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812 VS Rumors

Discussion in 'FF/GTC4Lusso/F12/812S' started by Frenzisko, Feb 10, 2018.

  1. KenU

    KenU Formula Junior
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    Not true...
     
  2. JTSE30

    JTSE30 Formula Junior

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    If the 812Spider is announced in November, it will likely be a year before it is in production (well, 6-8 months for Europe and then about 12 months before USA), so that's the end of 2020, and then new EU regulations for 2022 model year will probably ensure the 812 production ends 12/31/2021 (unless Ferrari can use their small volume manufacturer status to delay), so that means about 14 months production...definitely will not be 3 years...
     
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  3. klinkman

    klinkman Formula Junior
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    Do we really think Ferrari takes orders from the EU?
    Come on man, it's one of the biggest brands in the world!
    The last thing the EU needs is another Brexit debacle, no they'll cooperate.
    I have to believe Ferrari can get a waiver (do what ever they want) here.
     
  4. j09333

    j09333 Formula Junior
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    I doubt it.
    Anyway, if EU charges huge for v12 and Ferrari choose to produce v12 with taxes then I am happy to pay taxes for them for my car to be v12 driven.


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  5. Eilig

    Eilig Formula 3
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    Following your logic that Ferrari is exempt from EU mandates because "they are Ferrari," then why are they already heading largely to the direction of smaller displacement turbo engines, and soon more hybrids? If Ferrari were truly exempt, then the only reason they would be going this direction would be to reduce engine build costs, as overall the $/hp ratio is lower for turbo than NA engines.
     
  6. George330

    George330 Formula Junior

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    I agree. In fact I do not think that a specialist brand with relatively small sales footprint of under 10,000 cars has any leverage when it comes to regulations. Ferrari is important to us, but it is a tiny producer compared to the giants of the car industry.
    Clearly Ferrari will comply with regulations and pay lots of attention to the trends in markets like China where cars with engines above 3 litres are taxed very differently. So for Ferrari volume models I expect a steady trend towards electrification and small displacement turbos (eg sub 3-litre V6).
    As far as the high end models are concerned, they will either (1) get accommodated within the overall limits for the maker, i.e. as production grows beyond 10,000 with the launch of the SUV, the V12 and high performance models will become a smaller percentage of overall production or (2) these models will get taxed at a higher rate, which I guess can be absorbed by the client base that buys them as demand is less price-elastic at those levels.

    Just my two cents


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  7. absent

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    That's what you hope for (I would too) but unfortunately the most likely scenario, based on reality and past history.
     
  8. Marcel Massini

    Marcel Massini F1 World Champ
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    "Taking orders from EU"?
    They have NO chance. Besides that they now produce 10'000 units per year anyway (and that's without an SUV/FUV/Purosange/whatever). They will not be exempt. No matter how "big" their brand might be. The EU certainly doesn't care about that.

    Marcel Massini
     
  9. Marcel Massini

    Marcel Massini F1 World Champ
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    Yes. Absolutely.

    Marcel Massini
     
  10. crinoid

    crinoid F1 Veteran

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    By 2028 there is NO low volume exceptions for any auto maker in regards to emissions.

    Auto Emission Laws
    • Fleet emissions below 95g per kilometer 2021
    • Euro7 regulations September 2023
    • C02 2028 all low volume manufacturing exceptions are gone.
     
  11. JTSE30

    JTSE30 Formula Junior

    Oct 1, 2004
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    I do, when I read their annual reports, it is all about great concerns that the EU (and to a far lesser degree China/US, but now China follows EU emissions regulations...)

    witness:

    F8: why now? why is 488 production stopping a year early?

    it's all in the annual report...

    F8 will have GPF, that's EU's will (due to WLTP/RDE required compliance starting 1/1/2020), not Ferrari's (Ferrari SVM status was able to earn them a delay of about 16 months, others like Porsche/etc had to comply Sept 2018)

    Ferrari's upcoming "big brother" being hybrid, that's 100% the will of the EU giving orders to the entire Automotive world that produces for EU (VAG/VW is much much larger than Ferrari...government's set the plan)

    Ferrari's capital market days last Sept, all about complying with the EU

    read through Ferrari's annual reports, it's all there, Ferrari is quite concerned about what the EU directives are doing to its business

    https://corporate.ferrari.com/sites/ferrari15ipo/files/ferrari_nv_annual_report_12.31.2018.pdf

    Start with last paragraph of page 16 and the continue through page 19

    Then I suggest skipping ahead to page 58 and start reading there (starting with the last paragraph of page 59 might be interesting to you)
     
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  12. JTSE30

    JTSE30 Formula Junior

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    #262 JTSE30, Apr 25, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2019
    The important point here is Particulate Matter -- non SVMs had to comply (in EU) last Sept (you may have noticed Porsche/BMW/Audi/VW group, etc having great trouble with this last year) as judged by the WLTP/RDE tests can 'earn' a car the dreaded 'stop sale' until compliant throughout the entire EU...unlike CO2 emissions were a penalty can be paid, violation of PM output blocks the car's sale (actually its registration).

    Now, the 812 (any V12) can successfully comply with the PM requirements, but, will require a GPF (either standalone in the exhausts or as part of a 4-way catalytic converter), just know that the GPF generally needs to displace as much volume as the engine it is connected to (at 6.5L that is about 396 cubic inches, that's a lot of new volume/piping!)

    The application / fitment of a GPF (2 actually, same as number of catalytic converters) will add a significant amount of new volume for the engine to 'push its exhaust through', thus adding a great deal of back pressure (poison for a combustion engine) and due to the heavy filtering, change the exhaust note, the GPF can be an acoustic device, but, here's what Ferrari was able to do with the F8:

    https://www.instagram.com/p/Bv7K91mhCK_/?utm_source=ig_share_sheet&igshid=gvua1hyqv9wl

    In summary the V12 can be made to comply but will incur some issues, unknown, but likely to include reduced crispness of the exhaust note, perhaps reduced power, other unknown issues related to GPF needs such as regeneration that will / could require the ECU to run the engine lean to achieve hotter exhaust gases, etc...and, adds weight

    Oh, and NONE of this is what Ferrari would choose to do on their own, it is the will of the EU forcing this upon Ferrari and all others in the automotive world that produce for the EU...
     
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  13. klinkman

    klinkman Formula Junior
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    No one considers politics here, fine. Just witness the roll back in US environmental policies. My point is anything can happen.

    Ultimately, the point I didn't make clearly, is a 14 month window to an EU date does not doom an 812Spider model as the OP stated here: "will probably ensure the 812 production ends 12/31/2021." There are still ROW markets.
     
  14. JTSE30

    JTSE30 Formula Junior

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    POTUS 44 decidedly set standards specifically designed to destroy the US car market and much much more:, the standards put forth could not even be accomplished with (combustion engine) motorcycles, that is how damaging they were.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/larrybell/2012/11/04/epas-insanely-ambitious-agenda-if-obama-is-reelected/

    In comparison, the EU is governed quite differently:

    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/lseupr/2019/02/19/is-the-european-union-governed-by-unelected-bureaucrats/

    Of course, Ferrari can choose to do things quite differently than in the past including producing two different V12 powertrains, one with GPF fitments and one without (by comparison, this is what Porsche does, no GPF for Porsches made for USA), that would be something they have not done in recent history if ever. I agree, one can only hope that is eventually what happens! But all I/we have to rely on is what has been done in the past.
     
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  15. klinkman

    klinkman Formula Junior
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  16. JTSE30

    JTSE30 Formula Junior

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    #266 JTSE30, Apr 25, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2019
    I believe you mentioned rollbacks in policy can happen, yes, they do, in case of POTUS 45 it was required because what 44 set in motion would destroy the USA in many ways.

    Further, I believe you brought 45's actions to light as an example that the EU 'could have a change of heart' (if I got that wrong, then I missed your point) and my point is the EU will not have a change of heart, the EU's actions have in been in play for more than a decade and only continue to tighten the noose on the automotive world:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_emission_standards#Emission_standards_for_passenger_cars

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-frankfurt-electrics/carmakers-face-electric-reality-as-combustion-engine-outlook-dims-idUSKCN1BN00X

    https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:aDJqX7wv4n0J:https://www.upsbatterycenter.com/blog/geneva-motor-shows-battery-innovations/+&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us

    https://www.thenational.ae/business/technology/electric-shock-felt-at-frankfurt-motor-show-1.627803

    The 14 month window I addressed in an earlier post in this thread:

    https://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/posts/146574484/

    I was replying to what I believe you were trying to indicate that the EU might change their mind and my double-response was (a) 45 is taking care of USA moving the needle back to maintain economic stability and more (b) the EU is not going to change their mind, there are far too many countries involved and have not yet indicated any such relaxations of policies only a continuing tightening.
     
  17. cesman

    cesman Formula Junior

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    Marcel, are they already over the 10,000 threshold?


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  18. cesman

    cesman Formula Junior

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    100% although there are some creative ways around this. Saw last week in Autocar that FCA combines with Tesla to bring fleet emissions below 95g/km


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  19. cesman

    cesman Formula Junior

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    That ain’t going to happen in EU or anywhere else. Trump’s move has severely reduced the competitiveness of US automakers


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  20. ajr550

    ajr550 Formula Junior

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    Any news on 812 VS though ?!
     
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  21. JTSE30

    JTSE30 Formula Junior

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    The only "guaranteed" news is this:

    If there is an 812VS you will have to have an existing 812 in your collection to be able to order, that mandate has been given to all USA dealers (more generically though, by that, it was mandated to be able to order a limited / special edition the regular model it is based upon must be currently owned, not merely in ownership history but still in garage).

    And for the UK (as noted in your location) it appears the 812 has been already been discontinued, so, that would probably mean no 812VS for UK.

    from here:

    https://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/threads/rhd-812-for-sale.582439/page-2#post-146505119
     
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  22. crinoid

    crinoid F1 Veteran

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    Yes. When I heard this news the first thing I thought is that Ferrari may benefit from this and perhaps why they have said the V12’s will not have any hybrid contradicting what they said a few years back about v12 being paired with electric aid rather than turbo.
     
  23. klinkman

    klinkman Formula Junior
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    I didn't say EU could have a change of heart. I said anything could happen, for example, from news reports even Trump himself thought he wasn't going to win the election. But this is off topic.

    You linked the post that originated this thread.

    My point is, if the EU window closes as you say at month 14, why does that necessarily terminate Ferrari's 812 construction? Your reply timestamped 8:44 did not address even though you quoted my point "a 14 month window to an EU date does not doom an 812Spider model." There are many other regions (ROW - Rest of the World) Ferrari can ship these cars to.
     
  24. Shack

    Shack Formula 3
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    If you need to own an 812 then they will need to double factory production as every 812 owner will say yes. I fear that owning an 812 is only entry to the game and doesn't guarantee anything.
     
  25. JTSE30

    JTSE30 Formula Junior

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    #275 JTSE30, Apr 25, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2019
    Absolutely, the future 812 (coupe, spider, VS) production is unknowable, until the factory announces its decisions or those decisions simply become apparent due to the results. But, for planning purposes we only have the history to review. For all I know the EU will allow a certain number of non-compliant vehicles to be produced/registered each year...that would be awesome for Ferrari.

    Historically Ferrari has not continued production elsewhere once EU production ends, maybe that is what will happen, ROW will continue to receive 812s (without GPF and without all the 2022 EU regulations that will require chassis redesign, more nannies, etc)
     
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