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Bull or Bear on Ferrari Vintage market?

Discussion in 'Vintage Ferrari Market' started by rob lay, Oct 17, 2005.

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Bull or Bear on Ferrari Vintage market?

  1. Bull - Prices will continue to rise over next 5 years.

  2. Bear - Prices will correct down below 2005 levels in 5 years.

  3. Flat - Market will remain about the same.

Multiple votes are allowed.
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  1. rob lay

    rob lay Administrator
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    If you were investing money now for 5 years, would you be bullish or a bear about the Ferrari Vintage market?

    Will Dayontas go much above $220-250k? Will 2 cam 275's go above $400k? Will GTE's and 330 2+2's go above $100k?

    Will the market correct itself back to $130-150k for Daytonas, $275k for 2 cam 275's, and $50-60k for the 2+2's?
     
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  3. Tspringer

    Tspringer F1 Veteran

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    Correct back to the numbers you list and perhaps even a tad worse.

    I see a deep consumer driven recession in the short term future. This will bring deep stock market declines. Housing is also in trouble in many areas of the nation where a true bubble is popping as I type. The Fed will continue to raise rates in response to energy price driven inflation that will continue for years to come.

    All that will breed an environment where cash is king, people are scared and toys see declining markets.


    Terry
     
  4. BigTex

    BigTex Seven Time F1 World Champ
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    ....and converting them all to run on hydrogen will cost you 50% of the horsepower....
     
  5. Glassman

    Glassman F1 World Champ
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    Your problem is that you are looking at Vintage Ferrari ownership as an investment. You should know better than that.
     
  6. 410SA

    410SA F1 Veteran

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    The reality is that the vintage Ferrari Market is not a market at alll, but a very small segment of people buying what they want in a time where the the very high end of income earners is making more money than ever before, even adjusted for any inflation index you care to use.

    The small run production cars where less than 1,000 exist today is such a tiny segment that it really doesn't have any correlation to things like real estate housing bubbles for middle income earners. There will always be filthy rich people and cars like the 275 4 cam and SWB's and Daytona Spiders are being traded by and between this very small group of people.

    I don't believe that the market for mass production Ferraris like the 360 and 430 will hold up at present levels, simply because the normal laws of supply and demand will apply, but I am certainly a buyer of relatively rare cars, produced in small numbers and where very few are finding their way onto the open market.
     
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  8. rob lay

    rob lay Administrator
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    maybe I'm optimistic about a down turn so I can enter the vintage world myself? :eek:
     
  9. judge4re

    judge4re F1 World Champ

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    Overall will be flat. Premium cars will go up, maybe to the point were you can get almost $1 per $1 of the restoration. Cars with needs may creep, but more likely will just pass from dealer to dealer or rot in someone's garage...

    Yes, the boomers have money and some are interested in these cars, but it still comes down to demand. Modern art is going for stupid money compared to what old masters are selling for right now. Some will recognize true value in the old stuff, but the modern works are what people want.

    Substitute vintage Ferraris for old masters and muscle cars for modern, and you get the drift.

    That said, Alex is right, this is a very small market, much smaller than what the magazines and dealers would have you believe. There are way too many choices out there right now for people to spend their disposable income on.
     
  10. nerd

    nerd F1 Rookie

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    One common element of the price run-up for Ferraris in the late 1980’s and today is a disruption in the world economy. As the dollar has weakened against the Euro by 25%, cars held in the US appear to be more affordable to European collectors. They pull cars across the Atlantic reducing the “supply” in the US driving up the market as measured in dollars until equilibrium is met. In the late 1980’s the Japanese were pulling cars across the Pacific when the dollar’s value dropped by 50%. I doubt that anything short of full-blown liquidity crisis in the US economy will dissuade the American Ferrari collectors from trading cars, it’s not a salary driven market. In the ebb and flow of international markets, America will again have its day and pull Ferrari back.

    Dr. Alan Greenspan
    Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
    Testimony before the Joint Congressional Committee on the Ferrari Market
    August 18, 2005
     
  11. donv

    donv Two Time F1 World Champ
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    I don't think any of them will go down, in nominal dollars. As someone else pointed out, there just aren't that many vintage Ferraris for a worldwide market. Through the GTC/4 there were probably fewer than 10,000 vintage Ferraris made in total, and how many of those survive?

    However, I think the major appreciation for many of the models is probably over for now. I don't see Lussos and 275s increasing by too much over the next few years, for example, and some of them may even decline a little bit.

    I think the 2+2s still have some appreciation left. IMO, the disparity in pricing between the 2+2s and the 2 seat cars is still too much. I think the big GT cars (the 500SF and the 365 California) probably have some appreciation as well.

    So, I voted for "flat."
     
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  13. dretceterini

    dretceterini F1 Veteran

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    for a continual but small increase. I don't think we will see $500,000 Daytonas again
     
  14. tifosi12

    tifosi12 Four Time F1 World Champ
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    Spyders are already well past that line.

    I'd say the vintage market continues to go up. Forever. Too many millionaires who live their lives independent of the national or global economy vs a limited to dwindling supply of real vintage cars.

    Vintage car events are gaining in popularity every year and participants need a ride to join.
     
  15. synchro

    synchro F1 Veteran

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    Very astutely put.

    For example, look at the Maserati market that suffers in America. General prices for GT cars attract a lesser crowd and barely appreciate relative to gains in the Ferrari market.

    My Dino sold at the dealer for around $15,000 in 1973 while my 1972 Maserati Bora was $25,000 yet the Dino has nearly tripled since I've owned it and I'll be lucky to get my original money out of the Bora. The truth is that the Bora is a better driver around town due to the high torque output relative to the rev'er that the Dino is.
     
  16. rob lay

    rob lay Administrator
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    No way! ;)
     
  17. El Wayne

    El Wayne Global Moderator
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    And the last time they weren't was probably 1983! :D
     
  18. tifosi12

    tifosi12 Four Time F1 World Champ
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    Not to sidetrack this discussion, but would that be true for conversions as well? I always thought their price was Berlinetta + labor, but I'm no longer sure that's still the case.
     
  19. rob lay

    rob lay Administrator
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    Good question, my guess is cuts run B + $10-30k. Sheehan has an article on that, wasn't it just in Velostrada?
     
  20. tifosi12

    tifosi12 Four Time F1 World Champ
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    Again, I have no data to back it up, but my hunch is, that the vintage market is so bullish, that even conversions are making more than "just" B+labor.

    At any rate I met recently a Daytona Coupe owner who had his car restored (and not even to perfection) and the overall cost was 300k. Would he sell it for less than what he put in? Unlikely, so the 1/4 mill barrier has long been passed.
     
  21. El Wayne

    El Wayne Global Moderator
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    Velostrada? What's that?
     
  22. El Wayne

    El Wayne Global Moderator
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    By the way, here it is:

    http://70.85.40.84/~ferrari/velostrada/issues/200509/Daytona_Conversions_Sheehan.htm

    Mike says there's a $25K bump in value for conversions over standard coupes, far less than the cost of doing a conversion today.

    "In 1977 it cost approximately $20,000 and up to convert a coupe, depending on who did the work and what additional repairs were necessary. (Many of the cars we used had been rolled or heavily crashed.) By 1984 this number had risen to about $45,000.

    Today the price to complete a conversion would be astronomical, far more than the $45k it cost 20 years ago. For a $25,000 bump in value, it just doesn’t make sense. That’s why no one is even attempting spyder conversions anymore—not to mention that the patterns for the sheet metal and top bows are long gone and the experienced fabricators have since scattered."
     
  23. Tspringer

    Tspringer F1 Veteran

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    AS Bill B. has pointed out in excellent detail.... there are conversions and then there are conversions!

    I have seen some truely horrid Daytona spyder fakes. There was recently one for sale here locally (no idea of VIN or what happened to it other than it did not sell) at Flashback Motorsports that was a total disaster. The entire rear of the car was just wrong and the interior had reinforcing bars running across the back. I wouldnt pay anywhere near coupe money for that one.

    Then there are perfect conversions like Bill B.'s. I wouldnt doubt it would go for $75K over an equally nice coupe. Perhaps more?

    Part of me does wish prices would tank. Then perhaps I could build a Comp coupe replica to race.....

    I will probably end up building an E-Type low drag coupe replica instead.



    Terry
     
  24. iwanna860monza

    iwanna860monza Karting

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    A couple of years back, maybe 2002, there was an article in one of the major British dailies, I think the Observer. It stated an economist who's theory was you can look at luxury products and they tell you whether there will be a crash or not. For example in the 1980's there where more "Supercars" launched in 2 years than in the previous 20. However less than 2 years later there were none released. Now fast forward to 2005 what are we seeing again, so yes current expensive cars will stall if not completely drop in value. Look for $400,000 Enzo's etc. LOL

    Now, as for the historic Ferrari's well
    - the borderline one's first, Daytona's 275's etc. yes most are owned by collector's but arent some owned by speculator's and it wont take many of them to "need to sell" and a bit of good old fashioned "frugality" and this will lead to............ a price correction ?? I think so.
    - the car's with no use, like some Grand Prix cars and some supercars, you will definintely see a price change because the price's are quite false, I mean apart from looking at them what do you do with it.
    - the classic ferrari GTO, P - cars , 166's etc. will probably stay strong, simply because when price's really dive nobody sells. I mean in 1993 Talacrest/ Symbolic had a GTO @ 3.5 mil USD and now they are worth what $10 - 15 mil. USD. But during the 1990's slump very few of these cars sold. Why would you ????? "buy high, sell low" ???? unless of course you had to. LOL

    Just my 2 cents worth
    Tim
    N.Z.
     
  25. 410SA

    410SA F1 Veteran

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    Yes way.....way way way - like $650k way

    There were only 121 production spiders made, 96 of those were US models the rest were not and 7 were RHD.
    Talk about a miniscule supply!

    The conversions, of which there are reputedly around 100, are really damaged goods to a collector. They will fetch a small premium over the going rate for a Daytona coupe, but not nearly enough to recover the cost of cutting of the roof.
     
  26. rob lay

    rob lay Administrator
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    ;) = wink. :)
     
  27. Tabletcounter

    Tabletcounter Karting

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    How can you call them damaged goods if they are they are valued higher than the original!

    Although after saying that, its not something I would ever consider doing to mine.
     
  28. dretceterini

    dretceterini F1 Veteran

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    I was speaking about Daytona COUPES not getting back to the $500,000 they were once at. A REAL Daytona spider (and I thought there were only 70-something real ones) is worth more than that today....as to an aftermarket chop-top, to ME it is not worth as much as a coupe...
     

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