Is this a bubble?

I don't see a lot of transactions posted here, period. Most of the nice 3x8s for sale are 328s.

 

The high priced sales don't show up on eBay or around here, they are private deals done at shops. They happen more than you would think.

 

This may be. I just answered the question,whether we have any confirmed sale prices.
And the answer remains NO.
We have nothing except a lot of speculation and rumours.

 

Agreed.

Regarding confirmed sales, I know for absolute certain a 1978 GTB recently traded for $80k, and another '77 GTB sold for $95k. Both cars were very nice drivers, not anywhere near nut & bolt restorations.

I'm sure there have been other private party sales in this ballpark over the last several months because I have a couple of friends looking for GTBs that have "just missed" cars in this price range. Like Martin, I suspect many aren't being listed - rather they're being brokered or sold via networking.

 

328s for sale? Where?

 

Well, I've only been into Ferrari for seven years now, (Porsche for 12yrs.) so I can't take credit for the ten year thing. Not into patting myself on the Back, but I am into waving fingers, can you guess which one I'm waving now? Your #1! LOL. All in jest Sean!
Actually some pretty funny post's from some of you in the last few hrs. Have one of my cars completely tore apart in the Garage and the QV is getting the Belt/Bearing treatment by yours truely in the next few months so I totally get the satisfaction factor of doing the work yourself.
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Well, if it is a bubble, my needy euro QV is up for trade for a 3 pedal TDF blue 550 or TDF blue 360CS. Might be talked into a 3 pedal F430 coupe (provided that it's also blue)
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Don't think you would be that happy with any of those cars.

 

Well as a matter of fact, my next car will be a 550575, with a strong preference for TDF Blue. (of course I will keep the others

to buszzpics: I like your car!

 

I do believe now is the time to buy a 308. All though don't think we'll see real crazy numbers, the GTS will become an $70k to $90k and the GTB's will be over a $100k. Having said that, these are the stable market prices. While I don't see a big drop coming, or going back to "normal" levels of the past 18 years. A major increase in price will be killed off.

I'm going to use the R word. Yes, another recession is on the horizon. There is several reasons for this. The main being, its due. U.S enters a recession every 4.5 years. Hence no two term president in the last 100 years, has left office recession free. Obama will be no exception. Signs this is starting to occur. Two things the DOW and Oil, the last two times they converged in the same manor, we experienced a market crashes. Market crashes, credit will freeze. No credit, no toys will be purchased.

This recession will be minor compared to the last one. Hence prices will be stable, not falling but not rising either.

 

Can i borrow your chrystal ball. I need to buy some cars soon

 

Not sure I agree with all of this.

308s are benefiting by being the only affordable two-seater classic Ferrari in a market where everything older than the 308 costs more than an average house. These cars are chump change for wealthy enthusiasts, and with 4,139 GTBs and 8,010 GTSs that's only about 1 1/2 years of production by modern Ferrari standards. NOT a lot of cars. So yes, I think a price rise is due and probably a sustainable one.

On the economy, your crystal ball needs a service. The 2007-2008 crash was not a normal recession, and the US economy is on a roll (particularly with better employment numbers). I work with economists all day. Biggest risk is the Euro zone, which is still fundamentally flawed in its structure (currency "managed" by multiple sovereign entities.) We would be better with Glass Steagall reinstated, but that's politically unlikely given Washington's allegiance to Wall Street.

 

Are there more Fchatters than me, who get PM with unrequested 308 offers ?

Best Regards
Martin

 

Yes, quite a few for the 308 VR

 

Yes, from people with only one or two posts? The scammers are coming. One even asked if he could buy all my cars and pay with a money order (probably fake). Calling the bank to verify funds is a must. Don't let your cars out of your sight.....LOL.

 

haha, roger that

 

Wait till spring. Most of the US is in deep freeze at the moment.

 

I got a quick ride in a local 550 rolling with a novitec exhaust a few weeks ago. Just like getting to meet your childhood heroes. Interior seems to be the weak point on these cars while the 308 interior is just phenomenal.

 

I do agree on all the points you make on the 308, except one. The price rise will be killed off due to another recession. But the prices will remain stable, like the last recession.

The only thing that made 2007-2008 different, was the exposure stocks had to real estate, including GM and Chrysler. In the 1930's the U.S separated stocks and real estate, built a "Chinese" wall. Clinton to bubble up from the 90's recession tore down the wall. The what was not normal was the norm in the 20's and 30's. Help create the Great Depression.

I don't listen to economists, never met a rich one. Better unemployment numbers, they can be skewed to look better then they are. Going into 07, the economic data looked positive, all industries posting strong sales growth and predicting 07 was going to be a great year.

Data can lie, but charts don't.
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While I do believe a economic pull back is coming in a couple years, that chart doesn't really back your thesis. 2 different patterns '07 and now.

 

Yes definitely, and not just the VR cars.

 

Not the only chart I'm going by. We are near the same as the begging of 07. Difference economic data is actually the weakest growth period since Carter and the 1970's. Like Carter going into Reagan, we will see another recession. The stock market is alarming close to a major crash. Oil and stocks, its exactly the same as 07. All the pundits are saying low oil is good for the economy, just as they did in 07.

The this time it will be different, is the recession will be less severe, because Obama has failed to create a big bubble. Smaller bubble, smaller burst.

 

Yawn.....
This thread should now be moved most far away from us petrolheads into the politics and religion section.

 

It's an economic thread focusing specifically on 3x8 pricing. Discussion on factors behind the pricing would be expected. Considering its one of the most viewed/ replied threads suggests most members find it an interesting topic.

Boom

 

Low oil is good for the economy. (Not the Russian economy, but the US economy.) We're seeing sustainable growth, not Internet-bubble growth.

Regardless, Ferrari 308s are hardly expensive, so the notion of a bubble is hard to support.

The interesting question is more with vintage Ferraris. Lamborghinis and Porsches, where the price curves have been steep and upward for 5+ years. How much of it is a legitimate escalation in values as "analogue" cars recede further into the past and enthusiasts get desperate to have one, and how much is market hysteria associated with getting on board before the curve reaches its peak? I think there is some froth. OTOH, it's also true that a Daytona, Countach or early 911/356 will never be made again, and have a character that is hard to measure. They have some of the charm of vintage watches, where aesthetics determine value. The price of a Gallardo will never dictate the price of a Countach; the F12 will never do that for a Daytona; and a 991 has no relation to values of a 356 Carrera, etc. The new cars are throwaways. The old cars... probably never, and if you're an enthusiast that's reason enough to want one.

Add to that the stupidity of the depreciation curves associated with the new models, and the vintage/classic cars seem less expensive than they are.