure bliss.
    Don't know what my car is worth but at the moment it is priceless to me !!
     
  6. Eilig

    Eilig Formula 3

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    Fantastic report! THANKS for posting! (enjoy that V12) :)
     
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  7. F355 Fan 82

    F355 Fan 82 F1 Rookie
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    Again how many truly great cars exist from the 50s-70s besides Ferrari ? Every single last car made in 2019 with super performance in mind is amazing beyond belief......it’s not an apples to apples comparison. 30 years ago as a kid my dad had a countach and it was “exotic” meaning you saw one once in a blue moon, like a spaceship really, he’d pick me up at school occasionally in the 80s and people went nuts, living in Miami in 2019 you see an exotic car 5-10x a day. As for that countach, back then, even living in a major city like Houston, Lamborghini dealerships were not around like they are today so exotics were not as accessible , that only happened when the Gallardo was released, so getting your hands on an exotic in the 50s-80s without the Internet was not an easy task hence the cars were much rarer.
     
  8. 488GTS

    488GTS Karting

    Sep 17, 2015
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    Great post!!! My 812 arrived at dealer this week and I cannot wait to collect after PPF is done. I also will pass on the convertible as I feel the V12 needs to be a GT style coupe. My first ever V12. Super excited

     
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  9. Eilig

    Eilig Formula 3

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    Big congrats! Looking forward to pics and driving impressions! Ciao! :)
     
  10. gzachary

    gzachary Formula Junior
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    It is true that we do have mega performance in 2019 vehicles. At the same time, outside of the performance will also be the other aspects of the experience like the sound, etc. I do think we have almost no other vehicles that offer the kind of sound I like. One other manufacturer is in the same zone with sound. And that is it.

    Pagani, Bugatti, Koenigsegg etc have all been turbo and IMO have not sounded great. I drove the Zonda and the Huayra that a friend kindly let me. If I was going to choose either, for sure it would be the Zonda. The Huayra has way better performance but sounds too vacuum cleaner like too me. For me personally, not so much fun. The Zonda sound is what made that experience great.

    So I think this aspect of the 812 NA V12 is important The total sensory experience it can provide. Not just that it is a NA V12.

    Also there is a question of what kind of “value” multiple and dimensions we are all discussing. Will the 812 NA V12 with 400-800 units have the same economic value as the minute <50 quantities of the 250 GTO and its astronomical price now? Or the <100 quantities of the McLaren from the 90s?

    I don’t know. And I actually don’t care for my own personal interest. Primary purpose is enjoyment of life.

    A sideways depreciation curve is secondary. This is use ful to me as it helps me feel that I am not taking a long term huge loss for my whole family well after I am gone. I don’t think of any cars as a core economic investment.

    I do love driving it as a a great incredible GT sports car. That is what it feels like for me. And how I use it. And that is why I want to keep it, as I think it is the end of the road of this kind of driver experience. Excited to see the 812 derivatives
     
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  11. bobbyd

    bobbyd Formula Junior

    Nov 17, 2003
    699
    Reality is this:

    Right now preowned 812’s with little mileage are collecting dust in US dealer showrooms at ask prices in upper 300’s.

    Why? Couple reasons. First, the secondary market is very weak for any non limited car above $250K or so. This includes all brands. Buyers in the secondary market look for value at all price levels, and there are very few in these price ranges. Two, the older F12 is much cheaper and is very similar. Three, the F12 looks much better than the 812 - and this is widely accepted. Looks matter - just look at 70’s Dino’s if in need of evidence.

    Not saying the 812 isn’t a great driving car, just that the purchase price will substantially lessen over time.

    Yes in 50 years it and other contemporary Ferrari’s may be worth big money, bot since I’ll be over 100 years old by then it’s not something I’m planning for so.....
     
  12. gzachary

    gzachary Formula Junior
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    Yes I have heard the same from my dealer, who is also a long term friend. That people want to order their own spec and this has suppressed used 812 pricing till now. He believes that once production stops, that used pricing will revert stabilize and revert back to msrp.

    You make good points. I guess I am getting mentally tired in the day and/or feeling I didn't do a good job communicating in my post right above your reply. In any case, thanks for adding to the thread. It is cool to have people who care about this stuff. And like talking about it.
     
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  13. open roads

    open roads F1 Rookie

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    #163 open roads, Jul 6, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2019
    I, as many here, expect that these will be in the 250-275 range in three years. Just like the F12.

    I would think that it would be flattering to be compared to the F12tdf. What with it's higher value.

    What about the name? Nobody has said anything about it. It's a Superfast !!!!! for crying out loud. And it is super fast !!!

    The Super America has that wonderful name. And it has held it's own. Though, it is the special 575.

    I see the 812 as the spiritual successor to the Daytona. And it may be interesting, to see with time, if others see it that way.
    And I do believe that it is the last of a long and illustrious line of front engine V-12s. The next gen, just has to be part electric. And it should have a lighter engine. How many of us remember the first year of KERS ? AKA the Curse? .... Well it's near time for that investment to trickle down.

    The Bugatti and those others are not comps. And there are plenty of other competitive cars. But the Superfast will be fine. I would believe history will be repeated. And Market dynamics are about the same as historically has happened.
     
  14. Solid State

    Solid State F1 Rookie
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    No chance IMO. Its already third to last NA with more coming and no PF and not received well. Over time will drop below F12. We will see in a few years. If you want a car that will not drop below MSRP this is not the car.
     
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  15. LVP488

    LVP488 Formula 3

    Jan 21, 2017
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    Before regaining some value the testarossa was litterally crushed in spite of being the last mid-engine 12-cylinder - at the time new high end Ferrari were the front engined 550 and 575, the testarossa struggled in the used market (that's how I could buy one...)
    So history of used Ferrari is not one-sided, using it to support future price evolution is a difficult exercice.
    Btw the testarossa is still the last (and will be forever, most probably) mid-engine flat-12, with a pininfarina design - and you can get one for €100K, so why in the long term would people pay 3 times that for a 812?
    Today the 812 is state of the art and new, and that's what justifies its pricing; when it'll get outdated it will be valued another way.
     
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  16. Thecadster

    Thecadster Formula Junior
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    Apr 27, 2017
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    So I”m part of the exceptionally rare breed that thinks the 812 is greatly superior to the F12; and thus, will be rewarded in the future secondary market. Much of the derision that the 812 suffers from results from the perception of inferior styling; which for me, is always much like debating the merits of chocolate versus vanilla versus strawberry shakes. I will give my direct opinion, supported by recently owning a F12 for 2 years, and now currently owning a 812, I much prefer the latter. Since the 812 arrived (after an excruciating 20 month wait...), I have had the occasion to stare at it for several hours in the garage and find it to be more interesting, more muscular, and more contemporary than the F12. I liken the F12/812 visual debate to the 360/430 debate. I was always in the 430 camp, which is probably why I find myself in to 812 camp. Over time, the 812 probably sorts out and solidifies its fan base.

    Ultimately, and the main reason why I submit that the 812 will always be worth more than the F12, the 812 is a far superior car. I am going to append a write up I previously submitted for another 812 thread. It details the nature and extent of that superiority. Lastly, and at the risk of sounding like a 812 apologist, I often wonder how many of the 812 critics have enjoyed significant seat time (or ownership time for that matter) and were they to experience the 812 more thoroughly, would that then alter their overall opinion. Interesting thought exercise.

    Here is my previous 812 initial reaction post:



    So in between t-storms today I managed to get in my initial 30 mile blitz through the backwoods of North Carolina. I didn’t need any more time to validate my decision to move forward on the 812. If I’m honest with myself, I was more than a little concerned about the price walk between my perfectly awesome F12 and the 812. The dollar gap’s considerable and I was worried that the juice might not be worth the squeeze. Even though I had the opportunity to thrash a new 812 at Road Atlanta as part of Corsa Pilota last summer, I still wondered how it might work for my primary driving, which largely consists of carving up the twisty’s in North Carolina. I felt then, and still do now, that the F12 is 85-90% of the 812. That extra 10-15% has a considerable price. To me though, in the end, it was worth it. And I say this as an unabashed superfan of the F12. Here is what makes the 812 worth the price of admission:

    • 4WS - This new addition goes a long ways to reducing the overall feel of size and heft that is ever-present in the F12. Both cars are remarkably nimble, but the 4WS presents a significant upgrade.
    • Gearbox - The shifts are much quicker, especially the downshifts. My biggest gripe on the F12 was the relatively slow downshift. Compared to my Performante, it felt very much DCT 1.0. The 812 removes that criticism altogether. Added bonus is the shifts come quicker, which means there’s more of them. Also, they are more authoritative, not so much a slam (like a single clutch Aventador), but just very much both quick and abrupt.
    • Noise - Hard to improve on the F12, but the 812 is louder, which for me, is a huge win. To my ear, the cold start is much much louder. I did not go much over 6000 rpms, and can only imagine and assume that winding the V12 to the redline will be corresponding more eventful in the 812.
    • Power - The F12 is freakishly overpowered. It’s a white knuckled affair every time you slam the accelerator. The 812 is even more powerful, and shockingly, the power upgrade is readily apparent.
    • Confidence inspiring - Despite the obvious power upgrade, the 812 is more planted and creates far more assurance and certainty. The F12 always had a Jekyll and Hyde quality that I found endearing, but the 812 gently shifts towards Jekyll and away from Hyde.
    • Turn in - I actually really liked the light and fast steering feel in the F12 and I always thought the turn in was surprisingly engaging. The 812 is greatly refined in its steering feel and directional control. I look forward to exploring this more in subsequent runs.
    • My spec - The 812 is my first time creating a Ferrari spec and I love how it turned out. My worry regarding the spec took on a life of its own over the last several months, but all that trepidation was for naught. It’s exactly how I wanted it to be. Added bonus, my wife loves the spec. She actually called it “elegant and tasteful”. This last part is special as my wife is completely nonplussed on my car addiction. That she actually likes the 812 is an unexpected windfall. (For context, she thinks my Rosso Mars Performante is silly, and thinks the Miami Blue 991.2 GT3 RS I am thinking about acquiring screams mid-life crisis…)

    Bottom line, the 812 is a massive step forward from the already perfectly incredible F12. It’s a forever car for me and I look forward to many years and miles spent thoroughly exploring its capabilities and personality.

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  17. Bundy

    Bundy Formula 3

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    #168 Bundy, Jul 7, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 7, 2019
    I’m with you, Cadster. Your review is spot-on. I much prefer the 812 in every regard to the F12. I never thought I’d sell Ian’s TM F12, but the 812 is a significant step forward dynamically and looks prettier to my eyes. I honestly don’t know about comparative future valuations, but I am confident that I’ll leave my family before the 812 does. Btw, I do believe that the F12 is currently the coolest car available for $200-250K.

    Your 812 is gorgeous. A buddy is considering a similar color combo for his SF90.

    Btw, I also preferred the F430 to the 360. Wish I had never sold our gated manual example with a Capristo exhaust.


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  18. Bundy

    Bundy Formula 3

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  19. roma1280

    roma1280 F1 Rookie
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    Amazing spec and great write-up. Based on my experience of owning F12 and 812 I completely agree, the 812 feels like a car which is 10 years newer.
     
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  20. ross

    ross Two Time F1 World Champ
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    i have not driven an F12 or an 812, so i cannot opine on the performance in any way - which by all accounts sounds spectacular.
    but i will offer an observation made yesterday....
    i was at the houston cars and coffee in memorial city with my kids, as we do a few times per year.
    it is not an exceptionally refined meeting by any stretch, but usually has many modern exotics being shown, along with the acres of less interesting stuff.
    the crowds mill around and ooh and aah at various cars, take hundreds of pictures, and linger over the favorites.

    in the middle of a sea of ferrari v8's, lamborghinis, astons, porsches, mclarens, etc, sat an 812.
    i was parked nearby, and observed that nobody was looking at the 812. nobody. virtually nobody took a picture of it, nobody looked in to see the interior, nobody seemed the least bit interested.

    admittedly this is not a venue where everyone is a sophisticated car collector, but it is a venue with thousands of car obsessed people who have made the effort to rise quite early ion a saturday morning to bring or see cars - these are car nuts!

    and nobody cares about the 812.

    i remember when i was a kid, and on up to adulthood, whenever i went to a car venue, whether it was just cars and coffee or goodwood or amelia, i always lusted after the ferraris (some more than others), but i didnt just ignore them.

    the 812 is an acquired taste with tremendous performance.
    but it does not seem to evoke any dreams or have mass appeal.
    that may be part of the problem.
     
  21. Thecadster

    Thecadster Formula Junior
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    Anyone that owns a 812 (or a F12 for that matter) would hardly find your story surprising. In fact, the incognito factor on both cars I find to be a feature, not a bug. The 812 is subdued in styling cues and does not give off the typical hey-check-me-out flair that other exotics do. Few people take notice of the car when I am driving at all. I truly love that I can climb behind the wheel and blend into traffic. Now for the occasion I wish to create a little more drama, I jump into my Rosso Mars Huracan Perfomante which causes a hysterical reaction from nearly everyone including, oddly enough, minivan moms.

    By the way, what color was that 812? Front engine Ferrari’s are highly color dependent regarding the attention they receive. I’m guessing that 812 wasn’t Rosso Dino...lol.
     
  22. Bundy

    Bundy Formula 3

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    I wish I could fly under that cover of anonymity. Everywhere I go, the 812 attracts gobs of attention & compliments. More than any car I’ve ever owned. And from all age groups and boys & girls. Interestingly, it also seems to make slower drivers move out of the left lane better than any other car I’ve driven. That’s been very welcome & unexpected.

    I’ve never owned a Lamborghini, McLaren, Pagani, or brightly colored anything so I’m sure some other cars could attract even more attention. To me, the 812 is pure class and a gentleman’s GT. That’s a good thing IMHO.

    Our former F12 won the Chairman’s Trophy at last year’s Lexington Concours despite being a muted Grigio Ferro and up against other far wilder designs (like the green Lambo in the background). Some folks apparently still likes classic lines and proportions.

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  23. ross

    ross Two Time F1 World Champ
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    there are benefits to not calling attention for sure.
    color is definitely an issue and affects people's perception. but i think in the case of the 812, it is the shape. forget about whether you like or dislike the rear end, the overall shape is evolutionary from the f12, and just not terribly exciting. efficient, aggressive even, but not memorable enough. or, not memorable enough at this price point. i think once these cars fall below $300k, they might be viewed differently.

    this particular 812 was a cream color - not stark white.
    sorry, i dont have a pic of it because even i did not take one.
     
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  24. Bundy

    Bundy Formula 3

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    Actually, the amazing thing about the 812 and recent Ferrari Centro Stile design, in general, is how its tremendous aerodynamic efficiency is created without arguably gaudy wings-and-things. I guess we do live in a world where loud and in-your-face works better for some folks. Maybe, the 812’s 790 hp of normally aspirated 6.5L engine also isn’t exciting enough?

    With all respect to that 812 owner, off-white (Avorio?) is perhaps not the most exciting or flattering color for an 812?

    Anyway, you’re certainly entitled to your opinion and experience. We’re blessed to have so many options nowadays. I’m grateful to Ferrari for still making modern interpretations of the classics.





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