Your dealer may well be correct . Maybe you have seen 'ppg 70' on these forums.He has quite a different view.Has TM 488 + TM Pista.
No really. The challenge engine is based on the 488GTB one. So if the challenge engine is 55% based on the GTB, then the Pista engine can be 90% of the challenge one AND 50% the GTB one (55% x 90% =50%) like @Ferrari 308 GTB says. Or is your dealer, the largest in the nation, telling you the laws of arithmetic are wrong as well?
Soo.... by that “logic” the Ferrari Pista engine and the F8 engine are 45% like the First gasoline engine ever built by Karl Benz. (100%x 90% x 50%)
Ferrari is targeting almost 10K cars produced for 2019 year. According to their IPO records, the trend is V8 sports cars (so not including California/Portofino line) are generally 60% of their total production. So to ballpark, we can assume roughly 6000 cars split across 488 variants and a very few F8 when it starts production end of 2019. Now the general accepted range of Speciale produced was 2500-3000 total. Speciale had about 1.5 year production run. during that time, Ferrari produced about 4500 mid engine V8 cars. So it seems that’s ferrari has no problem producing mostly hardcore variants once it goes into production. Based off of past history and current production numbers, I would guess 2500 -3500 Pista if last month of production is July 2019. Of course it’s all guesses, but at least there’s some historical numbers and trends to involved here, rather than purely ancedotal.
If you want a car, refresh is probably best value for money (just wait for the price to be confirmed though). It's just another car, so you could use it and it will depreciate, that's part of the deal. If you want a speculative investment (or to make a statement), Pista - you may enjoy free ownership and perhaps make a little profit (although Ferrari having set the initial price very high compared to the Speciale for instance, the upside is not guaranteed), but then you'd better use it cautiously since mileage would impact the value. Or just wait for the real next generation, enjoying a relatively cheap 458 or 488 in the mean time.
No brainer the Pista, I have just specced mine up and it should arrive early next year. In the UK all the dealers have said it will be rarer than the Speciale. The F8 is just a mainstream facelift/replacement for the GTB. I would guess the power increase for it has been done as cheap as possible to compensate the power losses for EGPF that I am sure has been added to meet Euro and China emissions. The problem with EGPF it kills a good exhaust sound. Other manufacturers at looking at a synthetic way of producing a good exhaust sound. Not something I would want.
Just get the car that floats your boat. If you want investments out of a car, don't buy a car. Period.
I have an inclination that neither car will hold much resale outside of the normal depreciation curve with a slight edge towards the Pista Spider. The is a new era for Ferrari. These cars are heavily mass-produced and over-produced. Moreover, I have a feeling that Ferrari isn't fully disclosing how many vehicles they are really intending on flooding the market with. Porsche did the same with the 991.2 GT3. It was to be a limited-production vehicle; a one-year car. Suddenly, 2019 models start flying off the shelf. Current-era Ferraris are going to depreciate at faster than historical rates and they will be producing more Pistas and Pista Spiders then we are led to believe. The F8 will continue the sales trend of late 2018 and 2019 488s. Walk into a Ferrari dealership, spec one out, order one up. The days of "qualification" for a cue-in-line are slowly coming to an end...
And how do you get that when they are increasing production by MAYBE 2000 cars per year and opening several new markets such as China that will easily eat that production up? They will forever be under 10,000 cars because of US regulations and the worldwide demand is INCREASING. How long did it take to sell out the Pista allocations, 2 weeks? Most likely Ferrari will go hard up against that 10,000 car limit but the amount arriving on US shores will stay the same (around 3000 cars per year total).
This is nonsense, unfortunately. Only one month ago the CEO said production will likely pass 10,000 this year and the regulatory cost of that is in single digit millions - in other words, pocket change. See answers to questions from Martino de Ambroggi in the below earnings call transcript: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4237157-ferrari-n-v-race-ceo-louis-camilleri-q4-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript If you look at their planned target of doubling earnings, it doesn't take a genius to work out production is going to increase well beyond 10,000.
I have a pista spider on order and absolutely no desire to switch for the f8, coupe or future spider...
Hmmmmm......I was under the impression that they would look to increased margins for earnings growth and not too much to increased volumes. Their new pricing policy would tend to indicate that. So what is your definition of ''well beyond'' 10k units?
I looked carefully at their GAAP and non GAAP reconciliations report Q4 where they planned on increasing production and the subsequent allowances for regulatory burden which is FAR more than the single digit millions you spewed. Ain’t there bud. Production cap is 10,000therefore unit pricing is going up. Or maybe you can point to me which slide in his presentation proves your hypothesis?
I just read the transcript out of interest. The tone of this conversation doesn’t represent what the transcript really says. LC’s first comment is a summary of 2018 financial performance and basically the next thing he says is that they are focussed on brand image and residuals - he stresses it. When he answers the questions about volumes he says (paraphrasing) “we might trickle through 10,000 units this year or not”. For the future, the penalty of going over 10,000 units is not significant but he reiterates that they are very very focused on margins, brand image and residuals, meaning that they will make sure volume is comfortably below demand. They have also invested €637m in 2018 and plan another €750m in 2019 on model range development, in particular hybridisation. This sounds to me like they are full of confidence, not about to do something that will threaten the rich mix and strong margin approach that fits so well with a super-exclusive brand and that volumes at the cost of residuals and exclusivity is definitely off-the-table. Choose whether to believe him but he will have a hard time with the market if he is misleading because his comments leave no room for manoeuvre.
In the same way as one can only lead a horse to water, I already provided the link in my reply. Below is a relevant extract: Martino de Ambroggi The first question is on volumes, because in '18, they were up 10%, for the current year you gave an indication of an additional 8% growth. This is a significant jump compared to the historical growth trend, so should we assume - assuming on the underlying trend going forward? Louis Camilleri Well, as Antonio said, we should be approaching 10,000, we may actually cross that line this year. But going forward, I think, as we said earlier, we will very much focus on revenues and margins rather than volumes. So I wouldn't anticipate that the volume growth would continue at an item at that sort of pace. There is no production cap at 10k like you keep dreaming up. And I didn't "spew" the single digit million number as you claim. The CEO did: Martino de Ambroggi Well, I was concerned in case of cost and close to double-digit growth that the waiting lists could have been avoided instead of being the usual 18 to 24 months, but these shouldn't be the case. So, could you remind us what are the implications in terms of penalties and so on, but you have to pay for the threshold, the 10,000 threshold when you pass this threshold. Louis Camilleri It's not significant. It's sort of high single-digit millions, but I mean the more important point is volumes relative to the order book and the exclusivity, rest assured that we are very, very focused on that. And as you'll see, the new models coming out and the pricing associated with those models and the technology and innovation and design features you will understand better how focused we are on brand image and exclusivity. So unless you are saying that the CEO of a publicly quoted company is wilfully misleading the investors on an earnings call, there's nothing further to discuss.
In one final attempt at helping with your reading comprehension issue, the analyst's question refers to 10 and 8% volume growth in the last two years. The CEO is guiding towards a lower growth in volumes. So even if they hit 10k this year which he says is a possibility, volume would keep growing, albeit at a lower pace, beyond 10k.. There is NO 10,000 production cap - that is a figment of your imagination.
My guess is Pista has Ti connecting rods, exhaust manifold and turbo geometry, and intake-header topography from the challenge car in addition to all the programming changes required to make it all go together. I am not sure what else there is left from the challenge car to adopt!
