Jim- Lusso is not a $250K car yet!!

the "4thOA in class" confused me. 4th in class, 22nd OA. Still impressive. Cool car.

 

TOTALLY AGREED!!!!

 

Tell that to the guy who owns a 360! Jim

 

Mais Non.

May.

 

I am an idiot when it comes to finances but when I look at my house in Seattle, my house in Durham, my retirement portfolia and everything is down by at least 25% (range 20 to 68%) and I heard that China is in trouble, I have to believe that the old ferraris including mine are going down in the near future. Then again, finances is not my game, just pure observation

 

A good one.

 

When I was growing up, a neighbor had a rough "old Ferrari" tucked away in his garage (a PF SII coupe, as memory serves). The guy was on my paper route and showed his wild-eyed paperboy the car every now and then. I remember him laughing about how he bought it for a pittance in the early 70's, when "no one wanted an old V12."

Obviously, this isn't just any old V12 now but I wouldn't cling to today's values too closely. We're only entering year two of what will likely be a lengthy financial crisis. Many of the wealthy folks who made so much money these recent years have fueled the vintage F-car market and are still well-insulated today. But how well insulated will they be in, say two, three or more years of continued struggle? How interested in large cash assets like 250 GT/L's will the traders and entrepreneurs be if this becomes a prolonged depression?

A Lusso could well become "affordable" again, given time. But the cost of that affordability is something I'd rather our world didn't see.

 

Good heaven John!!! Posts like that might make him go back to the A.C.D. forum and post more ignorant questions about J-446 ( Like..."Are my windows safety glass" ?)............Pen touches lavender paper.

 

Many of the wealthy folks who made so much money these recent years have fueled the vintage F-car market and are still well-insulated today. But how well insulated will they be in, say two, three or more years of continued struggle? How interested in large cash assets like 250 GT/L's will the traders and entrepreneurs be if this becomes a prolonged depression?

I think this is a very valid question. I am not a doom and gloom kind of guy but I see this taking at least 3 years to unwind. I know a lot of very wealthy people have large investments in comerical real estate and that tsunami has not yet hit but it is coming. It is hard to keep in that game with 2 -3 years of downturn.

 

For Geno that likely won't matter. He's really a guy who loves cars and isn't restoring his GTL as an economic endeavour he's doing it because he wants to have a great GTL. He's also a guy who'll buy a GTB if prices break and keep and use that as well but I think the point is a good one and others will bail as things get worse.

As an aside you're right about commercial real estate. That pain has just begun.

 

How much higher than reserve do you think they put the 'low estimate'?
I recently saw a Lusso with low estimate 320k pounds which didn't sell at 260k pounds highest offer. I guess they weren't bluffing that much.

 

Asking prices for Lusso's seem to be around 600k now. BUt lot of them have POA anyway so maybe the market softening is not that visible.
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Admittedly, I am a bit doom and gloom about the current situation. I believe that it is much worse than is being discussed in the business media and the global element (particularly falling exports in Asia) is just beginning. Additionally, as you and Jim pointed out, the big commercial real estate wipeout is just starting. That's been the source of a great deal of insulation for wealthy vintage buyers and it appears to be evaporating, quickly.

My feeling is that after a solid four+ years of recession/depression, as even the wealthy begin to live on savings, prices on cash assets (that happen to be symbols of wealth) will be slashed far beyond what's been discussed here. The Lusso only hit the serious bucks recently so I would imagine it could recede well beyond the prices of a number of years back. But, as with all things, there will be a recovery and prices will rise again. I'm just not optimistic about when!

 

I am too young to remember scale of 90s crisis correctly but I think today the situation is worse. And in 90s prices in high end of vintage market went down something like 60 or 70%...

 

Rising defaults by affluent homeowners are raising the specter of another cloud over banks and investors, which could get stuck with thousands of expensive homes. About 6.9% of prime "jumbo" loans were at least 90 days delinquent in December, according to LPS Applied Analytics, a mortgage-data research firm. The rate was up sharply from 2.6% a year earlier.

The high end meltdown is just starting. This mortgage delinquency stat eye opening. I think we will see some Lusso's and other high dollar vintage Ferrari's up for sale.

 

The longer and deeper this recession gets, the more it seems Jim's early forecast of where Ferrari prices were & are heading are coming true.

I have to give him credit for seeing this bad storm coming our way.

 

I,too, relate this "recession" to the great depression of the 30's. My old friend Asa Clark used to swear that he bought a Duesenberg during the depression for $25! We'll see (if we live long enough!).

 

The disposable cars that they cranked out by the thousands, 430s,550s are really taking a hit. The vintage cars are holding on pretty strong.

 

Pre-sale estimates just posted for Bonhams at Quail seem surprisingly strong. I suspect that the high-end vintage market is already coming off the bottom. With massive inflation on the horizon, where else do you put your money ? Monterey will be fun to watch, certainly some interesting cars have come out of the woodwork.

 

The difference with Lussos (I think) is that there's a lot of people who made a ton of money in the past 20 years and who haven't been fazed by the downturn relative to the rest of the country. That means premium goods (like the premier vintage cars, of which I believe Lussos are one) haven't been nailed like everything else...

Such as the 355's and 360's, which have certainly come way down. But has anyone looked at 911's and Boxsters lately? They're practically giving them away. I jest, but not by much.

 

I think heated discussions are really good from time to time so you all can go screw yourselves. Hee, hee. Just kiddn' everyone. I love to ruffle feathers from time to time too. I think as a society we are castrating ourselves by trying to be PC all the time. We are becoming *****fied so let's piss each other off from time to time in the name of fun.

 

I love it, someone with a head on their shoulders and not up their arse about the economy. Very few are calling this a depression, although name one recession that has gotten this bad this quick? It is much worse than we are told. The FDIC is virtually out of money so don't count on that. Sure you'll get paid but read the fine print. How long do they have to pay you back? ASAP. That could be years and still be ASAP. The US government is already out of money. Obama has admitted that again just the other day. Why do you think Geitner just came back from a two month world tour trying to sell our debt?

So all this being said, and I could give example after example, it is not necesarrily doom and gloom. Just depends on your outlook. Reality is that this is the greatest opportunity since the Great Depression. The wealthiest families in modern history got their start during the Great Depression. Why not any of us? Don't think this is close to The Great Depression? That's fine but I belong to the camp that makes fun of the stupidity and we call this "The Great Recession" as a pun.

The Chedder, you are right, this isn't over yet. If this were in a baseball game we would be in the 5th inning or so. There is much more wealth that is going on the chopping block. The true bottom is supposed to be around the middle of 2012. The real bottom in the stock market is supposed to be 2011, however it is not supposed to go down again untill around November.

 

So I guess I should be planning to get my Lusso around 2012, then!

I do think either a Lusso, a PF Coupe, or a 275 short nose will be my next Ferrari. May be a few years, though. I usually let the car find me, rather than looking for one.