New Plane Market in 2018

The flood had a lot to do with that...

 

How can you get so many things wrong in the be post? You continually amaze me rookie.

No Mustangs available on market less than 1.2 MM except one run out dog in France that needs 600k worth of engine overhauls. NONE. Go check and I’ll wait,

My flights to CHS, MIA, and EYW spend 70-80% if their time above 390. WITH four on board and full fuel.

Notice how you didn’t have an answer to my real time weather question.

BTW Sigar the reason the Mustang was discontinued was that Cessna was selling far more of its successor ... the M2 (Mustang 2 - get it?)

Anyone that argues that FL280 airplanes have the same weather capability as FL410 airplanes is showing their inexperience in the Flught Levels.

 

I would put the Columbia/TTx in that category as well.

 

The flood may have been the beginning of the end, but that was in 1972. I’m sure my memories from the late 70s pale in comparison to Piper’s heyday, but sometime in 1981 or ‘82, they packed everything and moved to Florida. Word around town was that they were struggling. The flood may have been the beginning, but the economics of general aviation in the early to mid 80s was the bigger problem.

 

The end of the investment tax credit for new aircraft put a huge damper on the new aircraft market in the mid-1980s. Before that, it was often cheaper to buy a new aircraft than a used one, leading to massive over-production in the 1970s and early 1980s.

 

No, that was just quicker depreciation. In the 1970s and early 1980s you could get a tax CREDIT for buying an airplane. Not just more of a writeoff, but an actual credit.

 

Look man.... you're just flat out lying about the utility of the Mustang. If what you say is true they wouldn't have sold new for $4MM+ and now be trading for less than $1MM. "Asking prices" don't matter.... only "selling prices" matter. It's Sunday and there are 47 PC12's flying right now and ZERO Mustangs. The market doesn't lie.

Would also be super cool if you could debate airplanes without the personal attacks. I guarantee you're not as tough in real life as you are behind a keyboard.

 

Well yeah, I am...but I digress

Lol calling you a rookie isn’t a personal “attack” Jason, just a joking little dig at your lack of high altitude experience. Get over yourself.

The Mustang sold for 2.2 million new in 2007, not 4 million as you keep bandying about. Basic facts seem to be a problem with your arguments. I doubt ANY Mustangs ever sold for that,,, matter of fact the new M2 barely sells for that.

Lying about utility?

Hmmm. 5333 empty weight plus 2569 fuel plus 2 men at 200 lbs plus 2 women at 120 lbs plus 150 lbs bags and I’m still under gross with full tanks...enough to fly at FL410 1000 nm with reserves or 3;30 (as much time as I like sitting in one session). So...what’s your point?

BTW my airplane fits in a normal 50’ T hangar... does yours?

I have a factory mobile service unit that can be called in 4 hours to fix (including parts) anywhere...,do you?

The PC12 sells for 5 million new so NATURALLY it’s going to resell for a lot more.
You’re argument makes as much sense as saying a 458 doesn’t resell for as much as a F12TDF. Well, ,,, yeah.

You can throw out insults about “old timer” and “ old way of thinking about things” but you can’t take it in return.

No wonder your posts about the “mighty Pilatus” are a running joke here. You make it too easy.

Chill out it’s just airplanes. BTW I think the Pilatus is a hell of an airplane. Just saw one at Sun n Fun. Impressive.

 

Uhh, no. The M2 is not the Mustang’s successor. The M2 is a warmed over (G3000 avionics) CJ1, which was a warmed over (Collins Proline) straight CJ. The M2 airframe has noting in common with the Mustang. The M2 airframe (CJ) was the mustang’s Predecessor by about 20 years. You’re not going to school me on the Cessna light jet line. I’ve owned 5 of them. 501, 560, 525A, 525A, 525B.

 

It IS considered the upgrade to the Mustang though Sigar. You know that. That’s why the Mustang was discontinued , not lack of market appeal. Cessna likes lines that aren’t “stand-alone” Look what happened to the awesome Columbia/Corvallis line.

 

Ha, ha. Sure. Look Cessna tried out the VLJ market. They did a better job than most (all), but it clearly wasn’t a viable market so they discontinued their VLJ contender. It’s as simple as that. The Great Recession didn’t help and was probably the single biggest factor. Timing is everything.

 

What is the M2 if not a VLJ? BTW can you please point to me the weight that the FAA uses to define a VLJ? The M2 and the Mustang side by side don’t look to much different in size now do they ?

What about the SF50? If the VLJ market isn’t a viable market how do you explain it?

 

No the M2 is a light jet (albeit a small one), not very light jet. VLJ is generally considered to be 10,000 # or less. It’s still too early to tell if the SF50 is viable. Only time will tell and that’s going to take at least another 5 years to be able to make that call. But, if the economy keeps going it might be a success. Again, timing is everything. However, I do think the SF50 entering the market had a lot to do with Cessna deciding to exit that market.

 

I will further go on the record stating I think the Mustang is a fantastic airframe. I’d be honored to own one, and probably will at some time (CJ3 is overkill for what our mission has evolved to). And to further stake out my position by stating that I’ll take two fans spinning behind me over a prop in front of me (even if that prop is being turned by a fan) all day everyday. And, I agree with your affinity for altitude. The market may not agree with me however, and that’s ok. It just means better pricing for me (us).

 

I am incredibly jealous you're picking up a PC24. It's the ultimate single pilot aircraft IMO and it and the Phenom 300 are my dream birds.

However, I will tell you that you're mistaken about FL410. Not only can you top most systems with incredibly rare exception you need very slight deviations for ones you can't. Once you get up there, you'll never want to cruise in the 20s again. I promise you that. The advantage of aircraft that can go to FL430 and higher in the continental US is the better fuel efficiency and more importantly the lack of winds up there going westbound, especially as you get above FL450.

 

I fly Phenom 300 all the time. I know the drill. MOST systems I'm flying through the same holes the 737's are flying through. Like I said.... I've run my PC12 Alaska to Argentina in the last 5 years and all points in between. Never been delayed due to weather.

Up and down the East Coast ATC doesn't let you fly whatever altitude you want. They keep you low in the climb and bring you down low early in descent. I'm in and out to TEB and OPF weekly. Crowded airspace has changed the game. If all my flights were East Coast to Colorado the jet would be the clear winner. Between ATL, OPF, TEB and MDW you don't get to do what you want. You're at the mercy of ATC. A minijet can't do TEB to OPF. You'd have to land for gas.

I'm also in Aspen/Vail a lot. Getting in a and out in the PC12 is easy. Not so much in the jet. Many times the jets are grounded while I'm getting out. Ice covered runways are no issue with the PC12.... I don't use the brakes. The jet isn't a step up from PC12. It's a step sideways.... which is why Pilatus sells so many PC12's.

I think the new Denali and future PC12's will be 300+ knot airplanes. That's gonna put a lot of pressure on the single pilot jet market.

 

Here are the single pilot airplanes flying in order on a lazy Sunday:

42 PC12 Pilatus PC-12
35 BE20 Beechcraft Super King Air 200
29 B350 Beechcraft Super King Air 350
23 E55P Embraer Phenom 300
18 BE9L Beechcraft King Air 90
14 C25B Cessna Citation CJ3
10 E50P Embraer Phenom 100
9 C25A Cessna Citation CJ2+
4 C25M Cessna Citation M2
8 C510 Cessna Citation Mustang

 

No doubt FL450 is key for West Bound which is why I've stuck with wanting CJ3 or larger only. Look at the winds right now. They're full tilt at FL410... Taper off a lot at FL450. So far there are no single pilot jets that go above FL450.

 

Not quite. The coolest most eye popping single pilot jet out there is the Syberjet SJ30...(Morgan Freeman flies one).

2500 mile range, FL 490 and .80 Mach.

8 MM

 

Yup. Would be great if they were real. That's another plane that should have been out a decade ago. Now it has too much competition.

 

They need a cash partner to get beyond the 7 they have made...including Freeman’s. It’s the best of the bunch strangely enough. Cabin altitude of 7000’ at FL 490!

 

Yeah it's awesome performance. But it's very small and has zero support network. How would one even get "typed"? It's like I said in my first post. Performance is only 50% of the equation.... service, support and marketing make up the other 50% if not more.

Right now, the only company's that are taking chances with the means to do so are Cirrus and Pilatus. It's a shame Cessna is so conservative because they're losing a lot of ground but they have stockholders to answer to. Even if Cessna built a revamped XLS and made it single pilot they'd still be behind the curve. They're at least 10 years late with the Denali.

 

The SJ30 is one of the most troubled developments that still make to a certified aircraft. I remember the original announcement with the interior mock-up displayed at the NBAA Convention. That would have been 1992 or 1993. The went through multiple financial partners - the "S" stands for Ed Swearingen. The "J" stands for Doug Jaffe. At one time it was called the Sino-Swearingen as a Taiwan infusion of money came into the deal. If I remember correctly they got some state money because they planned to create the production manufacturing operation in there (never happened). Finally they ran out of investor money and patience.

Although the aircraft looked good as a paper study not sure that it ever properly fit the real world. A very tiny cabin (think Lear 23 or worse) but with a nearly coast-to-coast range. It was like they wanted to make a cross of a Lear 55, Lear 23 and Gulfstream II. Not really a market sweet spot.