First Gen California - Depreciation Curve?

I think everyones crystal ball is fuzzy on that aspect however we can reasonably guess that they will depreciate for at least the next 2 years with the announcement and eventual release of the Portofino. Ive been watching them for the last 9 months and I noticed a huge dip in prices directly after the announcement of the Portofino. Been seeing a lot more of all years show up on Ferrari dealer show rooms as well and have seen a dozen or so first gens selling CPO under 100k since announcement. I also think there is a lot of room to negotiate on these cars especially at non ferrari dealers. Example,just very recently a 2010 Cali with 22k miles CPO at Ferrari of denver that had a price tag of $97,998. It was a nice example and given that it DID come with 1 year warranty and 1 year scheduled maintenance cant see paying that much for one without those perks. So i think going forward at lest for now that is going to be a heavy bargaining tool.

With all that said while im optimistic on the depreciation scale the California is still a popular car. My guess is they will dip down into the 80s and perhaps mid to upper 70s (before negotiations) but I dont think they will go much below that. And even if they do they are more then likely be cars that have some issues. Given how expensive some of those issues are i think it would be safer to look at some of the higher priced ones, and for sure any you are serious about pulling the trigger on doing a full PPI.

Personally Im glad I didnt buy one in July and have since opted to get very serious starting next August in the hopes that the prices might settle at or lower then they are now. and i might be able to get into a lot more car (Cali 30) for about or around my current budget or I could save 20-25k on a 2010-2011. But it also might be wishful thinking. But one thing is for certain, there will be more cars available in 8 months.

 

I think we got a long ways to go. Between normal depreciation and a falling market I see them in the 60s sooner than later.☹️

 

I don't agree, the big bulk of California Ts were taken as a way to get a 488. Lot's of crummy specs on California Ts out there and most of those cars have gone to a second owner for a substantial markdown. I watched them move over the last year and a half. No new Californias being made now and so there won't be anymore dilution. If you don't like the Portofino or can't get an allocation then you have to buy a California if you want a Ferrari GT convertible. New to Ferrari owners are going to be looking at the California as their most affordable option on a recent gen car. That should keep the car in demand. Clearly the 430 will also be there but it's now almost 10 years old for the last production year. If you ask me, Cali T's represent the most features for the least money in the Ferrari stable.

 

I should have clarified that i meant more Ferrari's on the whole will be available not just californias. You make a good point on the cars being a placeholder for another car, and i dont doubt that will be the case but I have also talked to a few california and cali t owners that want to trade up to the portofino and I suspect there will be more, as well as earlier model Ferrari guys trading into Portofinos. But thats the thing about speculation you never really know for certain.

 

I personally have never looked at depreciation. I look at the tank, is it full or empty. The more times I can fill the tank the more enjoyment I get.

You can always wait another year and get a car cheaper, but you lost a year of driving.

 

True, but my timeline was already going to be in 9+ months anyways. I could purchase now but I still have my truck im paying for. We (my wife) decided we were going to pay the truck off first. At this point im counting it as a victory that my wife is ok with me purchasing to begin with so you take what you can get. At this point im kinda hoping for prices to dip enough that i can get into a 13-14 Cali 30 for what i have budgeted for a California now. That would be a pretty good victory but that also means they need to depreciate another 20-30 grand too. might be a tall order. So for now i just have to count the days until I have one in my garage.

 

Definitely need the spouse on board. In my case I was negotiating for another $10K off. My wife said if this is really the car you want why are you negotiating over $10K? Done. I bought the car.

 

My wife hates to spend any money, period. But she knows we have to spend money to make money. But when it's spending for fun or pleasure she gets extra stingy. The good news is she actually liked the Cali T we rented while on vacation, and I've been wanting to replace a toy car I sold when we first got together. So lucky me... Honestly I have very little to complain about, we live a fairly blessed life. So since she pled the Ferrari fund after paying off the truck I pretty much jump if she asks for anything. Here is the kind of lady she is, she bought a "piggy bank" and put a 1/18 the scale California on it that we put misc savings into.

 

I’ve been looking for a while now. I came very close to pulling the trigger 4 months ago on a beautiful rosso mugello 2010 California with 22k and only $90,000 asking. I even paid for it to be PPI’d at the dealer. Dealer said it needed about $10,000 worth of work and the paint was bad from over-washing swirl marks, it had no rear seats and no shields so I passed. The car had every other option perfect. Diamond stitching everywhere including the doors, Cavallino front and rear, the 19” wheels I liked, backup camera (a must for me) and Steering LEDs (another must) and my second favorite Cali color (mugello).

I haven’t been close to pulling the trigger since. There are plenty of cars around $120,000 now, but nothing as good or as well optioned as the one I saw for $90k four months ago. There is currently a ‘15 Cali T that I like very much for around $170k, but the dealer won’t even answer my emails (the same dealer I paid for the PPI too).

I’m not in a huge hurry anyway. I plan to get something in March 2018 when the Winter is winding down. My main choices are the FF, F430 spider, Cali, Cali 30 or Cali T or maybe a McLaren 570.

I did notice the FF dropped $15,000 to $30,000 across the board when the Lusso physically arrived at the dealer. I am hoping the same thing will happens to the Cali T when the Portofino shows up. How it depreciates afterwards I won’t worry about.

 

My crystal ball says - $60's can happen in 2018/2019 for low optioned Cali's with very high miles (40's-50K+ miles) cars or cars with issues (interior, exterior, paint), or ones with accident history prominent in Carfax.

Otherwise, Cali should technically bottom out around 80's for pristine low mileage examples (Less than 20K miles) - that is once Portofino is more prevalent on roads. The naturally aspirated Cali could possibly become a collectors item. There is a limited number of them produced in 4-years or so after all.

My theory is that below 80's the affordability opens doors for many new customers who would otherwise not be in F-car market. Hence the stability at that price point. I don't think they will ever go the route of Maserati Coupe's that fell to 20's before entering the collectors scopes. That said, only pristine examples are sought after and not all will qualify. The high cost of upkeep and repair will always be a barrier for joe public.

In my quest, I opted for a fully loaded 10 for a base 13. 13 was $20K more, but 10 with all options was extremely desirable. I couldn't buy without LED steering, CF interior, and Daytona seats.

 

Wow that pretty optimistic, I didn't figure that they would dip that much. But if you are going to be in the market for a Cali the next couple of years is defiantly going to be the time to pull the trigger.

 

Azlin there are plenty in the 90-110K range on ebay. $100K-$105K buys you a well optioned 2010 in real life. Some advertise at 112K but will sell for less. I relaized when I was shopping that 4-5K negotiation was pretty normal. Hell I negotiated a rosso 2013 for $122 with 18K miles but didn't pull trigger due to low options. Ended up buying a 2010 fully loaded for 110K drive-out (originally offered at $109K plus tax title doc (another $9K)with 12K miles.

 

Happy wife , happy life


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Yeah Ive been watching them for about the same amount of time as you have, and like out had a ppi done on one in July but it needed a whole lot of work.

After re reading your comment I guess I can see them dipping into the 60s but I'd guess it would be a while, probably 2019. What you paid is my current cap ( wife says it's already too high) so I figure in 9 months when I get real serious anything I save under my cap is Brownie points with my wife.

 

I am not sure if you are buying outright or financing but on finance, that last 10-15K does not affect much on the payment overall. The newer you get, better the interest rate (So there is a cutoff, for most banks its 3 years (lowest rate) then 5 years (slightly higher) , then anything older with high rate) and hence due to age, at this time its possible to get a 13 around same payment/note as an 11 or 12.

I get bored very easy and change cars like crazy when I was much younger. Now I tend to hold them for at least couple years. I think the longest I have held on to any car has been my Maserati coupe that I held for 4.5 year I think ONLY because I could not easily sell it.

I want to enjoy Cali now, maybe in three-four years I'll get the Portofino or a 458 (I like 458'over 488 - but they sit lower than my Cali and are hard to get in-n-out of). Portofino is pure sex.

 

I'll finance a portion of the car, and mostly for me it's important to have a number I won't go over on all expenditures that way I know what I'm paying for what. I do know the newer stuff can get me a really good rate but I was going to be able to finance about 45k on a 2010 Cali in July for 2.99% which in reality is peanuts considering I get a higher return with my money invested.

 

and at least 700 cali Ts were taken to get a TDF

 

Don't figure them anywhere near 60k in the next 4 years.

 

the ones I think he was refering to were ones that were high miles AND in need of quite a bit of maintenance. in that aspect yes i can see that happening. I even see CPO in the mid 80k range in the next 1.5 to 2 years which is HIGHLY probable considering right now there have been several in the upper 90k range. and decent examples ranging from mid 70k to 110k depending on options miles and color combos.

 

Agree Azlin75, but I think dealers will continue to sell CPO's close to 100's for a while as I think CPO market is 5-years or newer so by 2020 it will be only T's that you could buy as CPO. The naturally aspirated Cali will fall below the CPO market.

 

Im pretty sure its longer then 5 years since Ferrari of Denver has a 2008 612 on CPO but scottsdale has a 2007 612 that isnt on the CPO program. So while i cannot find a concrete definition of what the rules are for Ferrari pertaining to CPO it appears that they have a 10 year CPO program. That being said i can see some examples being offered CPO in the upper 80s low 90s considering we are seeing examples now in the upper 90s offered CPO (2 in New York, 2 in Denver, 1 in Scottsdale to name a few i have noticed). So it seems logical to see some of the higher mile, less optioned cars being offered in the 80's. But if that does happen it will give you one heck of a bargaining chip with these other dealers because CPO gives you 1 years scheduled maintenance, Ferrari roadside assistance and warranty.

 

General rule of thumb for newer Ferraris is they bottom out at roughly 30% of MSRP. Normally this happens around the 10-year mark.

BTW, the older the car, the less options matter.


Sent from my iPhone using FerrariChat

 

I think options will matter over the course of the next few years as more of these cars are traded in on Portofinos and the californias are scooped up that become available.

The thing I'm wondering about is just how far they will fall before stablizing and recovering values, specifically the naturally aspirated models. I think the Cali 30 will carry a premium even over the newer cali t

 

Like the look. I suppose the early transmission issues are mostly sorted out?