is the bubble due to burst?

how much of a price is bubble, how much of it is related to inflation, and how much of a price goes into a collector's premium ? We are facing $5 gasoline, when it was $.30 before the initial fuel shortage of the 1970's. Ferrari was a approx a $10,000 +/- car new from the Enzo era, now is a $200,000 + car new... gold was approx $40 an ounce now it's approx $1600... 330 GTC for approx $10,000 new, now $800,000... notice the realtionships... the ratio's are not that far apart... current average pricing seems to be very close in value to historical pricing, allowing for some collector appreciation for scarcity, which doesn't leave much room for a significant bubble premium. We will not get back to $.30 gasoline or $40 gold or $ 10,000 new Ferrari... if one has the resources...buy your favorite...agreed the numbers are high, but the value is close to where it was back in the day... what's a few extra dollars for something that is desired / appreciated.

 

When you look at the prices achieved by tye micro car collec5ion this week, you have to stop and wonder if we havent passed the point of no return.

Some of these micro machines sold for 100/200/300k..

Classic Driver - MAGAZINE - auctions

 

When people start asking if its a bubble, chances are it is.

 

I thought the premise here was restricted to Ferrari... if one includes "Detroit iron" and other cars that were massed produced, then I would be concerned that the market definitely has gotten ahead of itself... there is an entire industry centered on supplying replacement parts for restoration, one probably can actually build a new car from replacement parts alone... that market is definitely hot and wide in scope with a lot of restoration shops building cars for big profits...the sheer number of cars being "restored" makes one wonder what the absorption rate will be once the current crop of collectors moves on... there definitely could be some excess supply of these cars in the future allowing for price degradation...for now nostalgia and novelty rules

 

Some times when we make exceptions and give explanations its ourselves we're trying to convince.

 

This thread should really only be limited to Ferrari. Ferrari's played by different rules in the last bubble and play be different rules again in this shall we call "frothy" period?

The "Detroit iron", at least muscle car (Hemi, Shelby, etc.) popped in 2007 and have not recovered. Remember 7 figure hemi cuda' convertables or the $4MM GM Futurliner?

 

That used to be true, but these days there is a bubble in bubbles.

 

Iirc, a cuda conv sold for 1.5m recently.

 

Andrew if you were a midget you would not be talking this way. You'd think the prices are right on!

 

Minicars Attract Mega Interest at RM's Record-Setting Bruce Weiner Microcar Museum Sale...



RM Auctions – The Bruce Weiner Microcar Museum top 12 sales:

1. 1958 F.M.R Tg 500 “Tiger” - $322,000

2. 1951 Reyonnah - $184,000

1958 Goggomobil TL-400 Transporter “PEZ” - $172,500
4. 1955 Inter 175A Berline - $161,000

5. 1959 Goggomobil TL-400 Transporter Pickup “Coca-Cola” - $138,000

6. 1963 Goggomobil TL-250 Transporter “Dubble Bubble” - $132,250

7. 1955 Fuji Cabin - $126,500

8. 1964 Peel P50 - $120,750

9. 1955 Messerschmitt KR 200 “Vic Hyde” - $115,000

10. 1957 Messerschmitt KR 201 Roadster - $103,500

11. 1966 Peel Trident - $103, 500

12. 1957 Jurisch Motoplan Prototype - $103,500
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And, certainly, if I find out about it, it has been around for a while.

 

If you ask yourself "can I get
a second mortgage to buy one
of these ?"

than yes, it's a bubble !

 

I can only hope, then maybe I'll have a chance to purchase the Lusso I've always wanted!

 

They were selling bubble cars,,no wonder the results!!

 

The Time magazine cover syndrome. Once a fad hits Time it's all ready over.

 

The fact that dealers are buying cars, holding them for a short period, and then selling them to other dealers (for a mark-up) is telling. When those speculators no longer have the ability to flip the cars after a short holding period for a significant profit, they will exit the market and a significant portion of the buy-side interest in these cars will evaporate, taking the market down with it. It happened in real estate and it will happen with collector cars.

 

I personally don't know of any of my friends kids with posters of cars on their walls. Seems to be mostly video game characters. There is also a stat out there, where kids don't really seem that keen on driving either.

When I was a kid, I had the countach posters, testarosssa posters, build the model cars, and rode my bike down to the local dealer.

Old cars are viewed as just that...old cars nothing more. When I say such and such a car is worth 1 million, they look at me and say "so what, I would never pay that, I'll buy a Bugatti Veyron instead.

 

As people with taste mature and become more refined their tastes mature and broaden with them.

 

And there in lies the problem. No taste. It's the latest and greatest or nothing. They all want the newest thing out there.

 

Careful with generalizations.

Some in my generation (and below) are quite fond of the classics, and a few will even be able to afford them in the future.

Not that many of us have to like them, as there are not that many of these cars out there.....

(though I do hope prices go down...perhaps I should pretend to be like the kids you describe.... maybe it's a conspiracy by all of us to get prices down...)

 

I was the same way as a kid. But, while I understood that the old cars were nice, anything older than a Daytona, I thought was too old for me, at the time.

My kids enjoy the classics at the Great Falls cars and coffee, but they get fired up over the newer exotics. At age 4 and 7, I think they are on the right track.

But I do think there is a bubble that is about to pop, or at least hit its over fill valve and bleed off a bit soon.

 

Obviously the people that are still buying up big dont believe there is a bubble. There seems to be a lot of people in that category. I guess they also do not read the papers or car magazines. Makes you wonder.

 

Mind you there are always some so called bargains still in the Ferrari world.

 

I don't like generalizations, but there is some truth to this. My 13-year-old son is really into cars. At this point, he knows cars better than me. Among his friends, not one of them is into cars at all. He has a great driving seat setup for playing GT5 on the PS3 and his friends are never interested in even trying it -- they would all rather play shooting games.

 

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