Investment Predictions

I’d love to see actual returns on a collector’s inventory. Timing is everything. Buy a 275 for $1,000,000 and sell for $3,000,000 20 years later is not a good ROI. And what about the guy who paid $3,000,000? Is he going to sell for $6,000,000 in 10 years?

If you’re a jillionaire, this is chump change. But a good investment? No way.

 

The 550 is a good one to invest in right now

 

16M has room to grow in value - it’s unique and very rare, and still fairly accessible price wise I think!


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Agreed, no CS convertible preceding it, and the Spec A is a nearly $1M car. And only 500 built so it has rarity too…..

 

10% a year sounds good to me for a fun use of capital.

 

7-8 digit blue chip cars are one thing, 6 digit cars are another. 6 digit cars are usually higher production so are far from a sure thing, are much more sensitive to mileage and accident history, and maintenance costs will eat into profit margin. Best just to enjoy them, and if u make a profit on selling, count yourself lucky.

 

This is an excellent point. Sometimes people just look at the gross profit. Consider the carrying costs. Even if the owner never drives it, there are storage costs, insurnace costs, and even if not driven, there are still maintenance costs.

 

"Investors" at this level have a lot of investment opportunities with higher returns and lower risk. However, if you have the dough and like cars, go for it.

 

That said, because I'm a poor boy, I'm a bottom feeder. I like to buy cars at the bottom of their depreciation cycle, not while on the way down. I'd be wary, for example, of late model Californias and Portofinos. The flip side is not driving while you are waiting for the last shoe to drop.

 

This ^, especially for us older people.

At my funeral I want people to say, "Gee that guy sure owed me a lot of money"!

 

Hi, my evening thoughts.
Until few years ago any new car depreciated after its first sale, her price climbing back on the threshold of classis status.
Here in Italy for instance on classic cars you pay just 100 € of road collision insurance per year plus 20 € of road tax and that’s it. And if you want to insure it against theft it is about 1% of the insured value per year.
So while maintenance is a constant, insurance and road tax are among the big drivers of classic prices because before the car’s 20th year the ownership cost is much bigger.
Talking of specific models, few years ago, like in 2017-2018 you could find 360s at 45-50k€, but then in ‘99 and 2020 while the first production models got the classic status their prices started to climb and now the lowest price for a 360 F1 is around 80k€ (70k€ in the rest of Europe).
When 7-8 years ago I remeber a gated black 360 on sale at 40k€!
But then as soon as the classic status is gotten the prices tend to flatten, and the next model comes in like the 430 in the last 2-3 years, etc.
And then lately there was this additional hype for the NAs and the gated, yes, but… for instance I have a carbed 208 and now it seems that carbs on a 308 or 208 aren’t anymore a premium driver over the injection.
So can we be confident that in 10-20 years a NA or a manual transmission will still be this desirable for the elecrified drivers of the future? Today we say yes, but the future is unpredictable by definition. Guessable, at most.

Rarity.
A 360 or a 430 are not rare by Ferrari standards, yet in the last years they have grown in market price way more than the more vintage models like 308s and similar.
Why?
I believe that tied to production volume is desirability. And low volume with low desirability is probably worse than higher volume with higher desirability.
So, as imo desirability can hardly be measured and forecasted, my key attitude to get a car as a potential “investment” is to get the one that is just exciting me the most.
And then if you are lucky some day other drivers will be excited as well and will make it appreciate.

Because come on, we can calculate for days and nights and ask for advice, but a Ferrari purchase is ultimately made by heart.
And if your heart beats today for any model, someday in the future there’s a high probability that that same car will make somebody else’s heart beat.
But if you buy with rational criteria, or a spreadsheet, or based on any number, a car that isn’t making your heart beat as fast, I don’t see any reason why it should become more desirable (and valuable) for others.

Blue chips.
A month or so ago I remember a yellow 250 SWB sold by RMSotheby’s Paris at 9 million, her low estimate. And her average price since years.
But, should you have 9 million to invest, would you really buy such an asset, with crazy maintenance, storage, insurance costs?
And would you really drive such an “investment” asset for pleasure?

Conclusion.
Anyhow my 208 GTB, one of the greatest beauties on Earth, is now on sale. If anybody wants to make an investment, he’s welcome!




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My take:

You have to ask.. "who is going to buy my car?"

For blue chip inventory, usually started off the production line as the most expensive car Ferrari or Porsche made, it starts day one being 10x more expensive than a persons house, to be purchased by peeps with big big bucks. Those cars (288, Enzo, LaF, etc.) never become cheap. Ferrari's, even in 1980, were still 3 times the average yearly income in the country. Hasn't changed much relatively in this county.

For the next 30 years, who si going to have the money to buy the car, and particularly what poster did they have in their room when they were teens. There's the new Ferrari buyer.. and there is the used Ferrari buyer. The buyer 20 years from now will not be the same buyer today, as they have not been the same buyer 20 years ago. What car do millennials love (hint never heard anyone under the age of 50 say about a 550 "I want that car") because they're going to be the generation that puts their boomer parents in a home and blows away the inheritance.

 

That's not 10% per year. Starting with $1mm and compounding only annually, 10% per year after 20 years would be $6,727,500.

Doing the same math ($3mm after 20 years, starting with $1mm) would be an APY return of about 5.7%.

 

Must be why everyone is selling 275s

 

This

 

275s are not 550s. There has been a growing shift in the way younger people view cars, and I believe older exotics will just be old cars to many of them in 30years. I equate it to how I view Pierce Arrows. Love the look of the roadsters, but I wouldn’t want to own one. The Duesenburg market seems safe, but cords, Pierce Arrows, etc all seem to be declining relative to inflation.
Long story short, cars are assets. Some appreciate, but most don’t.

 

355 (stick)
F430 (stick)

Lots of others, but they are millions of dollars already.

 

550 barchetta.

Best deal in the Ferrari world.

12 cylinder classic Ferrari.

6 speed.

Limited production to 449 cars world wide

One off bodywork (series run)


What 12 cylinder Ferrari v12 convertibles are under 1 million?

 

575 SuperAmerica

Under $300k

I know it’s an F1..but only 559 made

 

812 GTS

 

If you want to discuss the Barchetta, you might also consider the in period competition, the Lamborghini Diablo Roadster. Same general worldwide production (less than 500), more hp (530 vs 485), gated manual, mid-engine (important), and a much better top situation.

And for now, are less expensive by a good margin.

 

I'm super splitting hairs..m and I say this to guenon cheek...

It's a targa. Not a convertible.

Overall I think 575s are very under valued though.

 

Well that is still in current production. Also not a manual.

 

It's an interesting data point but I would say historically no one compares the models to what else was available at the time.

No one compares a 350gt to a 250 or a 275...

A Daytona to a Maserati?

The cars are often looked at insiglarlu.

Also... The diable is a targa. And the only thing it has going for it is the roof compared to the usability and ease of maintaince of a 550.