News

488 Pista Spider outlook

Discussion in '458 Italia/488/F8' started by Scraggy, Jun 13, 2019 at 4:32 PM.

  1. Scraggy

    Scraggy Formula 3
    Rossa Subscribed

    Apr 2, 2012
    1,502
    England
    Full Name:
    Scraggy
    Obviously nobody buys Ferrari’s anticipating a cheap overall experience and clearly the joys of ownership etc are (or should be) the main driver.

    However a lot of folks, me included, have purchased quite a few mainstream cars hoping to 1. Enjoy the driving experience of the specials (eg tweaked power end slightly lighter weight); and 2. Lower the cost of the overall ownership experience by offsetting mainstream depreciation (and sometimes illiquidity) through owning the odd appreciating vehicle.

    Regarding 488 Pista Spider outlook, the contrast with 458SA is not encouraging. It is clearly a “superior” car in many ways but it is not numbered, subsequent models already launched are very fast, its not last of the N/A etc, Ferrari launching a “better” model every quarter. Climate issues are getting higher profile, urban driving legislated. Nor is 488 arguably an overly “loved” model. I think 488 depreciation may overtake 458 at some point, other than the SA of course.

    Keen to get guidance from you all please as to whether you think Pista Spider is a reasonably safe place for one’s savings, ignoring all the other pleasures involved.

    I had a 458 SA for 3 years and have a Spider inbound. I have owned > 15 Ferrari’s. Based in UK.

    Thanks so much.
     
    bretty2901 likes this.
  2. SoCal to az

    SoCal to az F1 Veteran
    Silver Subscribed

    Nov 25, 2012
    5,056
    Arizona
    No modern car unless over a million bucks is safe.

    Senna, la Ferrari, Monsza, 918 etc etc will do fine. The rest will depreciate.
     
  3. C50

    C50 Formula Junior
    Silver Subscribed

    Aug 19, 2016
    438
    808
    My comments are from the vantage of a spectator only, so take them for what they’re worth (<$0.02 at current exchange):

    I believe the Pista and P Spyder mark the end of an aberrant automotive period spanning from 360 CS to F12 TDF.
    Even the hint of limited P/PS production (see F40 numbers and likely any other model w a plaque stating “1/X” as opposed to the actual number) is gone and Ferrari has gotten wise to aftermarket valuations and responded with price increases to leave nothing in the table.
    I think the main impact of this will be what you described as “lowering the overall cost of ownership”: my opinion is that those days are past.
    I personally don’t feel like it’s a death knell for the marque, just an indicator of its evolution, financial and otherwise.
    Does the PS represent a “safe place for one’s savings”? I vote no.
    But it is a sweet looking ride and I wouldn’t kick it out of my garage (although I personally wouldn’t trade my Pista allocation for a Spyder)

    On the same topic but more generally, I’ve often wondered just how many Ferrari owners who have purchased multiple limited cars have actually come out ahead financially when all the other base cars’ depreciation costs have been factored in, versus simply lowering the cost of ownership as you so aptly put it.
     
    09Scuderia, ScottS, johnr265 and 6 others like this.
  4. Scraggy

    Scraggy Formula 3
    Rossa Subscribed

    Apr 2, 2012
    1,502
    England
    Full Name:
    Scraggy
    Thanks so far, super helpful.
     
  5. Scraggy

    Scraggy Formula 3
    Rossa Subscribed

    Apr 2, 2012
    1,502
    England
    Full Name:
    Scraggy
    On the last paragraph (good question) say £225 ahead on the 458SA exit covered about 5/6 years of mainstream cars depreciation. Ignoring costs of capital.
     
    C50 likes this.
  6. BG23

    BG23 Formula Junior

    Jun 16, 2015
    346
    Australia
    I think the pista spider won't hold up as well as the 458 SA, I also don't think the pista will do as well as the speciale longer term. Whilst the SA was limited by number, they were not numbered... read into that what you will. I suspect the number produced of pista spiders produced based on what I am seeing/hearing will be in the region of 20-30% more than the SA. Therefore it should do better than the coupe and probably at least maintain value over the longer term.
     
  7. Challenge64

    Challenge64 F1 Veteran
    Rossa Subscribed Owner

    Jul 28, 2004
    5,295
    Full Name:
    Ron
    also interested in people's comments as well...
     
  8. Scraggy

    Scraggy Formula 3
    Rossa Subscribed

    Apr 2, 2012
    1,502
    England
    Full Name:
    Scraggy
    458 SA softening fast right now, over priced cars not moving
     
    Il Co-Pilota and boobernackle like this.
  9. Shadowfax

    Shadowfax Formula 3

    Jun 10, 2016
    1,962
    Australia
    The same is happening here. A lot of asking but no getting. Prices have tanked for S and SA.

    458 is looking quite dated now so unless the price is right I couldn't see why anyone would want to pay over odds for an outdated lesser performing car.

    Re Pista and Spider I can't see these cars appreciating in value either nor see one being worth more than the other.
     
  10. NeilF8888

    NeilF8888 Formula Junior

    Feb 10, 2005
    712
    Miami Beach
    With the limited time remaining for 488 production, it’s unlikely more than 799 spiders will be made. That’s approximately the same as the TDF. Considering it’s good looks, performance and the pretty limited quantity to be built I don’t think you’ll get hurt with the Pista Spyder.


    Sent from my iPhone using FerrariChat
     
    Caeruleus11 likes this.
  11. j09333

    j09333 Formula Junior
    Silver Subscribed

    May 7, 2004
    529
    The demand from developing market and economic boom drives up prices I guess and China is now struggling so I think car price right now is at its peak.

    Those who benefited most by owning not 20 but 2 years of lemited cars are only LaF and SA and tdf owners. Enzo and gto was not the same scale. And 360cs owners who benefited was the one holding the car all those years.

    So from now on, my bet is even Icona will not gain premium soon. Only the ones who buy and enjoy cars as it is will benefit most.

    Only my speculation
     
  12. SLDriver

    SLDriver Karting

    May 1, 2005
    241
    Full Name:
    JJ
    I feel like Ferrari is getting away from ultra limited numbered cars and going in the same direction Lamborghini (Performante) & Mclaren (600LT) have been going in which is production limited. I don't buy the whole production limited nonsense because there's no way of knowing how many cars were produced.
     
  13. FFan5

    FFan5 Karting
    Silver Subscribed

    Jul 7, 2018
    119
    Maybe for a year or two. Maybe. However, over any long term period, business are a better place for one's savings. Business are constantly attempting to make more money. Cars have terrible work ethic. They don't hire anyone, they don't delegate. They just sit there.

    If you have money to spend, by all means go for it, but don't pretend you aren't burning cash. I've only had my 458 10 months, and I've already lost 10k compared with owning the DJIA, if anyone would give me what I paid for mine, and they certainly won't.

    Anyone who has owned a 458 since Nov' 2016 (less than three years) has spent 120k, even if someone would gave them what they paid for it! Let's assume you lost just 30k on your trade. That 150k will never come back. It'll keep growing as long as the markets keep going up. In twenty years, owning that 458 for less than three years will probably set you back more than half a million!

    I'm totally cool with YOLO! I just don't pretend I'm not lighting cash on fire. ;-)
     
  14. ipsedixit

    ipsedixit Karting

    You're better off keeping your money underneath your mattress than parking it in a 488 Pista Spider.

    Neither will keep up with inflation, but at least with the mattress you don't have to worry about insurance, gas, tires, parking space, etc.

    And at least with a mattress, it's more comfortable getting comfortable with your significant other than the 488 would be. Those damn seats don't recline very far.
     
  15. Shadowfax

    Shadowfax Formula 3

    Jun 10, 2016
    1,962
    Australia
    When F8 become available for resale in numbers creating similar depreciation levels now seen in 488GTB/Spider, Pista and Pista spider will likely drop considerably. Most used buyers will see F8 as the later tech/ later looking car and with same drive train/performance, so why would anyone pay over the odds for an older used Pista? Pop a couple of stripes on F8 and it looks like a later Pista! Pista and Spider are both cars that need to be bought and used and, accepted they are both going to depreciate.
     
    Roland1688 and tekaefixe like this.
  16. C50

    C50 Formula Junior
    Silver Subscribed

    Aug 19, 2016
    438
    808
    That's an interesting notion I hadn't considered.
    I always presumed the Pista would trade over the F8
    Likely the Pista will suffer disproportionate depreciation but I think the pseudo-limited label of the pista will protect it from trading on par with the F8.
    I've seen neither in the tin, but even from the configurator images I can discern a more purposeful, aggressive appearance of the P c/w F8.
    How much will that be worth in the long run? The market will tell us in due time.
     
    Shadowfax likes this.
  17. Shadowfax

    Shadowfax Formula 3

    Jun 10, 2016
    1,962
    Australia
    #17 Shadowfax, Jun 14, 2019 at 1:56 AM
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2019 at 2:03 AM
    Agree time will tell. Pista will likely trade for a bit more than F8 but not enough to offset that huge entry fee.

    The Lusso/488 game was very high cost as it has worked out. Ferrari did buyers no favors dropping F8 in a market swimming with 488's trying to sell for incoming Pista's.

    Re which is the more aggressive? Looking at the rendering of the F8 with Pista striping it's a toss up imo.

    Holding a 488 trading later on F8 would allow 488's current high depreciation to be amortized over a longer period then stepping into a later car (F8) may prove the wiser move.
     
  18. noone1

    noone1 F1 Rookie

    Jan 21, 2008
    4,233
    Los Angeles
    Full Name:
    Mike
    I think the timing will be brutal on the car. It's going to have no significant time for press or media presence. It's already been replaced by not one, but two similarly priced mid-engine V8 Ferraris -- F8 and SF90.

    I honestly don't even know if the Pista Spiders have even been delivered yet. People just aren't talking about the Pista much anymore, let alone the Spider. I see coupes, but no one seems to have a Spider, yet interest has completely moved on to the SF90.
     
    Shadowfax likes this.
  19. Shadowfax

    Shadowfax Formula 3

    Jun 10, 2016
    1,962
    Australia
    Wait till LB gets dropped out. It ain't gonna get any prettier. Times have changed forever now. Pista is a great car but will fast become old news. It will always hold attraction, but at a price commensurate with the market and other available models.
     
  20. C50

    C50 Formula Junior
    Silver Subscribed

    Aug 19, 2016
    438
    808
    Looks are certainly subjective and I'd wager you are correct that most buyers, factoring in the corporate goal of 30% being first time owners, would be hard pressed to discern a difference significant enough to warrant premium pricing.
    To the OP's original query, this would support the PS being suboptimal financially over the long term.

    I wonder about your idea of trading the 488 for the F8. It will be interesting to see how many present owners opt for that. Perhaps those that yearned for the P/PS allocation and did not receive one will do so, and slap a stripe on it?
    How many of these individuals are holding out hope for an F8 VS?
    Again, back to the OP's original topic, I think the long term P/PS value also will be impacted by whether or not an F8 VS happens. If it does, the premise of a limited version will be diluted, softening the market further.

    Regardless, a good time to be alive with these super-challenging first world tribulations.

    Image Unavailable, Please Login
     
    ZA3879 and Shadowfax like this.
  21. Shadowfax

    Shadowfax Formula 3

    Jun 10, 2016
    1,962
    Australia
    The renderings show the body is the same except the front. Photoshop stripes on F8, change the wheels, and see how much better/Pistarish it looks than w/o! And it can be got with no games!

    On topic with PS - that car is most unlikely to sell for any more than a Pista coupe. Why would it? Using today's 488 gtb and gtb spider actual sale prices as a guide - the spider was more expensive but that difference is not recovered at resale. So there's another loss.
     
  22. Lukeylikey

    Lukeylikey Formula 3
    Silver Subscribed

    Mar 3, 2012
    1,766
    UK
    Pista Spider, in the context of Scraggy’s question, should be fine with one notable imponderable. The track special cars have not always done well with the Scud in particular suffering early in its life. However, economic conditions were poor. I don’t personally believe ‘last-of’ makes too much difference here. Speciale has done well because it is such a wonderful car, not because of being the last of anything. More importantly it is a wonderful Ferrari, built in more limited numbers than its donor car. Scud values have also done rather well during that time too. So a new car is no real barrier to the older car performing well. Pista and Spider are also wonderful cars and what follows them should not, in theory, alter the familiar residual strength of these cars (though Aperta’s more limited status is unlikely to be matched by PS).

    The F8 is not quite as nice looking, which is subjective, not quite as aggressively styled, which is less subjective. It is not as raw and focused - not subjective at all. The PS is also much rarer than an F8 and assumed F8 Spider, therefore I don’t think the F8 will have much to do with Pista or Spider.

    The Pista Spider in my view is the one to have - the first turbo track-special, meaning that this car really is a brilliant road car more than a brilliant track car (truth is that probably applied to the others as well). And the Pista Spider will be more brilliant as a road car than the coupe. Early press reports have said similar.

    So what is the imponderable? There is one car that does represent a genuinely new question for both Pista and Spider. Something we have not seen before and something we might see have an unpredictable but likely negative impact on Pista and Spider values. The SF90. This is a car with an undeniable lure. 1,000hp and being from the self-professed higher Ferrari range. If supply is high enough, a 20% drop in values after, say, 2 years or even less, could pit a used SF90 directly against a used Pista Spider. Some may well say they would still go for that used spider but my guess is that not all will.

    So here is the question; will the used market have enough volume to absorb both the Pistas and the SF90? My guess, and only a guess, is that Pista Spider might just be different enough and rare enough to maintain much of its appeal. But Pista might not. And by ‘maintain its appeal’ I don’t mean investment grade appeal - that is impossible to say because no two used spiders will be alike - I mean will it do well enough to seem like a cheap car to own given the wonderful ownership experience it promises. It got my vote, and still does after the SF90’s launch. Though for full disclosure I am fortunate enough to have both on order. I think the pricier car will stay in my garage for a shorter time though, whereas the spider could be a long-term keeper for me.
     
  23. Lukeylikey

    Lukeylikey Formula 3
    Silver Subscribed

    Mar 3, 2012
    1,766
    UK
    One difference is that 488 spider production and also demand, as I understand it, was much higher than for GTB. Pista Spider supply is less but demand will still be high for the spider, effectively meaning the spider is relatively under supplied compared to coupe.
     
    Il Co-Pilota likes this.
  24. BG23

    BG23 Formula Junior

    Jun 16, 2015
    346
    Australia
    The lightweight special edition cars are low volume and hard to get. The 458 is far better objectively than the 430 scud and likewise 430 to the 360 challenge - but despite this, the values are vastly different. The F8 has the same power, but is heavier and no doubt more "soft and GT" compared to the pista. They are also very easy to get.

    I would be happy to predict the market will always pay a good premium for a pista over an F8 for the simple reason they just didn't make that many. I would add that a 488 with all the options the pista has standard is actually priced higher than a pista. Speccing an F8 with the basic options like a carbon wheel, race seats and a few other goodies will very quickly get you to the price of a pista.
     
  25. Shadowfax

    Shadowfax Formula 3

    Jun 10, 2016
    1,962
    Australia
    #25 Shadowfax, Jun 14, 2019 at 4:37 AM
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2019 at 4:49 AM
    Pista demand is still there with many still asking for allocation with the thought in mind there have been drops offs - which there have been. The market is not what it was plus Ferrari have left many buyers deliberating whether they want to take a massive hit on their entry car/s to get into a model that may suffer similar depreciation levels in the not so distant future.

    Pista Spider demand is much the same with demand outstripping supply. But both scenarios won't last forever. F8 isn't really in the traffic yet least of all available for resale and when that happens we will know who was right and who was wrong re Pista/Pista Spider resale values.
    Naturally I would hope Pista holds up but I'm not banking on that happening after what I've seen happen so far. To kid myself I'm not in for a hit with Pista is asking for disappointment.

    SF90 may be of current interest in the upper echelon of the Ferrari market - being the new boy on the block - but it is in a different category being more the luxo barge rather the lithe track focused car Ferrari is renowned for. At the buy price and, with new models being released, that car really is destined for massive depreciation imo.....unprecedented!

    488spider like 911 cab never return on resale... and 488 Pista spider is not a Speciale A, which has also now become part of the new world order.
     
    SLDriver and tekaefixe like this.

Share This Page